Bear. Tite. Mint. Star.
No, these are not the names of a new K-Pop band. These are terms defensive coordinators are using more and more these days. They’re the signals of the modern NFL defense. With fewer and fewer defenses relying on a 4-3 or 3-4 alignment for more than 50% of their snaps (some as little as 10%), the days of the clearly-defined defense seem numbered. Thus, the roles of NFL defenders are becoming less static and predictable. Unlike K-Pop. OK, that was my last shot at my daughter’s favorite musical genre. But there’s really only so much of that a grown man can listen to in his car…
I wrote an article a few years back called, “Where Have You Gone, 3-Down IDP?” It chronicled the decline of the number of reliable IDPs available to be plugged into your lineups. As the numbers below will show, that trend isn’t showing any signs of reversing, which turns the lights down on the aging theory that you can wait until the end of your draft to scoop up any one of two dozen 3-down linebackers.
The other death knell those opening words ring out is the disappearance of linemen with steady roles. Just a few years ago, the following advice was damned-near gospel: Need tackles? Grad a DT. Want sacks? A 4-3 DE should do the trick. Ah, the good ol’ days.
Not to fear, though. All is not lost. In fact, for those ahead (or at least on top of) the curve this shift in defensive strategy presents a chance to be aggressive when just a few years ago that kind of aggression in drafts was considered amateurish. “Look at Bill, drafting an LB in the 5th round. Rookie mistake!”
The 2021 Rules of Engagement for IDP Drafts
Rule #1: Be Aggressive. B-E Aggressive.
As you’ll see below, there are only a handful of top-tier IDPs that are reliable enough to bet on. If you miss those, you can certainly make up for it by trolling the back end of the draft and the waiver wire. I started applying this strategy two years ago and it was a game-changer. Similar to poker, if everyone is aggressive, you should be conservative. But if everyone is conservative (the prevailing thinking in IDP circles these days), it’s time to be the aggressor.
Rule #2: Look for 2nd-Year Upside
Typically, rookies fare better in Year Two after they’ve had a full season under their belt. But last year’s anomaly (I think I just called a pandemic an anomaly, but whatevs) put so many rookies in near-impossible situations to succeed that they are going into this year with depressed values. After you’ve front-loaded your starters with studs, look for 2nd-year players with tons of upside to fill your bench.
Positional Breakdowns
As usual, I like to break down each general position to identify players in a set of unique tiers. If you’ve followed this article in the last few years, you’ll recognize these terms. You’ll also recognize that the lists are shorter than usual. That’s due to our aggression in drafts to take these players, even a round or two before they “should” go. Particularly with the depth at WR and QB on the offensive side of the ball.
DL/EDGE
The days of a DL lining up at the 3-technique for 80% of their snaps are virtually gone. And OLBs in 3-4 schemes (if we can even call it that anymore) are just as versatile. DLs at the collegiate level are being coached up to move inside and outside with each play. “Multiple” and “Versatile” are draft buzzwords that DCs crave hearing.
And here’s the trick: You’re either one of these highly-versatile on-ball defenders, or you’re a part-time player. DCs either draft/trade for these do-it-all players or they fashion one out of two or three players. That means sometimes three DLs/OLBs might operate as one full-time spot in a modern defense.
Check out how many DLs played at least 900 snaps over the last 9 seasons:
| Season | 2012: | 2013: | 2014: | 2015: | 2016: | 2017: | 2018: | 2019: | 2020: |
| # of DLs w/ at least 900 snaps | 14 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
This has led to the production being spread out more among the middle-of-the-pack DLs.
| Season | 2015: | 2016: | 2017: | 2018: | 2019: | 2020: |
| # of DLs w/ at least 130 FP | 20 | 17 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 11 |
In 2020, 11 DLs scored 130 or more fantasy points.
While snap counts don’t perfectly correlate with elite production (some DLs who play 70-80% are effective enough to make the top-10 in scoring), what is clear is the chances of being one of the handful of players posting outlier dominant production that we’ve seen from an Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt, Chandler Jones, or T.J. Watt comes from a combination of elite talent and 90%+ snaps.
