General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
It’s pretty shocking to watch the Chiefs’ offense flounder this season, but at ten weeks in we can’t call it an aberration any longer. It’s obvious that there is an issue. Gregg Cosell mentioned that Mahomes is not seeing the field well or playing within the progression of the offense, meaning he isn’t going through his progressions correctly and he’s just kind of winging it. Single-game slates obviously leave us without a choice. Tyreek Hill always possesses a 50-point ceiling like he reached early in the season. The Raiders have been solid against WRs, but we can’t ignore Hill’s 29% target market share and 40% air yards share.
Travis Kelce has been suffering the impact of the Chiefs’ offense sputtering. He finally had found the end zone last week after being shut out for what seemed like two months. Kelce sees a both an air yards share and target share at 23%. Obviously on a single game slate Kelce is squarely in play.
Darrel Williams provides a solid middle tier value that will allow you to avoid the absolute punt value range if you slot him into the captain. The Raiders are a run-funnel defense allowing a bottom-five 133 yards per game on the ground. Williams has 42 opportunities in his last two games. If Williams sees another 20+ carries/targets he will have a great chance to land as the optimal captain.
Darren Waller has been used a ton by the Raiders as a Cover-1 beater. The Raiders run a play out of the trips formation with Waller in the middle where he runs a post across the field. They clear out the opposite side of the field with a dig route. I’d expect Waller to notch a chunk play or two against that look. Waller, much like Kelce, has been somewhat quiet on ceiling games, but he has the ability against this Chiefs’ defense that is allowing the third most points to tight ends.
Hunter Renfrow has been locked in over the last few weeks seeing eight targets in four of his last five games. He’s notched seven receptions in his last two games as well. With the loss of Ruggs, it opens up some more targets for Refrow as well. I think he makes sense with a Chiefs heavy lineup or a slugfest projected lineup as he should rack up the catches and has the best chance to hit a median score without scoring a touchdown.
Josh Jacobs is a nice contrarian captain on this slate. He’s been banged up throughout the season, but now gets a Chiefs’ defense allowing 121 yards per game on the ground. The Raiders game plan could very well be to pound the football and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. Jacobs also has the ability to snipe two touchdowns from the goal line as well.
Flex
Kenyan Drake has been super dynamic with Jacobs or without. He’s probably my favorite cheap flex play for his price. He’s got at least 16 fantasy points in his last three games and that’s with Josh Jacobs on the field. The best part is he has been doing it on the ground and through the air so there isn’t a game script we need to shoot for, he’s just a good play.
Bryan Edwards is at least on the field more with Ruggs off the team. He hasn’t been performing well, but anything can happen on a showdown slate. He saw four targets last week and didn’t reel any of them in. He makes sense if you feel your lineup is chalky. Drake is about the same price and going to be clicked on much more than Edwards, so he’s a nice pivot.
Patrick Mahomes won’t be in my captain pool on Sunday night and I think it’s a sneaky way to get unique. Mahomes just hasn’t had it over the last few weeks and he’s still the most expensive player. The Chiefs’ offense is so concentrated on Hill and Kelce it’s often hard for Mahomes to hit the optimal captain anyway. It’s possible he can spread the ball around to four or five players or run one in, but I think he’ll be over-rostered relative to his chances of hitting as the optimal captain. Similarly, Derek Carr is a statue quarterback with somewhat of a concentrated target share, so he’s best used as a flex not a captain.
Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson are often the key to showdown slates. There honestly isn’t a rhyme or reason outside of salary as to who will be the best value in terms of point per dollar. I will say to make sure you correlate them correctly. Pringle often gets on the field as Hill’s replacement so they eat into each others’ fantasy point total. Robinson needs touchdowns, so he often eats into Kelce and the running backs value who also depend on touchdowns.
Jerick McKinnon is a dart throw as he gets in on some passing downs and can rack up receptions and a luckbox touchdown near the goal line. I would slot McKinnon in when I don’t have Williams in my lineup and I’m projecting a shootout or Raiders victory. He could be a solid pairing with a Raiders captain, specifically Josh Jacobs. That would surely be a unique build.
DeSean Jackson, Zay Jones, and Foster Moreau are similar to the Hardman, Pringle, Robinson conundrum. It’s difficult to predict what ancillary pieces will get there on a showdown slate, so it’s important to correlate them well. I’m assuming DeSean Jackson will be active and they may try to get him the ball in his first game with the Raiders on a designed play or two. He is the direct Ruggs replacement and is most likely negatively correlated with Edwards. Obviously, if Foster Moreau lands in the optimal he has something like 3-20-1 stat line. He eats directly into Darren Waller’s workload.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Tyreek Hill
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Hunter Renfrow, Kenyan Drake
Captain/MVP: Travis Kelce
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Darren Waller, Byron Pringle
Captain/MVP: Darrell Williams
Flex: Derek Carr, Darren Waller, Mecole Hardman
Captain/MVP: Darren Waller
Flex: Derek Carr, Tyreek Hill, Harrison Butker
Captain/MVP: Hunter Renfrow
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Kenyan Drake
Captain/MVP: Josh Jacobs
Flex: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jerick McKinnon
