Here’s my very quick look at the week. If you want more information and analysis, you can always read our Week 10 Game Hubs.
Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Players I like more than usual: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Matt Ryan, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts
Players I’m neutral on: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, Russell Gage
Players I like less than usual: Mike Davis
Longshot Plays: Tony Pollard
Notes: A nice and juicy expected total of 55 expected in this one, and I have confidence in Matt Ryan, who was great last week, against Dallas’ cover 1 heavy secondary. Like Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater excels against man coverage, and Teddy posted 21.9 FP last week in this matchup. Ryan won’t have to worry about their key pass rusher Randy Gregory, who is out. Kyle Pitts has been quiet, and he could see some of Trevon Diggs, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing, since Diggs has been giving up big plays. I like Pitts a little more than usual. I like Cordarrelle Patterson a little more than usual, as well. In games without Calvin Ridley, he’s now tallied 7/60, 5/37/1, and 6/126 through the air. I do not trust Russell Gage, since he should see a fair amount of Diggs, and surely don’t trust Olamide Zaccheaus or Tajae Sharpe just yet.
Dak Presscott was off last week and won’t have LT Tyron Smith, which is a concern. But this is a major bounce-back spot against a Falcons’ defense that does not have a pass rush and is giving up the fourth-most FPG (21.4) to QBs, and the fourth-most FPG to outside WRs. Dak will also get Michael Gallup back and Ezekiel Elliott is nursing a sore knee. I like Wes Huber’s point about Amari Cooper on top CB AJ Terrell, with the other outside corner, Fabian Moreau, being very beatable down the field, so I do like CeeDee Lamb’s chances of having a big game. Lamb said this week his ankle feels a lot better and that it bothered him last week. Dalton Schultz remains a viable TE1 after he hit 50+ receiving yards for the fourth time in five games last week. Ezekiel Elliott seems okay with his knee bruise, but I’ve lowered his projection a tad due to the issue.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Players I like more than usual: Carson Wentz, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold
Players I’m neutral on: Mo Alle-Cox, Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: Jamal Agnew
Notes: The Jags defense showed up last week, but they’re very beatable on the back end and Carson Wentz has accounted for multiple TD passes in six straight games with 20+ FP in four of his last five. The Jags are tough to run on, but they did give up a high number of RB carries, and Jonathan Taylor averaged 7.1 YPC in this matchup last year with 171 yards a game and 26.6 FPG, which is absurd. Michael Pittman has scored in three straight games and in four of his last five, and D.K. Metcalf posted 6/43/2 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago. They do spread the ball around, which is a concern, but Pittman has 21 targets in just their last two and they are giving up over 15 WR receptions per game the last four weeks. The Jaguars haven’t allowed a touchdown to a TE in each of their last three games, and it’s maddening how they underutilized Mo Alle-Cox. It’s like they like to show off how fancy they are so they have to get three TEs, multiple RBs, and like five WRs involved every week.
Jag QB Trevor Lawrence has been dealing with an ankle injury, so his rushing upside may continue to be limited. On the plus side, the Colts allowed Jets’ backup QB Mike White and Josh Johnson to combine for 412/4 passing last week. Dan Arnold has led the Jaguars in receiving yards in each of the last two weeks and he’s seen 5+ targets in each of his first four games with the Jags. The Colts have given up touchdowns to the likes of Geoff Swaim and Ryan Griffin in each of the last two games. Marvin Jones is tough to trust, but I could see him making a big play against this shabby secondary and the Colts are giving up the fifth-most FPG (41.4), the most receiving TDs per game (1.7) to WRs this season, and the most FPG to outside WRs. They give up the 11th-most FPG to slot receivers, and Jamal Agnew has double-digit FP in three of his last four. James Robinson is expected back but the Colts are stingy vs. RBs and he had only 10 FP in one game against them last year on 17 touches.
