Week 6 treated me pretty well at QB, with Josh Allen (QB1), Patrick Mahomes (QB7), Joe Burrow (QB8), Carson Wentz (QB15), Tua Tagovailoa (QB10), and Trevor Lawrence (QB16) delivering solid ROIs. But there was a major buzzkill on the higher end with Lamar Jackson (QB21) and on the lower-end with Taylor Heinicke (QB25).
The RB calls were good, with Jonathan Taylor (RB3), Joe Mixon (RB4), and Najee Harris (RB6) featured, plus love was given to Darrel Williams (RB7) and James Robinson (RB10) and they did well. Javonte Williams (RB29) did come up pretty small, and Kareem Hunt (RB25) got hurt. He did miss out on only 20% of the snaps, so he was likely a weak call. Also, I was a week too early on Javonte.
At WR, a bit of a mixed bag, but solid inclusions like Stefon Diggs (WR7), Ja’Marr Chase (WR25), Brandin Cooks (WR18), Tyreek Hill (WR10), and Darnell Mooney (WR21). But DJ Moore (WR33) was lame and I once again missed on trying to get Ws with cheap slot receivers. Even worse, Randall Cobb and Adam Humphries were complete no-shows. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR46) was lame and Kadarius Toney got hurt. Toney would have probably caught 15 balls if healthy.
The TE calls were pretty good with Mark Andrews (TE4), Ricky Seals-Jones (TE6), Mo Allie-Cox (TE17), and Hunter Henry (TE15). Dan Arnold (TE32) did let me down.
I think I have as good of a feel for the picks right now as I’ve had all year, so with a few adjustments, we’re on to Week 7.
Keep in mind, I’m not looking for every single possible play; just the ones that jump out at me based on player, cost, matchup, and any other mitigating circumstances.
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Aaron Rodgers (KC, vs. — $7500 DK, $7900 FD) — A top-5 value on both sites, he should obliterate their horrible secondary. I’m looking for a lot of man coverage, which is what they do more than most, and for Davante Adams and Rodgers to have another one of those pitch-and-catch games like they’re doing whatever they want.
Patrick Mahomes (KC, vs. — $8400 DK, $8800 FD) — He’s the top value on both sites and it has to be done. If they can protect, Mahomes should destroy their depleted secondary. They will be forced to play a lot of zone, so it should be a lot of easy pitch and catch to Tyreek Hill, similar to the Eagles game two weeks ago. If Mahomes lets us down, it will likely be due to an improved Titans pass rush. KC knows this and they will devote resources to pass protect, as they did last week.
Matt Ryan (Atl, at Mia — $5700 DK, $7300 FD) — He’s a top-2 value on DK and seventh-best on FD. We do have some rain in the forecast, so check that on Sunday, but this is a really good spot. Ryan’s topped 21+ FP in each of his last two games as they are going with more vertical routes, and he’s hit 2 TDs or more in four straight. The Dolphins are giving up the third-most passing yards per game (307.5) to QBs. They’re particularly bad out of the slot, and their outside CBs have been banged up and have struggled (CBs Byron Jones and Xavien Howard are still questionable). Russell Gage is back, as well.
Ryan Tannehill (Ten, vs. KC — $6400 DK, $7600 FD) — He’s a top-7 value on both sites, a little better on FD (4). It’s actually looking okay for Julio Jones, which is huge. AJ Brown said he was good to go on Friday. Tannehill’s TD rate is just 3.0%, so he’s due for some regression and KC gave up 28+ FP in four straight games before Taylor Heinicke last week. With an insanely high expected total of 57.5, I’m in.
Justin Fields (Chi, at TB — $5300 DK, $6500 FD) — I may not go FD with this, but he is the #8 value on FD, which is decent. He’s the fourth-best on DK. The Bucs do still have a ton of injuries, with LB Lavonte David and CB Richard Sherman out, and DE Jason Pierre-Paul likely out. Top CBs Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting are also still on IR. At the end of the day, to have any chance of winning, Fields has to either throw it 35+ times or run it 10+ times, or both. They will not be able to run the ball with their RBs, so the game has to be in Fields’ hands. I wouldn’t actually watch the game because it could look ugly, but the man is coming out of this one with 16+ FP, which qualifies as a win.
