I’m studying all the matchups and everything all week, and I do the projections on the site, so it’s really easy for me to simply head to our DFS projections and sort by Point Per Dollar Value to start my search for the best ROI based on salary and our projections. I scan those for each position and the final step is adding my gut feeling on the player’s matchup, upside, etc.
Last week was pretty tough, with more poor calls than usual, but I feel good after making adjustments based on the opener, so this week’s going to be a lot better.
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Justin Herbert (LAC, vs. Dal - $6700 on DK, $7600 on FD) - He’s the #1 value on both sites and I do not give a rat’s ass what happens: he’s someone to be all in on this week. Dallas won’t have DE DeMarcus Lawrence, so Herbert is going to be a statue in the pocket and pick them apart.
Dak Prescott (Dal, $6800 on DK, $8000 on FD) - We’re looking at another 50+ attempts this week. He’s the #2 value at QB on both sites.
Tom Brady (TB, at Atl - $6900 on DK, $8200 on FD) - He’s the #4 value on both sites. He’s pricey, but despite that fact he should return a nice ROI with this pristine matchup. I’m thinking about the famous quote from Teddy KGB from the movie ‘Rounders,’ which is “pay that man his money” only this quote is “pay the money for that man.’
Jalen Hurts (Phi, vs. SF - $6500 on DK, $7800 on FD) - Amazingly good showing last week from the coaches and Hurts, and the production should continue against a depleted 49er secondary and coverage shells that Hurts excels against. The 49er front is nasty, but the Eagle OL was elite last week.
Matthew Stafford (LAR, at Ind - $6400 on DK, $7500 on FD) - Loved Stafford last week and he was great, and he’s looking good again this week with CB Xavier Rhodes out. That’s a massive loss because they do not have the outside CBs to slow the Rams down.
Joe Burrow (Cin, at Chi - $5800 on DK, $7100 on FD) - He’s a top-10 value on both sites, but a little better on DK. He looked good last week putting up 261/2 passing on only 27 attempts, which was a 74% completion rate and 9.7 YPA. The Bears last week gave up a 77% completion rate and a whopping 12.3 YPA to the Rams, and Burrow’s deep receiving corps should give them all kinds of problems.
Mac Jones (NE, at NYJ - $5400 on DK, $6800 on FD) - He’s a better value on DK for sure, where I think he can easily deliver 3X value with 250 yards and 2 TDs.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Kyler Murray (Ari, vs. Min - $8200 on DK, $8700 on FD) - Murray won’t have to worry about LB Anthony Barr and DE Everson Griffen, who are out, and the Vikings allowed 261/2 passing on only 27 attempts against Joe Burrow in his first game back from his major ACL injury. That’s a 74% completion rate and 9.7 YPA.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb (Cle, at Hou - $7800 on DK, $8400 on FD) - The Texans roster is so bad, and we’ll truly get a feel for that after the Browns run for 200+ yards against them this week.
Javonte Williams (Den, at Jax - $4400 on DK, $5500 on FD) - Hey, take away that 70-yard run from Melvin Gordon (against a worn down defense) and Williams was dead even with him in terms of snaps, touches, and even routes run. And Williams played better overall other than Gordon’s big run. The matchup is too tasty and the price too low to pass on. I like teaming him with Christian McCaffrey this week.
Joe Mixon (Cin, at Chi - $7000 on DK, $7800 on FD) - We should feel very good about his huge Week 1 role, and his matchup is nice, since the Bengals should move the ball via the air with ease.
Chase Edmunds (Ari, vs. Min - $4900 on DK, $6000 on FD) - He’s a top-6 value on both sites, but #3 on DK. I thought he looked great last week, and the Vikings are without a couple of key guys, namely Anthony Barr. The Vikings gave up 149 rushing yards and 5/30 receiving last week.
Damien Harris (NE, at NYJ - $5400 on DK, $6200 on FD) - He’s a top-5 value on both sites. There’s risk if he doesn’t score or fumbles again, but also a legit 100+ yard/TD potential in a plus matchup overall.
Chris Carson (Sea, vs. Ten - $6100 on DK, $6700 on FD) - I’m not assuming the Titans are dead, but they may be in trouble in this one with Russell Wilson taking aim at a secondary that got roasted last week, due in part to having no pass rush.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Austin Eckler (LAC, vs. Dal - $7300 on DK, $7000 on FD) - He’s actually a better value on FD, but he’s looking good no matter what behind their improved OL (although they won’t have RT Bulaga) against this bad defense. Dallas gave up 7 catches to RBs last week, and Eckler will get targets.
Najee Harris (Pit, vs. LV - $6300 on DK, $6100 on FD) - He’s a MUCH better value on FD, and delivering 3x value on DK may be tough, but it’s doable since the Raiders gave up 4.7 YPC and 2 rushing TDs to Ravens RBs (both backup types) last week.
Kenyan Drake (LV, vs. - $4900 on DK, $5500 on FD) - He may be a value, but then again he’s The Drake, and The Drake screws us on the regular. However, with Josh Jacobs out, 4-5 catches should be a lock for Drake, and he’s certainly talented enough to take control of the early-down work over Peyton Barber, who just joined the team a few weeks ago.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen (LAC, vs. Dal - $7000 on DK, $7400 on FD) - He’s a top-4 value on both sites and could get 200+ yards if they really tried in this one. They won’t try like that, but he’ll get 100.
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, at Chi - $5000 on DK, $5500 on FD) - He’s a top-5 value on both sites because he’s still underpriced. But the Bears secondary got roasted last week, and that was expected because they have issues.
Tyler Boyd (Cin, at Chi - $4700 on DK, $5700 on FD) - He’s not an amazing value, but he could pop majorly this week with a very good matchup in the slot.