Or put another way: if your DL isn’t playing 850+ snaps, their chances of being a top-5 DL are slim.
Usually, there’s a handful of DLs who have monster seasons and leave everyone in the dust. Those are your league winners and they play 900+ snaps. Last year was an outlier in that some of the most talented DLs (Danielle Hunter, Joey Bosa, and Nick Bosa) suffered injuries that kept them from nearing their regular snap counts.
Thus, I view the uber-talented AND virtually-every-snap DLs as “Elite DLs.” And either Uber-talented but 70-80% snap players or solidly-talented and 90%+ snap players as “Solid DLs.” And I want to come away with 1-2 of each from my drafts.
I’ll separate these elite players into DL and LB since most of you don’t have the EDGE designation yet.
Elite DLs
Danielle Hunter
Nick Bosa
Joey Bosa
Myles Garrett
Aaron Donald
Elite OLBs
TJ Watt
Chandler Jones
Shaquil Barrett
Outside of those top-tier options, I’m also happy leaving my drafts with a few of these Solid DLs, which likely means I’m going DL early.
Solid DLs
Cameron Jordan
DeForest Buckner
Cameron Heyward
Sam Hubbard
Chase Young
Demarcus Lawrence
Leonard Williams
Chris Jones
Grady Jarrett
When it comes to deeper leagues, I shift to taking shots on what I call “Upside DLs;” rebound players whose values are depressed.
Upside DLs
Jeffrey Simmons
Da’Ron Payne
Ed Oliver
Josh Allen
Christian Wilkins
Marcus Davenport
Derek Barnett
Jarran Reed
LB
OK, enough on-ball talk. Similar to DLs, the number of LBs playing at least 1,000 snaps declined steadily from the early 2010s until 2018. But the last two seasons have given us some hope that those numbers have leveled. We still have about half as many LBs playing every down that 8-10 years ago, but we’ve crept back up from the single digits.
| Season | 2012: | 2013: | 2014: | 2015: | 2016: | 2017: | 2018: | 2019: | 2020: |
| # of LBs w/ at least 1000 snaps | 28 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 14 |
But with 32 NFL teams, that leaves fewer than half the league able to send out the same LB all season. When adjusted for injury, it gives us about 1 LB per team that is reliable. A far cry from the 2-LB tandems that dominated the league in the early 2000s.
Part of this is due to the success of the defenses that rely heavily on 5, 6, and 7 DBs to combat the proliferation of RPOs in modern NFL offenses. And as the NFL is a copycat league (even going as far as copying successful college defenses), we’ve seen a rise in positionless defenders and a bottoming out of every-down LBs.
And every-down LBs have the best chance to post steady production, as well as soak up those big plays that can turn someone like Darius Leonard or Devin White into a league winner. And there aren’t as many Leonards and Whites as there were a few years ago.
So who are these every-down LBs who also have that high-end upside? I like to call them Anchor LBs. This year, they are:
Anchor LBs
Devin White
Darius Leonard
Blake Martinez
Zach Cunningham
Roquan Smith
Jaylon Smith
Bobby Wagner
Fred Warner
Now, there is a tier right below them who should play about 900-1,000 snaps and are high-end LB2s, or with a little luck could be LB1s. Those are what I call Solid LBs.
Solid LBs
Lavonte David
Deion Jones
Foyesade Oluokun
Tremaine Edmunds
Devin Bush
Demario Davis
Alexander Johnson
Jerome Baker
Myles Jack
After that, there are a number of LBs who have a number of question marks about their role. I want no part of those players…unless I can get certain ones on the cheap. In particular, all those 2020 rookie LBs who had slow starts due to no preseason and virtual-only training camp. Several have depressed value in drafts. I’m trying to load up on these for my LB3/LB4 slots. I want 2 locked-in studs and a few upside dart throws later in drafts. Here are my favorite targets for LBs who may slip to later rounds.
Upside LBs
Isaiah Simmons
Kenneth Murray
Matt Milano
Willie Gay, Jr.
