Paul Kelly's Week 8 Props

Player Props Record: 39-20 (66%) Last Week: 3-3 (50%)

We finished at .500 for Week 7 which was the first week all season we didn’t come out ahead. The player projections here on the site have been crushing the books all season so let’s see what discrepancies we can find for Week 8.

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 8 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Tom Brady @ NO

Yes, he’s the GOAT but this discrepancy is too big to ignore. Brady averaged just 215.7 passing yards per game against the Saints last year. Mike Evans has typically been shut down in this matchup and Antonio Brown is out so Brady’s weaponry this week may not be quite as explosive as it usually is.

Matthew Stafford @ HOU

5.5 pass attempts is a notable discrepancy that doesn’t come along every week. The Rams are favored by 16 points as of this writing which should mean the Rams likely won’t need to throw it all that much. Stafford averaged just 27.5 pass attempts in the two games this season that the Rams won by more than two scores.

Carson Wentz vs. TEN

Wentz is healthier than he has been in weeks. He easily topped this number in his first outing against the Titans earlier this season (37 attempts) and the Titans defense has been thrown on an average of 49 times over their last two games. In addition, the Titans are 9th against the run this year and they allowed just 87 rushing yards to the Colts in Week 3 which suggests the Colts may have better success through the air. Also, the Titans offense plays at the fastest pace in the league which could mean the Colts run off more plays than usual this week.

Antonio Gibson @ DEN

I’m always hesitant to take the over on players who are dinged up but Gibson has been removed from the WFT injury report this week so he’s feeling good. He’s topped this number in five of his seven games and missed it by just half a yard last week in a negative game script against the Packers. This Broncos defense just got torn up by the Cleveland Browns third-string running back last week. If Gibson’s shin isn’t a problem he shouldn’t have any issues rushing for 52+ yards.

James Robinson @ SEA

Robinson, who has been good to us this year, has topped this number in four straight games. The Seahawks are 30th against the run and are just 3.5-point home favorites with Geno Smith at QB so the ground game should be in play for the Jags for all four quarters.

Joe Mixon @ NYJ

The Bengals are big 11-point road favorites in this one and should be able to build a lead and then lean on Mixon to grind out the win. The Jets defense is giving up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (113.8) and the second-most carries per game (27.3) to RBs. Nothing scary about the matchup.

Chase Claypool @ CLE

Claypool has topped this number in all three career games against the Browns and with JuJu Smith-Schuster out, he will likely play more snaps than he did in any of those previous games. The Steelers are 3.5-point road dogs which should keep them throwing and the Browns defense has given up the third-most fantasy points to WRs over the last four weeks. This is the biggest receiving yards discrepancy on the board this week.

Ja’Marr Chase @ NYJ

We have been winning with Chase and we’re going to stay on this gravy train because it looks like the books are still underselling him. He has topped this number in four straight games and per our guy Wes Huber, the coverage shells the Jets typically play set up beautifully for Chase. The Bengals are heavy favorites but that’s not enough to make me shy away from this prop.

T.J. Hockenson vs. PHI

The alarm Hock is back to doing what he does best the last couple of weeks (14 catches) now that his knee seems to be less of an issue. The Eagles defense is set up to prevent big plays and they’ve been allowing lots of easy short/intermediate completions which sets up well for Hockenson. They gave up 6 grabs to Foster Moreau last week and 6 grabs to O.J. Howard the week before that so I’m feeling good about Hockenson’s chances to pull down more than 4 balls this week.

***NOTE: Dak Prescott’s status for this week is very much up in the air which is keeping me from including Zeke’s rushing yards prop as a recommendation in this article. If Dak goes I would feel good about it.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 8. Happy Wagering!