It’s time to see what teams were the biggest risers and fallers in the NFL futures market following the 2021 NFL Draft. The big news coming out of the draft surrounded Aaron Rodgers, and his uncertain future has swung the Super Bowl odds and win totals for teams like Green Bay and Denver, but results from the actual draft also changed the outlooks for certain teams.
Remember to always shop around sportsbooks before you place any NFL futures wagers. Sportsbooks will have wildly different odds and totals based on their liabilities with different futures wagers. You can maximize your chances of winning by looking around first and finding the best odds and prices. As always, good luck with your wagers!
POST-DRAFT SEASON WIN TOTALS AND SUPER BOWL LVI ODDS
Teams are ordered by their Super Bowl odds. Win totals Super Bowl LVI odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
| Team | May 7 Win Total (over)/SB Odds | April 27 Win Total (over)/SB Odds |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12 (-143)/+525 | 12 (-121)/+500 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 (-125)/+650 | 11.5 (-125)/+750 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 (+123)/+1300 | 10.5 (+123)/+1400 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 (-155)/+1400 | 10.5 (-143)/+1400 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 (+123)/+1400 | 10.5 (+123)/+1600 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 (-155)/+1500 | 11 (-125)/+1300 |
| Cleveland Browns | 10.5 (+118)/+1600 | 9.5 (-159)/+1600 |
| Green Bay Packers | N/A /+1700 | 10.5 (-162)/+1100 |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 (-155)/+2200 | 7.5 (+100)/+6000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9.5 (-139)/+2500 | 9.5 (-148)/+2800 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 (+110)/+2500 | 9.5 (+110)/+2800 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 10 (+110)/+2800 | 10 (+110)/+2500 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 (-143)/+2800 | 9 (-121)/+2800 |
| New England Patriots | 9 (-134)/+2800 | 9 (-148)/+2800 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9 (-110)/+2800 | 9 (-110)/+2800 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9 (-110)/+3300 | 9 (-107)/+4000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 (-155)/+3300 | 8.5 (-143)/+4000 |
| Tennessee Titans | 9.5 (+133)/+4000 | 9.5 (+123)/+3300 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8 (-143)/+4000 | 8 (-122)/+3300 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 (-118)/+4000 | 8.5 (-121)/+3300 |
| Washington Football Team | 8 (-139)/+5000 | 8 (-134)/+5000 |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 (-125)/+5000 | 7 (-110)/+6000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 (-110)/+5000 | 7 (-143)/+6000 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (+110)/+6600 | 7.5 (-115)/+6000 |
| New York Giants | 7 (-125)/+6600 | 7 (-125)/+6600 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 (-110)/+6600 | 7.5 (-110)/+6000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.5 (-143)/+6600 | 6.5 (-134)/+7000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 (+110)/+8000 | 6.5 (+100)/+7000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.5 (-106)/+10000 | 6.5 (-110)/+8000 |
| New York Jets | 6.5 (+133)/+10000 | 6.5 (+130)/+8000 |
| Detroit Lions | 5 (+100)/+15000 | 5 (+100)/+15000 |
| Houston Texans | 4 (-110)/+17500 | 4.5 (-110)/+15000 |
UPGRADES
Teams that sportsbooks are more optimistic about following the 2021 NFL Draft.
Denver Broncos (7.5 to 8.5 Wins, +6000 to +2200 SB Odds)
The big news coming out of draft weekend had nothing to do with the draft at all. Trouble has been brewing in Green Bay since at least last April when the Packers traded up to draft QB Jordan Love. The bad blood between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers finally boiled over on Day One of the 2021 NFL Draft. Rodgers no longer wants to play for the organization, and the Broncos are the clear front-runner to land Rodgers if he were to be traded in 2021. Sportsbooks will not be left high and dry by any such move so they’ve bumped up Denver’s win total by a full game and raised their odds of winning Super Bowl LVI from +6000 (1.6% implied odds) to +2200 (4.4%). Now would be the time to try to middle the situation if you believe Rodgers won’t play in Denver this season. You could bet under 8.5 wins at a plus price now before betting the over on a shorter win total at a plus price — it was 7.5 at +100 before the draft — if Denver is stuck with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock at quarterback.
Los Angeles Chargers (9 to 9 Wins, +4000 to +3300 SB Odds)
The Chargers went into the NFL Draft looking to address needs along their offensive line, at cornerback, and at wide receiver and they were able to fill all three positions with their first three picks. What’s better is that they were able to land arguably the three best players on the board at the time of their picks and they didn’t have to trade away picks to land Northwest OT Rashawn Slater at No. 13, Florida State CB Asante Samuel at No. 47, and Tennessee WR Josh Palmer at No. 77. GM Tom Telesco set out to improve Justin Herbert’s bad offensive line from 2020, and he did a great job reshaping the unit this off-season by drafting Slater and signing C Corey Linsley and OG Matt Feiler. New HC Brandon Staley also figures to be a major upgrade over Anthony Lynn, who continually gave away victories with poor in-game decisions during his tenure. The Chargers still face an uphill battle to host home playoff games since they’re in the same division as the best team in the NFL, but they’ve certainly narrowed the gap with the Chiefs this off-season.