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia, vs. Atl — $5500 DK, $7100 FD) — Once again, a much better value on DK (3) compared to FD (9). I might bail from Tua if the rainy weather is an issue Sunday, or if Davante Parker can’t go. But if Parker’s in and the weather isn’t brutal, this is a good spot for Tua. Miami is all about the pass lately, averaging a whopping 42 passes per game over the last five weeks, due to their non-existent running game and underachieving defense. The Falcons are giving up the eighth-most FPG (22.5) to QBs this season, and it helps that edge rusher Dante Fowler is out for Atlanta. Tua’s a good bet to hit 18-20 FP and deliver a nice ROI, even if Parker is out.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Jalen Hurts (Phi, at LV — $6900 DK, $8300 FD) — With Hurts, it usually comes down to the coverage he’s facing in terms of whether or not he’ll move the ball via the forward pass. Per our Wes Huber, Hurts is best against cover-3, which Greg Cosell cosigned this week and is what the Raiders run at the league’s highest rate. So I expect passing success, and I always expect rushing success.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Ten, vs. KC — $9200 DK, $11,000 FD) — Henry had 257/3 rushing in two matchups against Kansas City during the 2019 season. The Chiefs haven’t been run on much lately, but that’s about to change, and another 1-2 TDs and 100+ yards is also coming.
Darrel Williams (KC, at Ten — $5800 DK, $6700 FD) — I was in last week, and he was huge, so I’m back. Over the past two weeks (minus CEH), Williams has handled 26 of 30 carries and 9 of 13 targets out of the backfield with 15.6 carries, 5.5 targets and 19.2 fantasy points per four quarters (RB6). There’s nothing particularly scary about the matchup, as the Titans are giving up 4.9 YPC to RBs and 5/34 receiving the last four weeks. With an insanely high expected total of 57.5, he’s once again a good bet to score.
Darrell Henderson (LAR, vs. — $6600 DK, $8000 FD) — A top-9 value on both sites, it’s all systems go on Henderson, who is coming off a season-best 23 touches with 82% of the snaps against the bad Giants last week. Joe Mixon crushed an even worse Lions D last week for 23/153/1 scrimmage last week, and Detroit has now allowed 22+ FP to RBs in three straight games (Mixon, Mattison, Montgomery).
Chubba Hubbard (Car, at NYG — $6100 DK, $7300 FD) — A top-9 value on both sites, he’s a slightly better value on DK. Hubbard’s been 65% of the snaps the last two weeks but that number could climb as they look to take the ball out of Sam Darnold’s hands. The Giants got hit with 24/107/2 scrimmage by Darrell Hnderson last week and now give up the seventh-most FPG (27.8) to RBs.
Damien Harris (NE, vs. NYJ — $5700 DK, $6800 FD) — A top-9 value on both sites. It should be a lopsided win for the Patriots against the rookie QB, who they crushed about a month ago in NY/NJ. Harris should do better than the 16/62/1 rushing he put up in that first meeting. The Jets are giving up the most FPG (33.2) to RBs
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
None of note
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams (GB, vs. — $8900 DK, $9000 FD) — He’s the top value on both sites. Yeah, I and we are all in on Rodgers-Adams with this tasty matchup. It’s going to be a buzzkill if he doesn’t drop at least 20 points.
Tyreek Hill (KC, at Ten — $8600 DK, $8500 FD) — He’s the #2 value on both sites right behind Adams, and I’m and we’re all in on Hill, as well, based on matchup. Tennessee recently lost corners Kristian Fulton and Caleb Farley, so they will have to zone it up this week, and Tyreek can just run to the soft spots all day. He’s on the injury report, but he plays hurt.
Calvin Ridley (Atl, at Mia — $6600 DK, $7300 FD) — Miami plays man coverage at the fifth-highest rate, and Ridley’s aDOT jumped from 9.0 yards to 15.1 in his last game, so Ridley is likely licking his chops. The Dolphins have allowed three perimeter WRs (Marvin Jones, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown) to post 6+ catches, 100+ yards, and 1+ TDs in the last two weeks. And we’re still wondering if CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones will go. Jones, if he goes, may lock up Kyle Pitts, and I’m just not worried about Howard, who is the subject of trade rumors this week.
