I’m pumped for another fun, high-scoring Saturday Main slate!
This Saturday slate provides so many solid QB options at different price points. Do we pay up for two high-priced QBs or do we try to save salary to spend on RBs and WRs? Which Georgia RB do we choose to insert in our lineup versus Missouri? Is Ky Thomas the best RB value on the slate? Is David Bell going to bounce-back versus Michigan State this week? Is Danny Gray a lock at WR versus a horrid Memphis pass defense?
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
Michigan State (-3) vs Purdue
SMU (-4.5) vs Memphis
Wake Forest (+2.5) vs UNC
Total Wagers
Michigan State vs Purdue (Over 53.5)
SMU vs Memphis (Under 70.5)
Baylor vs TCU (Over 58.5)
Quarterbacks
Tanner Mordecai, SMU vs Memphis (DK: $9.0K | FD: $11.2K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 37.75)
Tanner Mordecai has been phenomenal for SMU all season averaging 4 passing TDs per game for 34.2 FPG. Mordecai has been incredibly consistent scoring 30-plus FPs in all but two games this year. He faces a weak Memphis DEF ranked 92nd in QB FPG (24.8) and 97th in PASS YPG (252.0). Mordecai is almost a guarantee to hit value at $9.0K on this slate.
Malik Willis, Liberty vs Mississippi (DK: $9.3K | FD: $10.2K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 29.25)
Malik Willis gets to revisit an old SEC foe from his Auburn days this week versus Mississippi. This is a huge matchup for Willis as he looks to solidify himself as Day 1 or Day 2 QB in the NFL draft. Willis has been stellar this year averaging 221.2 YPG through the air and an additional 76.0 YPG on the ground for 32.5 FPG. He faces an Ole Miss DEF ranked 104th in QB FPG (26.4) and 90th in PASS YPG (245.4). They have really struggled versus Konami Code QBs like Willis this year. When allowing opposing QBs to rush for 79-plus yards, they are giving up an average of 40.97 FPG. Willis is primed to have a big game and smash value at $9.3K.
Really looking forward to watching Liberty QB Malik Willis vs Ole Miss on Saturday. He bounced back from injury with 7TDs and no INTs the past two weeks. With Willis and Matt Corral, we get to see two of the top-3 2022 QB prospects on the same field. Great scouting opportunity!
— Todd McShay (@McShay13) November 1, 2021
Sean Clifford, Penn State vs Maryland (DK: $6.0K | FD: $11.2K | O/U: 55.5 | Implied: 33.0)
Sean Clifford is averaging 19.6 FPG despite facing three top-40 defenses in QB FPG. He is the best value play on the slate at $6.0K facing a weak Maryland DEF. This Maryland DEF is ranked 70th in QB FPG (22.4) and 83rd in PASS YPG (241.5). I expect him to have a really high ownership percentage making him a solid Cash play that allows us to spend up on other players.
Alternatives:
Sam Hartman, Wake Forest vs North Carolina (DK: $10.0K | FD: $11.4K | O/U: 76.5 | Implied: 37.0)
Sam Howell, North Carolina vs Wake Forest(DK: $9.8K | FD: $11.5K | O/U: 76.5 | Implied: 39.5)
Aidan O’Connell, Purdue vs Michigan State (DK: $5.6K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 53.5 | Implied: 25.25)
Chandler Morris, TCU vs Baylor (DK: $4.5K | FD: $7.9K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 26.0)
Running Backs
Abram Smith, Baylor vs TCU (DK: $7.3K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 32.5)
Abram Smith is quickly becoming one of my favorite RBs to watch. Over the last two games, Smith is averaging 23.5 carries, 150.5 rushing yards and 2 TDs per game for 34.4 FPG. He has a great matchup versus the reeling TCU DEF. They are currently ranked 117th in RB FPG (31.0), 116th in RUSH YPG (204.38) and 119th in RUSH YPC (5.31). With Gary Patterson gone, this TCU team is lost and in absolute turmoil. Smith is going to have a huge game as my RB lock of the week on the main slate.
Abram Smith has taken control of the Baylor backfield in recent weeks.
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) November 4, 2021
Among Big 12 RBs, only Bijan Robinson and Zach Evans have averaged more yards after contact per attempt pic.twitter.com/7BnXNEUzhw
Ky Thomas, Minnesota vs Illinois (DK: $5.0K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 44.0 | Implied: 29.25)
Ky Thomas has stepped up since the injury to Treyson Potts. Over the last two games, Thomas is averaging 21 carries and 122.5 YPG on the ground for 19.3 FPG. Minnesota has only two healthy RBs left after Bryce Williams was lost for the season. Thomas is set to have a significant workload for the rest of the season, even if he splits carries with Mar’Keise Irving. The Illinois DEF is ranked 78th in RUSH YPG (160.33) and 81st in RUSH YPC (4.22). At $5.0K, Thomas is cheap for his potential production on this slate.
