The Super Bowl annually offers the most robust betting options of any sporting event during the calendar year. You can wager on anything from the opening coin toss to the color of the liquid tossed on the winning coach (at offshore sportsbooks, at least). I’m going to focus on the action on the field for this article to try to pick off a big win or two with smaller wagers.
Here are a few of the long shot props I’ve personally bet for this year’s big game. To be clear, I’m not putting full unit bets on these props. I’m putting a fraction of what I typically place on a normal spread or player prop bet. These bets are more for fun but I do think these long-shot bets offer some value. Good luck and, hopefully, one of these long-shot props will hit to make Super Bowl LV a little more fun.
Patrick Mahomes first TD +2200 and last TD +2500 (BetMGM)
We’ve already seen Mahomes score the first touchdown in one of Kansas City’s two playoff games as he opened the scoring against the Browns on a speed-option play at the one-yard line. Mahomes has now scored four rushing TDs in seven career playoff games, and he cashed at +2000 odds as the first touchdown scorer of Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers. He scored on, you guessed it, a speed-option play at the one-yard line.
Andy Reid hasn’t been shy about getting his quarterback on the move near the goal line in the postseason when the fear of injury is a little lower than in the regular season. The big difference this year is that Mahomes comes into the game with a foot injury, which he suffered in the Divisional Round. Mahomes didn’t appear to be hindered too much by the injury in the AFC Championship Game, and he’ll have had an extra two weeks to get close to 100% against the Buccaneers. Risk .25 units at +2200 to win 5.5 units and risk .25 units at +2500 to win 6.25 units.
Cameron Brate first TD +3000 and last TD +2800 (BetMGM)
Brate has emerged as a key weapon for Tom Brady in the postseason with 5+ targets and 3+ catches in each of their three playoff games — he has 10/149/1 receiving on 17 targets overall. Brate is also leading the team in red-zone targets (7) and end-zone targets (3) in the playoffs, which he’s converted into one score against the Packers. Opposing offenses have attacked the Chiefs with their TEs, including in Week 12 when Brate and Rob Gronkowski combined for 10/140 receiving against the Chiefs. Kansas City also gave up 4/59 to David Njoku in the Divisional Round and 6/42/1 receiving to Dawson Knox in the AFC Championship Game, including the first touchdown of the contest. Risk .25 units at +3000 to win 7.5 units and risk .25 units at +2500 to win seven units.
YES +450 (FanDuel) — Will an extra point or field goal attempt hit an upright? (excludes crossbar)
Harrison Butker has already clanged an extra point off of an upright this postseason in the Divisional Round on his way to missing two kicks in that contest against the Browns. We’ve already seen an upright hit five different times in 12 games this postseason (Justin Tucker x2, Tyler Bass, Rodrigo Blankenship, and Butker). Ryan Succop and Butker finished near the bottom of the league in extra-point conversion rates this season. Succop made 91.2% of his extra points (52-of-57) while Butker converted just 88.9% (48-of-54) of his attempts.
The total for the Super Bowl is sitting at 56.5 points so the total is telling us there could be at least eight kicking attempts in what should be a high-scoring affair. Make sure to read the wording carefully on this prop bet because some sportsbooks have completely different definitions on this prop. William Hill has a “Will A Missed Kick Hit An Upright” at +375, which obviously eliminates any converted kicks that would an upright out. Risk .5 units at +450 to win 2.25 units.
Leonard Fournette MVP +3000 (FanDuel)
Playoff Lenny is dominating this backfield over Ronald Jones this postseason. Fournette is averaging 20.7 touches per game and 104.3 scrimmage yards per game in the playoffs and he’s scored in all three postseason games. He’s also seen a 68% snap share or better in all three playoff contests so there’s no denying the Buccaneers are riding Playoff Lenny right now.
Quarterbacks have historically dominated the Super Bowl MVP award — QBs have won the award 8 of the last 11 Super Bowls — so I’m looking for players who aren’t necessarily tied to quarterbacks when I’m looking for long-shot MVP bets. Fournette certainly fits that mold and he’s been an ascending player during the postseason so he’s worth a look at fairly long odds. Playoff Lenny is set to cash in on his postseason run when he enters free agency in March, and he’d love to maybe add an extra million or two to his contract with one more strong showing in the Super Bowl. Risk .25 units at +3000 to win 7.5 units.
Jason Pierre-Paul MVP +10000 (FanDuel)
Pierre-Paul is coming off one of his best games of the season after sacking Aaron Rodgers twice in the NFC Championship Game. JPP comes into the Super Bowl with 11.5 sacks and two interceptions in 19 games this season, and he generated pressure on 15.1% of Mahomes’ 53 dropbacks in this matchup back in Week 12. Pierre-Paul had a season-high eight pressures against the Chiefs with one sack and seven hurries overall, and Kansas City will be playing with two backup tackles in Super Bowl LV in Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie.
Tampa Bay’s defensive line versus Kansas City’s offensive line is the biggest mismatch in this year’s game. It wouldn’t be shocking to see a Buccaneers D-lineman change the trajectory of this game by getting to the normally elusive Mahomes, who has taken just 23 sacks in 17 games this season. I also looked at JPP’s partner in crime, Shaq Barrett, as an MVP bet for basically the same reasons I just laid out. I just couldn’t quite get to the window for him at his 50/1 price but I wouldn’t blame anyone for doing it. Risk .1 units at +10000 to win 10 units.
Mecole Hardman MVP +10000 (FanDuel) and Chiefs D/ST anytime touchdown +550 (BetMGM)
I gave out Hardman at 80/1 MVP odds last year and I’m going back to the well this year. It’s going to be tough for a Chiefs offensive player not named Patrick Mahomes to win the MVP award as we saw last year, when Damien Williams could’ve easily won. Williams became the first player in Super Bowl history to post 100+ rushing yards with a rushing TD and a receiving TD and he still didn’t win the MVP. Hardman has the potential to impact the game in other ways, though, as he could change the game as a kick and punt returner. He has two career return TDs in two seasons, and he’s been more involved as an offensive weapon in the playoffs with 6/62/1 receiving and 2/54 rushing.
The Buccaneers gave up a league-high 33.6 yards per kick return in the regular season, and Saints returner Deonte Harris nearly broke open their Divisional Round contest against Tampa’s punt return unit. Harris had a 54-yard punt return and he also had a 67-yard punt return TD nullified by an illegal block in the first five minutes of the Divisional Round before an injury ended his game later in the first quarter. It’s a long shot (hence, the name of the article), but Hardman has an outside shot to score as a returner while making a big play or two on offense to steal the award from Mahomes. In a correlated bet, I’ll also take a small taste of an anytime Chiefs D/ST touchdown at +550. We would still get a payout if Hardman does score on a return touchdown and he wouldn’t win the MVP, and we’d get an extra juicy payout if he’d happen to get both. Make sure to shop around on Hardman’s odds because he’s as low as +2500 to win the MVP at BetMGM, which is a total stay away at that price. Risk .1 units at +10000 to win 10 units and risk .5 units at +550 to win 2.75 units.
