Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
TB @ Det
The reason we start our studs (unless there’s an injury/snap count issue) is Devin White in Week 15. He posted 10 solos, 2 assists, 3 sacks, 4 TFL, 3 QB hits, and 2 PD. He’ll come up short sometimes, but he’s the equivalent of a WR1. Lavonte David usually produces slightly less than White, and both are good for some big plays. I like Antoine Winfield, Jr. as well this week. It’s a great matchup for DBs and a good matchup for LBs. Detroit has a top-10 stat crew in awarding solos. I also expect both LBs and Winfield to get pass rush opps. I know Shaq Barrett and JPP came up short last week, but they played almost every snap and have a much better matchup this week.
I hope you don’t need any Lions this week. Tampa Bay is a bad matchup for Romeo Okwara (though he had a brutal matchup last week and came through with a sack and a safety) and Everson Griffen. Plus, with all the rotating going on elsewhere, it’s not the week to get burned by weird snap counts. Jamie Collins (neck) is Questionable, and he’s the only reliable one.
SF @ Ari
Arik Armstead showed off his 1st round pedigree in Week 15: 8 tackles and 2 sacks on 87%. Arizona gives up 9 solos and 1.5 sacks to DLs, so this is a good week for Kerry Hyder and Armstead. I love Fred Warner as a player, but he’s been more of a 5-8 tackle guy now. He Hasn’t hit double digits since Week 10. Use him as an LB2 at best, but he’s an elite talent with big-play upside, so don’t bench him for some mediocre LB. I’d start Dre Greenlaw as an LB2/LB3 as well. The Niners are really banged up in the secondary. Richard Sherman and Jimmie Ward are Out, and Emmanuel Mosely and Tarvarius Moore are Questionable. Javon Kinlaw is Questionable, too.
Zach Allen led the team with 11 tackles (6 solo). He had a sack against the 49ers back on opening day, so Allen is a sneaky start. Haason Reddick (shoulder) is Questionable, but if he goes, I’m starting him against a backup QB. Isaiah Simmons (78% - 5 tackles) and De'Vondre Campbell (42% - 3 tackles) are still splitting snaps, but Simmons is starting to get the better of the matchup. Jordan Hicks (100% - 6 tackles) is still playing every down but has lost production to the Simmons/Campbell combo. Budda Baker had a slow game last week, but he has the best matchup on paper this week. SF is already the #1 team for FPG to DBs, but with the team rolling out a 3rd-stringer at QB, Baker’s upside is sky-high.
Mia @ LV
No Shaq Lawson this week. He’s been ruled Out. The Raiders run a ton (46%) and produce tackles for DLs, so I like Christian Wilkins, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Raekwon Davis. You already know what I’m gonna say about these LBs, but I’ll take Kyle Van Noy as an LB4 with some big-play upside. Jerome Baker has been an almost every-snap player lately, but I’d love to have seen more than just a few weeks of that to trust him. The run-heavy Raiders are bad for DBs.
The Raiders DLs are banged up, as Clelin Ferrell (shoulder) is Out and Maurice Hurst (calf) is Questionable. Cory Littleton had 7 tackles on 98% while Nick Kwiatkoski had 10 tackles on 100%. Littleton played 50% the previous two weeks.
Car @ Was
Brian Burns recorded his second multiple sack outing in his past four games but did injure his knee and is Questionable. Shaq Thompson has had terrible matchups the past two weeks and hasn’t been useful, but this week he gets the most LB-friendly matchup of the week. Particularly if Alex Smith starts since he loves to throw short of the sticks. It’s been Jermaine Carter next to Thompson, who would also have a good matchup. Oh, and this is a great matchup for Jeremy Chinn.
Tough week for this fierce Washington D-line. The Panthers produce just 10 tackles (5 solos) and just 1 sack per game to DLs. I’m starting my studs here, but I’m not happy about it. Cole Holcomb is back, as he practiced in full and is off the injury report. He’s got a great matchup, as Carolina is LB-friendly. Kamren Curl led the team with 8 tackles (6 solo) and now has 20-3 with an INT (pick-six), 2 PD & a QB hits in his last 3 games.