Logan Wilson
Zack Baun
Nick Kwiatkoski
DB
As I’ve chronicled in recent years, the plethora of defensive backs on the field at once has created a logjam in the DB3/DB4 categories. DB1 is still rarified air, though. But once you get past the top 25, due to the number of nickel and dime packages run in today’s NFL, DBs are a “dime” a dozen.
Here’s a snapshot of how crowded the middle-of-the-pack DB field has gotten over the last 8 years.
| Season | 2012: | 2020: |
| # of DBs w/ at least 1100 snaps | 4 | 2 |
| # of DBs w/ at least 1000 snaps | 37 | 27 |
| # of DBs w/ at least 900 snaps | 55 | 68 |
| # of DBs w/ at least 800 snaps | 76 | 87 |
| # of DBs w/ at least 700 snaps | 88 | 111 |
We can see a dip in players hitting that 1,000 snap mark and almost 20 more DBs playing at least 60% of the time.
In addition to the extra players posting mediocre production, the long-standing volatility of the position makes it even more of a crapshoot than in 5-6 years ago. But there IS stability (err, relatively) near the top. So let’s stay up there and let the volatility fall to our draftmates.
OR
We can pick up a few DBs at the end of the draft and stream DBs as a punt while we pick up valuable offensive weapons loaded with upside. This is a solid backup option if those few DBs dry up quickly.
So who IS worth drafting as a reliable DB1? Well, it’s a short list. But if these guys fall to me, I’m taking them. These are some of the few reliable options.
Elite DBs
Jamal Adams
Budda Baker
Jessie Bates III
Justin Simmons
Derwin James
Jordan Poyer
John Johnson
Believe it or not, that’s the whole list. Let’s discuss one who made the list and a few who didn’t.
Jamal Adams is a unicorn. The dude had 9.5 sacks last season in 12 games and 6.5 sacks in 14 games the previous season. No other DB had more than 4.5 in a season in recent history. He also averages double-digit TFL and averages 100+ tackles per full season. And he’s just 25. He’s the one worth leapfrogging for.
Notice there’s no Jeremy Chinn, Landon Collins, Logan Ryan, or Vonn Bell? While I think these guys will have good seasons, they have a few issues that have been indicators of higher volatility. Age, position switching, and more DBs in the mix are strong cues that a DB might not repeat their previous production. The DB graveyard is full of veterans like Collins and Bell, who are top-5 one year and are ghosts the next. I’m perfectly happy drafting these guys as my DB2, but I don’t trust them with my primary DB slot.
Oh, and don’t draft a cornerback unless they’re required. That doesn’t mean you won’t get a cornerback. But the chances are actually higher that your productive CB is on the waiver wire than in anyone’s top-50 ranks. There’s less than a 20% chance that a cornerback who finished in the top 25 will finish there again next season.
Number of CBs who finished in the top-25 in both 2019 and 2020: 1 (Marlon Humphrey)
Number of CBs who finished in the top-25 in both 2018 and 2019: 0 (Nobody Noone, Jr.)
And the previous seasons are just as bleak.
Using the above tiers, let’s break down this strategy for each common league size.
IDP Roster: 1-3 Flex Positions
DL Strategy: Avoid drafting a DL
Myles Garrett was the top DL last season, posting 152 FP (using our default balanced scoring system). That’s in line with LB4/LB5s like Bobby Okereke and Germaine Pratt. Your top DLs can’t even crack the top 40 LBs in scoring in most leagues. If you’re big-play heavy then a top DL can crack the top 25. But it’s just not worth it unless they’re your 3rd IDP and it happens to be one of those elite DLs. But of course, those players won’t be there that late. In fact, we’re rooting for our leaguemates to take Joey Bosa so we can draft an upside RB or WR while we wait to take Lavonte David or Demario Davis four rounds later, who will almost assuredly outproduce Bosa.
LB Strategy: Grab an Anchor LB in the mid/late rounds, then fill out my roster with Solid LBs late in the draft.