Kenny McIntosh, Georgia vs Missouri (DK: $3.9K | FD: $5.2K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 49.5)
Kenny McIntosh is the third-string RB for Georgia so why is he mentioned in this article? This is purely a game script and matchup play as Georgia is facing the terrible Missouri run defense as 39-point favorites. As a refresher, this Missouri DEF is ranked 129th in RB FPG (40.2), 130th in RUSH YPG (283.88) and 129th in RUSH YPC (6.26). I expect Georgia to sit their top two RBs, Zamir White and James Cook, after the first half while Kendall Milton is still recovering from a knee injury. The second half of this game should be the Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards show. At $3.9K, McIntosh needs only 11.7 FPs to hit value on this slate.
Alternatives:
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State vs Nebraska (DK: $7.9K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 64.5 | Implied: 39.75)
Jaylen Warren, Oklahoma State vs West Virginia (DK: $6.4K | FD: $8.9K | O/U: 49.0 | Implied: 26.25)
Zamir White, Georgia vs Missouri (DK: $7.1K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 49.5)
Kendre Miller, TCU vs Baylor (DK: $5.7K | FD: $6.7K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 26.0)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Zander Horvath, Purdue vs Michigan State (DK: $3.9K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 53.5 | Implied: 25.25)
Tyler Lavine, SMU vs Memphis (DK: $3.0K | FD: $4.8K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 37.75)
Receivers
David Bell, Purdue vs Michigan State (DK: $7.4K | FD: $8.9K | O/U: 53.5 | Implied: 25.25)
David Bell is coming off a season-high 14 targets versus Nebraska. Bell is primed for a huge game versus a weak Michigan State PASS DEF ranked 127th in PASS YPG (300.5) and 124th in WR FPG (31.8). Last week versus Michigan, they gave 45.2 FPs to their WRs on 27 targets, 16 catches, 265 yards, and 3 TDs. After two tough matchups versus Wisconsin and Nebraska, this is a great opportunity for Bell to bounce-back with a huge game.
Danny Gray, SMU vs Memphis (DK: $6.2K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 37.75)
Danny Gray is the top WR for an explosive SMU offense averaging 7.9 targets, 5.6 receptions, and 85.3 YPG for 20.4 FPG. This Memphis DEF is ranked dead last at 134th in WR FPG (36.5) and 97th in PASS YPG (252.0). Gray is too cheap at $6.2K for his explosive potential in a game with an implied total of 70.5 points.
Jahcour Pearson, Mississippi vs Liberty (DK: $4.9K | FD: $6.3K | O/U: 68.0 | Implied: 38.75)
Jahcour Pearson appears to be the last man standing in the Mississippi receiving core after they lost Jonathan Mingo, Dontario Drummond and Braylon Sanders to injury. Last game, Pearson had 9 targets, 7 receptions, and 135 yards for 23.5 FPs versus Auburn. Pearson should be in-line for another big game versus Liberty with an implied team total of 28.75 points. At $4.9K, Peason is set to be one of the more popular plays on this slate.
Matt Corral has targeted Casey Kelly and Jahcour Pearson 15 times tonight. They've combined to catch 12 passes for 184 yards. #OleMiss back in the red zone.
— Nick Suss (@nicksuss) October 31, 2021
Ke’Shawn Williams, Wake Forest vs North Carolina (DK: $4.2K | FD: $5.8K | O/U: 76.5 | Implied: 37.0)
Ke’Shawn Williams has been phenomenal the last two weeks averaging 3 catches, 75 yards and a TD for 16.5 FPG. He appears to be stepping up as the third WR for Wake Forest and is a sneaky good play versus North Carolina. This game has the highest implied total on the slate at 76.5 points. This North Carolina DEF is ranked 74th in WR FPG (23.8), 59th in PASS YPG (221.0) and 83rd in PASS YPA (7.6). Both of these offenses play at an extremely fast pace averaging 142 plays per game between the two of them. If you’re looking for a cheaper option in this game, Williams is an intriguing one to consider.
Alternatives:
Josh Downs, North Carolina vs Wake Forest (DK: $8.7K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 76.5 | Implied: 39.5)
Chris Olave, Ohio State vs Nebraska (DK: $6.9K | FD: $9.1K | O/U: 64.5 | Implied: 39.75)
Reggie Roberson, SMU vs Memphis (DK: $5.7K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 37.75)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Sean Dykes, Memphis vs SMU (DK: $4.3K | FD: $7.5K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 32.75)
Grant Calcaterra, SMU vs Memphis (DK: $4.0K | FD: $5.6K | O/U: 70.5 | Implied: 37.75)