Tee Higgins (Cin, at TB — $4900 DK, $6100 FD) — We expect the Ravens to match all-world CB Marlon Humphrey on Ja’Marr Chase. Higgins does lead their WR trio in targets in the four games Higgins, Chase, and Tyler Boyd have played together, and we have confidence Joe Burrow can pass against Baltimore. Higgins is also due.
Darnell Mooney (Chi, at TB — $4600 DK, $5900 FD) — Mooney has 15+ FP in two of his four games with Justin Fields, with one of those efforts last week. The depleted Bucs secondary has allowed the fifth-most FPG (41.4) to WRs this season, so Mooney looks good for another 12-15 FP with some volume likely.
Mecole Hardman (KC, at Ten — $4300 DK, $5400 FD) — Ok, I’ll bite. He’s a top-7 value on both sites. Demarcus Robinson emerged from the dead last week and he did run more routes (39 to 37) with more FP (13.6 to 9.8) than Hardman last week, but Hardman’s role and flow within the offense has improved lately, as Hardman has put up his two best receiving totals the last two weeks for a combined 13/138 receiving, and the matchup is fantastic against a depleted secondary. As we saw last week with Emmanuel Sanders (5/91 receiving) and Cole Beasley (7/88/1) in this matchup, there’s a ton of upside.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
DJ Moore (Car, at NYG — $7100 DK, $7700 FD) — He’s a solid value on FD, but not so much on DK. The Giants secondary has been brutal this year, giving up the second-most FPG to outside WRs and the most yards per game (108). CeeDee Lamb got 4/84/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and Cooper Kupp dropped 9/130/2 last week soooooooo.
Chris Godwin (TB, vs. Chi — $5900 DK, $6700 FD) — It’s a guess, but the Bears last week had top corner Jaylen Johnson travel with Davante Adams, and that worked, so they may do the same with Mike Evans. Even if they don’t, Godwin will likely see less of Johnson than Evans, and whenever he’s in the slot, Godwin has a good matchup, as the Bears have given up the 11th-most FPG to slot receivers. Tyler Johnson will get some of that, but Antonio Brown is out and Godwin is due.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller (LV, vs. Phi — $6700 DK, $6800 FD) — He’s only the seventh-best value on DK, but he’s actually the best value on FD. The Eagles do a good job of limiting big plays, and they are stingy against outside and slot receivers. But against TEs they can be had in the middle of the field, so I think it’s a Waller day.
Mike Gesicki (Mia, vs. Atl — $4700 DK, $6800 FD) — He’s a top-2 value on both sites. Gesicki has been hot, and I’d keep rolling with it. He’s hit 16+ FP in three of his last four and looked great last week with Tua, putting up 8/115 receiving on nine targets. If Davante Parker is out, even better.
Ricky Seals-Jones (WFT, at GB — $3700 DK, $5400 FD) — He’s the top value on DK and #6 on FD. He’s been all over the place the last two weeks and he’s looking good again for some volume, since TFT should be playing from way behind. The Packers haven’t faced much of a chancellege at TE latey, but they did give up 17+ FP to to the TE in their first three games.
Dallas Goedert (Phi, at LV — $4600 DK, $5900 FD) — Maybe some risk coming off the covid list, but we got news of his availability early on Friday, which is a good sign. He’s the #6 value on DK and the #3 value on FD.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
None of note.
Primetime Players
Alvin Kamara (NO, at Sea — $8900 DK, $9200 FD) — He’s a slightly better value on FD, but he’s far down the values list. The Seahawks are an absolute mess on defense and their offense won’t likely do much with injuries at RB and Geno Smith playing QB. Najee Harris finished with 24/81 rushing and 6/46/1 receiving against the Seahawks last week, so expect plenty of volume coming off the bye against a defense giving up 27 RB carries a game the last four weeks.
