Player Props Record: 31-16 (66%) Last Week: 7-3 (70%)
We had another strong week in Week 5 winning seven of our ten bets and one of the three bets we lost was due to injury (Barkley). It’s been five straight weeks with a winning record so let’s keep it going!
Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.
It’s been my experience doing this that typically as we progress through the season the books begin to “catch up” to our projections…meaning there tend to be fewer actionable discrepancies the deeper we get into the season. That’s OK though because we’ll take quality over quantity any day and that’s all we need to be winners. Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 6 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.
Javonte Williams vs. LV
| RUSH YDS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| WILLIAMS | OVER 42.5 | 25.5 | -115 | CAESARS |
This is the biggest rushing yards discrepancy on the board this week and I’m hopping on it with confidence. The Broncos are 3.5-point home favorites, the Raiders are a team in turmoil and Melvin Gordon is a little dinged up. Williams has topped this number in all but one game this season and the Raiders rank in the bottom ten in rushing defense. They allowed 139 yards rushing to Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert last week. The Williams total yards prop is appealing as well.
James Robinson vs. MIA
| RUSH YARDS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| ROBINSON | OVER 72.5 | 22.5 | -110 | DK |
It took a minute but the Jacksonville powers that be seem to have figured out that Robinson should be at the center of what they’re doing offensively. He’s responded with some big performances the last few weeks and has topped this rushing prop in three straight. The Jags are only 3-point dogs so the run game should remain in play throughout and the Dolphins are giving up the 9th-most rushing yards to backs this season including 109 to Tampa Bay backs last week.
Ja’Marr Chase @ DET
| RUSH ATTS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| CHASE | OVER 73.5 | 26.5 | -115 | DK |
Chase has been even better than advertised making big plays every week. 26.5 receiving yards is the biggest receiving discrepancy on the board this week. We took Justin Jefferson in this matchup last week and cashed in and we’re doing it again here. Chase has topped this number in each of his last two games.
Marquise Brown vs. LAC
| REC YARDS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| M. BROWN | OVER 59.5 | 15.5 | -115 | CAESARS |
Brown has been very good to us this year and just like last week, once again this yardage prop is just too low. He’s beaten this number in four of his five games this year and with Sammy Watkins out this week he may get an extra look or two in a game that features the third-highest point total of the week. The Chargers haven’t given up a ton of production to WRs this year but we don’t need a ton to win this bet.
Diontae Johnson vs. SEA
| REC YARDS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE | |
| D. JOHNSON | OVER 63.5 | 15.5 | -114 | FD |
This receiving yards number for Johnson is another one that just seems too low. Johnson has topped this number in four straight games and he did it last week on just two targets. JuJu Smith-Schuster is out which certainly helps and the Seahawks are allowing the 2nd-most yards to WRs this season. Just hope that Geno Smith can keep the Seahawks competitive in this one because the Steelers pulled way back on the passing game last week after getting out to a big early lead against Denver.
A.J. Dillon @ CHI
| TOTAL YARDS | PROP | DISCREP | ODDS | SITE |
| DILLON | OVER 40.5 | 22.5 | -130 | DK |
Dillon has rumbled for 97 and 79 total yards the last two weeks with Aaron Jones at less than 100%. Jones is still dealing with an ankle issue that’s limited him in practice all week although he is certain to play on Sunday. The Bears have been good against opposing backs and Dillon has been tough to trust but he’s averaged 14 touches the last two weeks and if he is close to that usage this week he should have no problem topping 40 total yards.
Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 6. Happy Wagering!