Minnesota Vikings (8.5 to 8.5 Wins, +4000 to +3300 SB Odds)
The Vikings have quietly gone about their business this off-season, improving their three biggest weaknesses in the secondary (Patrick Peterson) and along their offensive and defensive lines (Dalvin Tomlinson). They specifically attacked their offensive line issues during the draft by selecting Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw, who figures to be a Day One starter at left tackle. More importantly, their Super Bowl odds have improved and their win total has been juiced up because of the chaos unfolding ahead of them in the NFC North with the Packers. The Vikings would likely become the division favorites if Aaron Rodgers ends up not playing for the Packers this season. I thought the Vikings’ Super Bowl odds should’ve been closer to +3000 when they opened at +4400 in early February so the value is all but gone at their current odds.
Chicago Bears (7 to 7.5 Wins, +6000 to +5000 SB Odds)
Andy Dalton’s run as Chicago’s “QB1” lasted 37 exhilarating days. The veteran starting quarterback became Chicago’s QB2 after GM Ryan Pace traded up nine picks to land a falling Justin Fields with the No. 11 pick. Pace claimed that Dalton was still the team’s starter after Day One of the draft, but we’ll see how long that lasts since Pace and HC Matt Nagy are squarely on the chopping block if the Bears don’t improve upon their 8-8 record from 2020. Dalton may in fact start a few games to start this season to give Fields more time to get comfortable with the offense, but it would be a mild upset if Fields isn’t starting by the time the calendar flips to October. Fields could take some time to develop but he’ll instantly give the Bears’ offense a higher ceiling, which is being reflected in their shrinking Super Bowl odds and their rising win total.
DOWNGRADES
Teams that sportsbooks are less optimistic about following the 2021 NFL Draft.
Green Bay Packers (10.5 to N/A, +1100 to +1700)
The Packers have seen their odds plummet after the draft for the second straight year, and some sportsbooks like DraftKings have taken Green Bay’s season win total down because of the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ status for the upcoming season. The Packers will try to mend the situation and they don’t seem to be in much hurry to trade away their star quarterback. We’ll see if the situation changes at all as the season draws closer, but I’m not even eager to bet the Packers’ inflated Super Bowl odds if Rodgers would begrudgingly return to Green Bay. I don’t see a disinterested Rodgers matching his level of play from 2020 when a pissed-off Rodgers took the Packers to the NFC Championship Game while winning the MVP.
Arizona Cardinals (8 to 8 Wins, +3300 to +4000 SB Odds)
The Cardinals had a massive need at cornerback heading into the draft and they passed on top prospects like Greg Newsome and Caleb Farley at No. 16 to take Tulsa LB Zaven Collins. They then drafted Purdue WR Rondale Moore at No. 49 before finally addressing their secondary in the fourth round by selecting Florida CB Marco Wilson. The Cardinals could have one of the worst cornerback groups in the league this season, which is troublesome going against the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf/Tyler Lockett), Rams (Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp), and 49ers (Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel) in the NFC West. The Cardinals are getting closer to making real noise in the NFC but they’re still trailing the rest of their highly competitive division.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5 to 8.5 Wins, +3300 to +4000 SB Odds)
The Steelers faded hard in the final month of the 2020 regular season before allowing 48 points to the Browns in the Wild Card Round, and the betting public is continuing to fade Pittsburgh this off-season. Pittsburgh suffered some big losses in free agency (Bud Dupree, Mike Hilton, Matt Feiler, Steven Nelson, and Ali Villanueva) before failing to address its glaring weaknesses along the offensive line early in this year’s draft. Pittsburgh’s decision-makers are much more optimistic about its young and unproven O-line options than the rest of the public. Pittsburgh also saw the Browns and Ravens crush the draft this year so they’re going to have an uphill battle repeating as the AFC North champions.
Tennessee Titans (9.5 to 9.5 Wins, +3300 to +4000 SB Odds)
The betting public seems to have cooled on the Titans because of three big departures this off-season. Ryan Tannehill no longer has Arthur Smith calling his plays, and he won’t have Jonnu Smith or Corey Davis to throw to this season. Tennessee then bypassed its dire need for receiving help in the draft, which bettors did not like. The Titans elected to take another big swing in the first round for the second straight year by drafting a plummeting Caleb Farley at No. 22. The Virginia Tech CB was once considered a top-10 pick before he needed a second back surgery, and the Titans certainly needed help in their secondary after allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (270.8) last season. The Titans whiffed on Georgia OT Isaiah Wilson in the first round last season, who is already out of the league for his off-the-field behavior.
Houston Texans (4.5 to 4, +15000 to +175000)
The Texans raised eyebrows across the league when they used their first pick in the NFL Draft to take Stanford QB Davis Mills at No. 67. The selection is yet another signal that Deshaun Watson may have played his final snap for the Texans. Houston has now brought in three quarterbacks this off-season in Mills, Tyrod Taylor, and Ryan Finley. Watson’s legal issues aren’t going away any time soon, which has also made him virtually impossible to trade at this point. His future in Houston is all but non-existent barring a major turn of events, and Watson’s alleged incidents of sexual misconduct could keep him off the field for some or all of 2021. With the NFL going to 17 games in 2021, the Texans now have one of the worst win totals you’ll ever see at just four wins. I doubt sportsbooks will be seeing much action on the over with Watson’s future in flux.