If I only need one IDP, I’m grabbing one of those backend Anchor LBs later in the draft and sleeping like a baby. If I need two or three IDPs, then I’ll have one Anchor LB and two Solid LBs. And if I get to a decision between an Anchor LB like Fred Warner, or an upside RB like Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Michael Carter, I’m taking those upside RBs. I’m perfectly happy with having two Solid LBs and an Upside LB while collecting chips that could be major producers on offense.
DB Strategy: No thanks.
With so many flex options at LB and even DL, and DBs historically being so volatile from season to season, I’d rather pass on a DB for my flex. Are there any exceptions? Sure. If Jamal Adams is still there for my second or third spot (in a 3 IDP league), I’m taking Adams. Otherwise, nah. I’m good. Will a few DBs put up IDP2/3 value? Yes. But why take a risk on which few that will be when I can grab any Solid LB and focus on offensive players?
IDP Roster: DL/LB/DB (one each)
DL Strategy: Grab an Elite DL
Preferably after I have all or most of my offensive starters. I’m gonna keep an eye on those names above and when that list starts shrinking, I’ll grab one. Specifically, I will pull the trigger pretty soon after I have three RBs I’m happy with. RB depth is thin this year, so I’m going heavy on RB early. So each draft I’ll weigh those Elite DLs against the RBs and WRs, and unless the list is dwindling and/or my draft position puts me in a bad spot to catch the tail end of the DL run, I’ll err on the offensive side. But - and this is important - I’m not missing that Elite DL train. Even if it means going up and getting one before I usually need to. This year, that usually results in me landing guys like Cameron Heyward and Cameron Jordan, while players like Aaron Donald and Joey Bosa tend to go earlier than I’m willing to pay. This will likely be the first IDP I draft, as the drop-off to the second and third-tier DLs is more significant than the LBs.
LB Strategy: Look for a low-end Anchor LB, but be satisfied with a Solid LB
Similar to DLs, I’m not usually ready to pay the high price for a Roquan Smith when I can get Fred Warner several rounds later. I’m perfectly happy with the end of that Anchor LB list, or even some of the first names on my Solid LB list. I have a particular memory of almost drafting Alec Ogletree, but electing to take a young Patrick Mahomes as my upside backup QB instead, and “settling” for Lavonte David the next round. I won that league. I’ve done similar things in years past which resulted in drafting rookie and then-backup RB David Johnson, or James Conner the year Le'veon Bell decided to sit out the whole season. Those memories keep me in check when Devin White is sitting there as we get into the middle rounds where I should be looking for RB/WR depth.
DB Strategy: Take a DB in the last two or three rounds
There’s no need to try and grab Budda Baker early when 100-tackle stalwarts like Justin Simmons have been lasting into the 10-15 ADP range. If I’m in a 12 or even 16-team league and I only need one DB, this is my chance to wait and let one of these consistent producers fall to me at the tail end of the draft. Often, I will use my very last pick on a DB and I’ll still struggle to choose between several juicy options. DBs like Chuck Clark, Marcus Maye, and Malcolm Jenkins have been going undrafted in some shallow leagues this season, and all are good candidates to post similar production to the DB1s going several rounds earlier.
IDP Roster: 2 DL/3 LB/2 DB
DL Strategy: Elite DL early, then wait on a late Solid DL
Because I’ll need two DLs (likely three if I can afford the bench spot), this is a good year to grab a top-5 option in this type of league. They’re like RBs: I don’t want to miss out on those top few studs at this position. But after I have one of those DLs, the separation between DLs #9-20 isn’t significant, so I can afford to compensate for drafting a DL early by waiting a round or two later for my second DL while loading up on offense. Christian Wilkins and Jonathan Allen are guys I’m targeting for my #2 DL slot.