Ind @ Pit
DeForest Buckner is the best DT not named Aaron Donald and has consistently outproduced AD. He had 3 sacks last week and has 24 QB hits on the season. Pittsburgh is a tough matchup, but I’m starting Buckner, who plays almost every snap. Darius Leonard led the team with 12 tackles and had a key FF at the end of the game to seal the victory. I like Khari Willis this week, who has a great matchup facing the pass-heavy Steelers. They produce over 30 tackles per game to DBs.
Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt have a tough matchup against this tough O-line. It might be all Avery Williamson, as even the backup LBs are Questionable. Hopefully, DB Marcus Allen (stinger) plays because he’s been their other ILB and has 6-8 tackles waiting for him (if not more). Terrell Edmunds has disappointed lately, while Mike Hilton has picked up his production again.
ATL @ KC
Grady Jarrett has a tough matchup, as do Deion Jones and Foyesade Oluokun. KC is stingy to DLs and LBs. All their production goes to the secondary, so I like A.J. Terrell and Keanu Neal.
This should be a good game for Daniel Sorensen and Tyrann Mathieu, as Atlanta is so pass-heavy and this should be a shootout. With no Damien Wilson (Out), we should Sorensen at LB more, while Ben Niemann could be another surprise producer next to Anthony Hitchens. Frank Clark (illness) is Questionable.
Chi @ Jax
Khalil Mack (Questionable) is battling a shoulder injury but has 2 sacks in his last 3 games (0.5 in 3 straight, 8 on the year). Jax continues to be a tougher matchup for DLs than it seems they would be, but I’m still starting Akiem Hicks (Questionable) if he plays. Roquan Smith and to a lesser extent Danny Trevathan have good matchups. The Jags produce over 21 tackles per game to LBs.
Both Joe Schobert and Myles Jack have been putting up strong production lately. Chicago had been a bad matchup for LBs, but David Montgomery’s resurgence has changed that. Now they’re a good matchup. I like Jack this week and Schobert as well. Josh Jones appears to be off the injury report, so roll with Jones if you got him.
Cin @ Hou
Sam Hubbard laid his first goose egg last week. Terrible Timing. So let’s look at this: He played 88% (his norm). He had 2 QB hits and a PD. No DL had more than 2 tackles. Pit barely ran the ball due to Cincy jumping out to an unexpected early lead. So I’m firing Hubbard back up and ignoring last week. You should, too. Houston runs enough to give these young LBs a chance if you need them. I’m definitely going with Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates. It’s an average matchup, but these two are playing well right now.
What a sweet matchup for J.J. Watt during Championship Week. Cincinnati gives up 2 sacks and 2.5 TFL to DLs per game. The Bengals have allowed the second-highest number of sacks (48) this year. Tyrell Adams is an LB1 and Zach Cunningham might be too. Cincinnati found success on the ground last week, so if they continue that, these LBs should soak up tackles.
NYG @ Bal
Leonard Williams and Co. have a good matchup against the run-heavy, sack-heavy, and turnover-heavy Ravens. Blake Martinez (Questionable - ankle) had a nice game (10 tackles) after his back injury two weeks ago. Tae Crowder has LB3 appeal here (6 tackles last week). Baltimore’s run game and TE-heavy passing attack produces the 7th-most FPG to LBs. Jabrill Peppers and Logan Ryan have a brutal matchup. The Ravens produce all of their action up front. Hence they are dead last in DB production. Luckily Peppers plays a ton in the box, so I’m OK with using both of these guys, but no one else.
Calais Campbell (Questionable) is still dealing with his calf injury. Yannick Ngakoue came through with 2 sacks. He’s been mounting QB pressures without getting home, so it was nice to see him come through. But he’s tough to trust this week. The Giants are not the pushover O-line they were earlier in the season. Patrick Queen is still a 60-80% player and remains an LB3 but with a little bit of big-play upside.
Cle @ NYJ
The Jets have strengthened their O-line and are now giving up fewer sacks. A healthier Myles Garrett couldn’t care less. He’s eaten up much better O-lines this season. So have Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi, and Olivier Vernon. This line gets tackles and sacks and the Jets give up both. They should get Mack Wilson back, but the only LB I’d consider is B.J. Goodson. The Jets are a bad matchup for LBs, though.
