IDP Defensive Flyover

Each defense has characteristics that are important to identify when evaluating our IDP assets. Similar to how an offense uses its tight ends — how many they typically deploy can impact how successful we think a certain tight end might be — the same can be said for DLs, LBs, and DBs.

A brief explanation of each column:

• Scheme Variation: How likely (or unlikely) a defense’s scheme will vary greatly throughout the season. High variation creates inconsistency with usage and ultimately production.

• DL Rotation: How often a defensive line will split snaps. High rotations create unpredictable production.

• 3-down LBs: The number of linebackers we expect to be on the field for over 80% of a team’s snaps.

• Man/Zone Heavy: All teams play a mix of coverages. Whether they are in the top-10 of teams that play Zone coverage or Man coverage can affect an IDP’s opportunity for tackles or coverage-related production (INTs, PD, etc).

• Safety Alignment: A team’s tendency to play one safety deep or two safeties deep can tell us a lot about whether a safety will get consistent tackle opportunities in the box or not.

Caveats:

• No team plays a certain coverage or alignment exclusively. A “Man-heavy” team still only plays Man coverage around 50% of the time. A “Single-high” safety alignment still may only happen 60-70% of the time.

• These are our best estimations of what a defense will do in 2021 based on DC tendencies, beat writer reports, player and coach interviews, and film study. They are always evolving (few defensive coordinators sit on their heels and fail to make adjustments, and the ones that do are likely soon couch-bound), so this is just a snapshot of a defense for the purposes of predicting IDP production. This can — and certainly will — change throughout the season.