Mike Williams (LAC, vs. Dal - $5600 on FD) - He’s looking good no matter what in this tasty matchup, but he’s a way better value on FD.
Marquez Callaway (NO, at Car - $4200) - He’s not much of a value on FD, so this is DK only, where he’s a top-4 value. Sorry about last week, but our guy Wes Huber likes the coverage matchup, good enough for me, and this game won’t play out like last week’s.
Jalen Waddle (Mia, vs. Buf - $4600 on DK, $5500 on FD) - He’s a better value on DK only, but still top-11 on FD. With Will Fuller out and a high-scoring game possible, you gotta like Waddle’s chances after he looked like a major factor in their passing game last week.
Jakobi Meyers (NE, at NYJ - $5100 on DK, $5500 on FD) - He’s a better value on FD for sure, but I like Myers this week despite them being significant favorites. Dude’s out there a lot and Mac Jones is good.
Cedrick Wilson (Chi, vs. Cin - $3100 on DK) - DK only, since he’s buried on the values rankings on FD. He’s a good player who flashed last week, and he’s a literal lock to hit 3x return playing the Michael Gallup role.
Terrace Marshall (Car, vs. NO - $3100 on DK) - If he gets 9.3 PPR points, this will be a win, and I think he’ll get 9.3 PPR points.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cle, vs. NO - $3000 on DK) - I need only 9 points from him to deliver, and his usage was good in terms of snaps and routes, so I’m thinking he gets 9+ points.
Darnell Mooney (Chi, vs. Cin - $4400 on DK) - DK only just in case he’s hurt by QB play, which he was last week, by the way, missing out on a TD because he played with Andy Dalton. I have a sneaking suspicion we may see Justin Fields inserted into the lineup if Dalton isn’t getting it done against his old team. That was my initial call back in July, adjusted to Week 4 in August.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
DeVonta Smith (Phi, vs. SF - $5400 on DK, $5600 on FD) - He’s actually a value on FD, but barely top-20 on DK. Regardless, we all like the matchup and he looks like a high-volume guy already.
Allen Robinson (Chi, vs. Cin - $6200 on DK, $7200 on FD) - If Andy Dalton plays well, great, then A-Rob will produce in this plus matchup. If not, I think we’ll see Justin Fields, so it’s possible that Robinson can’t fail this week.
Antonio Brown (TB, vs. Atl - $6000 on DK, $6400 on FD) - Incredible last week, incredible matchup this week. Tom Brady put up with all his BS the last 1-2 years because he knows how perfect a marriage he and Brown are.
DK Metcalf (Sea, vs. Ten - $7600 on DK, $7000 on FD) - Titans are in trouble if the Seahawks jump out to an early lead, so look for them to try to jump out to an early lead by feeding DK the ball.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee (LAR, at Ind - $4100 on DK, $5600 on FD) - He’s the top value on both sites per my projections. His usage was incredibly encouraging last week, and the Colts gave up 5/57/1 to the lame Seahawk TEs last week.
TJ Hockenson (Det, at GB - $5500 on DK, $6400 on FD) - He’s a top-7 value on both sites, despite being a little pricier. Good scheme matchup, the Packers gave up 6/36/2 to Saints TEs last week, and he should see 12+ targets.
Mike Gesicki (Mia, at GB - $4000 on DK, $5300 on FD) - He’s a top-8 value on both sites, and he does usually crush the Bills. It's entirely possible this one is a “Gesicki game.” If not, he’s dead to us forever.
Dallas Goedert (Phi, vs. SF - $4600 on DK, $5800) - He will have to score in this one to come through, but we’re seeing a big play down the seam, and if he gets it and hits paydirt, it’s huge.
Cole Kmet (Chi, vs. Cin - $3700 on DK) - He’s boring as hell, but he should get 11+ PPR points as they play from behind, and he’s the guy.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
George Kittle (SF, at Phi - $6400 on DK, $6700 on FD) - He’s a much better value on FD, but we saw what he did to the Eagles last year, right? New system, but I’m still looking at home as a swing for the fences pick.
Primetime Players
Aaron Rodgers (GB, vs. Det - $6600 on DK, $8000 on FD) - He’ll likely be popular, and they could run for 3-4 TDs. Then again, Angry Aaron could throw for 450 with 4-5 TDs in such an insanely good matchup. He’s the #3 value at QB on both sites.
Aaron Jones (GB, vs. Det - $6800 on DK, $7000 on FD) - We all know he’s volatile, but when he hits, he hits big, and he may hit big in this choice matchup, so if I’m doing multiple lineups, I want Jones in at least one of them.
AJ Dillon (GB, vs. Det - $4500 on DK, $5500 on FD) - He’s a much better value on DK, but top-11 on both sites. I already can’t quit Dillon despite the fact that we’ve yet to see him play in a “normal” game this year. We should this week, but it could once again be “abnormal,” but in a good way in that Dillon may get more volume than usual as they blow out the Lions. I’d be stunned if he didn’t get 12+ touches and 70+ yards, so all he should need to be a great pick is a TD.
Tyreek Hill (KC, at Bal - $8400 on DK, $8700 on FD) - Hill, who I nicknamed this week “The Cheetah Code,” may just be a cheat code. He’s basically been one dating back to last year. He dropped 21 FP on them last year on only 6 targets, and they're thinned in the secondary. He’s the top value on both sites.
Davante Adams (GB, vs. Det - $8300 on DK, $8300 on FD) - He’s the #2 value on FD, but only 11th-best on DK. Regardless, we know he’s getting 1 TD, so it’s mainly a question of does he get two?