LB Strategy: One Anchor LB, one Solid LB, then wait on a high-upside LB3
Because I’ll be drafting an Elite DL with my first IDP pick, I’ll likely miss out on the top 5 LBs, and that’s ok. There are enough LBs I’m happy with (about 15 or so) that I can afford it. Guys like Demario Davis and Foyesade Oluokun have been coming off the board around the #25-32 LB range, which is great value for two players with locked-in roles and LB1 upside. For my LB3, as I mentioned before, I prefer high upside over safe floor, so I’ll go for Logan Wilson or Kenneth Murray, two players who should see their roles grow over the season.
DB Strategy: I’m still punting on DBs.
To me, this is the perfect league size to punt on DB. Needing two or three of them, players like Jamal Adams and Budda Baker tend to go way too early for me. This might be the best spot to take advantage of upside offensive picks. DB runs tend to occur here, and I like to zag when I see them because it allows me to use a few picks on high-upside players without sacrificing much on the back end. I’ll draft two players like Terrell Edmunds and Marcus Maye sometimes five or six rounds later. Give me two DB2/DB3s and two upside offensive weapons like Michael Carter or Kyle Pitts which I can usually snag while Adams, Baker, Landon Collins, and Derwin James are coming off the board.
IDP Roster: 4 DL/5 LB/3 DB
DL Strategy: One Elite DL, and Two Solid DLs
For a league this large, I have to be more aggressive, particularly in the DL category. I like coming out early for an Elite DL, then 2-3 rounds later grabbing a solid DL (#10-30 DLs), then a few rounds later, I'll grab a backend Solid DL, or possibly wait and grab a situational pass rusher for my DL3. If I'm loading up on tackle machines with my first two DLs, I can stand the swings of a situational pass rusher when he doughnuts, but more often than not even 1 sack or big play from my DL3 will be enough to carry his spot. More importantly, I put myself in a position to enjoy those weeks where he has multiple sacks and a fumble recovery because I have such a solid floor with my other two DLs.
LB Strategy: One Anchor LB, Two Solid LBs, and a pass rusher
After I have my Elite DL, I want my Anchor LB next. There are similarly few Anchor LBs just like Elite DLs, so I will be aggressive for each. And really, I can't afford to wait on my second and third LBs either. So I'm going to draft at least two LBs who are 3-down players with a clearly defined role. As long as I have at least two of those, I'll be comfortable mining the middle rounds for some high upside offensive talent. Then I'd go back and get one of two types of LBs for my last two LB slots: a second-year player who will likely grow into his role like Willie Gay, Jr. or Zack Baun, or I’ll go with a pass rusher for my last LB slot. Guys like Brian Burns, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Bud Dupree will have a handful of tackles each game, and will contribute a sack every few games. As the 4th LB, I’m cool with that. I have steady production everywhere else, so I’ll take a few fireworks games from my last LB.
DB Strategy: It’s time to draft DBs
A little volatility is fine, but I’m not willing to be juggling three or four question marks (production-wise) in a league like this. So I’ll try and grab two Solid DBs. These are players who have done it for a few years, whose DCs haven’t changed in the offseason, and whose secondary hasn’t changed much around him. That matters too. For instance, let’s say a SS has been playing in the box because his FS has been so good as the lone deep man. But then that FS is no longer there for 2021. The DC may change their coverage packages and that SS is no longer able to stay up. Hence why this is such a week-to-week proposition with DBs. Their coverages change often, dramatically changing most of their production. That Elite DB list is short for a reason. That second list of Reliable DBs will do me plenty. For my final DB spot, I’ll aim for a rookie CB. Similar to a pass-rushing LB4, I want potential blow-up games from my last DB spot. I’d rather some weekly swings than to stare at the same 4-5 tackles every week from a veteran. Those PD and INTs add up quickly with really good rookie CBs. And there are a good number of options for that this season.
Final Thought - the Self-Check
An evergreen in this article, my one last piece of advice: when you get to the point where you are considering grabbing an IDP, perform this annual IDP draft self-check:
Is your offensive roster mostly filled out and strong?
Are there several IDPs available at that position that make the list or the list just below them?
What offensive players are available and do any of them have a legitimate chance to break out this season?
Those few questions have helped me year-in, year-out as to when to pull the trigger on IDPs.
Now go get that IDP ‘ship!!