No Quinnen Williams. He’s Out. That’s going to create more tackles for Neville Hewitt and possibly Bryce Hager if they can shed the blocks that Williams would have soaked up. This could mean Marcus Maye may play more LB, which would be a nice boost.
Den @ LAC
I like Shelby Harris this week. The Chargers produce an insane amount of tackles to DLs. They also produce a ton to LBs. Talk about a turnaround: A.J. Johnson had the worst matchup last week (the Bills are dead last in FPG to LBs) - but he still managed 7 tackles. This week has the #1 matchup of the week. I’m expecting 10-13 tackles from AJ this week. Josey Jewell is also on the radar, as he’s not losing that many snaps to Will Parks.
Joey Bosa and Uchenna Nwosu are Out this week. Denver has allowed the most INTs (20) in the NFL this year, and they throw more than anyone in the league BY FAR. This should be a good week for Rayshawn Jenkins and these LAC DBs. Kyzir White was placed on IR, and Denzel Perryman is Questionable, so it’s all Kenneth Murray, Jr. and Nick Vigil.
Phi @ Dal
Dallas is the #1 option for opposing DLs. Philadelphia has one of the best D-lines in the game. Fire up Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett, and Brandon Graham if they play. Cox and Barnett are Questionable. Alex Singleton is a weekly starter. He has 11 tackles or more in every game but one and Dallas is top-10 for LB FPG.
It’s time for the Spiderman pointing meme. Dallas has a deep and talented D-line and faces a Philly O-line that has given up the most sacks by far in the league, and gave up 6 last week. Leighton Vander Esch (Questionable) played just 38% last week as he’s dealing with an ankle injury. No thank you. Donovan Wilson has played virtually every snap since returning from injury (he was rotating with Xavier Woods and Steven Parker). He’s a 7-9 tackle guy who gets a few pass rush opps each week.
LAR @ Sea
What do you do with Aaron Donald this week? Seattle WAS vulnerable to sacks but they’ve cleaned some of that. AD has been so boom/bust because teams sell out to stop him. But when he booms…he’ll win you your week. I can not sit the best player in the game when it matters most. Troy Reeder has been playing so well lately. Keep using him and John Johnson III in this average matchup.
I know Carlos Dunlap is dealing with a foot injury, but he’s been closing games for this defense. Since Week 8, he has 4.5 sacks in six games with the Seahawks. Use him in big play leagues only, due to his limited usage. D.J. Reed has moved back to fantasy relevance with injuries to Quinton Dunbar and Tre Flowers. Rams throw a ton and produce tons of FPG to DBs. Only the Colts produce more DB tackles.
Ten @ GB
Tennessee’s pass rush has been weak all season and now they face the stingiest team for DL production. Hence, it’s a bad week for Jeffery Simmons. David Long is turning heads. He led the team with 12 tackles (6 solo) and a PD and took 98% snaps (Rashaan Evans took 86%). The Packers light up secondaries, so give me all the Titans DBs.
The Titans are an average matchup for DLs, but they produce tackles, so I like Kenny Clark. Christian Kirksey is leaving the field, but he still played 71% and had 9 tackles. He’s an LB2/LB3 but he’s not useless. Krys Barnes took 45% and had 6 tackles, a TFL, and a FF. Kamal Martin played 32% and had 4 tackles.
Buf @ NE
Think about the Patriots offense. They’re mostly run-heavy. Cam Newton doesn’t throw much and they don’t have many receiving weapons. So it makes sense that NE is top-10 for DLs and LBs in FPG. I’ll take Jerry Hughes, Ed Oliver, and Tremaine Edmunds, thank you very much. I’ll also take Jordan Poyer of course, but he has a bad matchup.
Terez Hall led the team with 14 tackles (13 solo) but only had 2-3 and 2 PDs in his previous two games combined. Ja’Whaun Bentley did injure his arm and that led to Hall getting extra snaps. Buffalo is a bad matchup across the board (particularly LBs) so I’d avoid the Patriots IDPs if you can, except for Adrian Phillips in big play leagues. Stephon Gilmore (quadriceps) was sent to IR.