Cleveland Browns (5-4) at New England Patriots (5-4)
Players I like more than usual: D’Ernest Johnson, Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson (if active), Brandon Bolden (only if Stevenson is NOT active)
Players I’m neutral on: Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry
Players I like less than usual: Jakobi Meyers
Longshot Plays: Donovan Peoples-Jones
Notes: A massive role is forthcoming for D’Ernest Johnson, who stepped into a bell-cow role and produced 22/146/1 rushing and 2/22 receiving on three targets in a Week 7 victory over the Broncos. He’s back in that role this week and the Patriots are giving up the 11th-most rushing yards per game (94.7) and 4.3 YPC to RBs this season. Baker Mayfield tends to play well against Cover 1 teams, which the Pats usually are, but he’s still hard to trust. Jarvis Landry was lame last week but he’s at least seen 24% of the targets or better the last two and Keenan Allen posted 6/77/1 receiving on 11 targets in this matchup two weeks ago. Donovan Peoples-Jones will challenge the Patriots vertically, and could easily produce a big play again with Baker against man. But it’s otherwise a so-so matchup by the numbers.
We know Damien Harris is already out and rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to be active, and if so, I’d use him with some confidence after he turned in season-bests in touches (12) and scrimmage yards (106) on a 27% snap share last week before leaving early. If he’s out, then I’d look at Brandon Bolden as a good flex with a 10-point floor and a 20-point ceiling. The Browns are a very tough matchup in the passing game right now, and Mac Jones doesn’t have much on the outside. I don’t like any of the matchups for their WRs, Jakobi Meyers included, but I do like Hunter Henry. He has a TD in five of his last six and I think he will be needed in this one. The Browns have been solid against TEs, but I like Henry.
Buffalo Bills (5-3) at New York Jets (2-6)
Players I like more than usual: Josh Allen, Dawson Knox, Zach Moss/Devin Singletary, Cole Beasley
Players I’m neutral on: Michael Carter, Elijah Moore, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders
Players I like less than usual: Corey Davis, Mike White, Jamison Crowder
Longshot Plays:
Notes: Josh Allen averaged 71% completion rate and 309 yards passing in this matchup last year, and the Jets have given up 21+ FP in four straight, including 272/3 against the Colts. They also lost S Marcus Maye, one of their best players, for the year. The Jets have been very good against outside WRs this year, seventh-best, but they are slipping, and I would not be afraid to fire up Stefon Diggs, and Emmanuel Sanders if I needed him. The best WR matchup is in the slot for Cole Beasley, but that’s only average. I’m legit wondering if part of Allen’s struggles can be tied to the loss of TE Dawson Knox, who has basically been Allen’s checkdown guy. New York’s defense got ravaged for 45 points and 532 yards last week, and they have given up four TDs to TEs in their last four games. It's an absolutely amazing spot for Bills RBs, which will include Zack Moss, and the Bills’ OL is healthier this week compared to last. In the last four weeks, the Jets have given up 23/129/2.3 per game to RBs on the ground AND also 8/82.5 in the passing game, good for 45.3 FPG, which is insane. Moss and Devin Singletary may produce in this one.
QB Mike White is back in business for the Jets this week, but it’s a nasty matchup as the Bills are giving up a stingy 12.6 FPG to QB. The mere presence of Tre'Davious White scares me with Elijah Moore and Corey Davis. Moore’s been at 10+ FPG in his last three, and he could see a little less of White, at least. Even though Moore’s snaps are still light playing mainly on the outside, Davis would be tougher to trust for me. The Bills not only have two good outside CBs, they have a good slot guy, as Jamal Agnew put up just 3/27 receiving last week, not good news for Jamison Crowder. White starting may be good news for RB Michael Carter, at least. Carter has been the intended receiver on 26% of White’s 88 passes, a very high total. We do have Tevin Coleman back in the mix, though, and the Bills have allowed just two individual RBs (Antonio Gibson, Derrick Henry) to reach double-digit FP this season.
Detroit Lions (0-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Players I like more than usual: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Pat Friermuth
Players I’m neutral on: T.J. Hockenson, D’Andre Swift
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Mason Rudolph
Notes: Jared Goff has been about as sad as we all expected, maybe even sadder, and he’s been under 20+ FP in six straight. The matchup isn’t scary, at least, and the Steelers helped a struggling Justin Fields put up 291/1 passing last week, and LT Taylor Decker expected back to protect Goff’s blindside. That’s good news for T.J. Hockenson, who is the only Lions receiver we can trust, and he’s had 9+ targets, and 6+ catches in three straight. He should be healthier coming out of the bye, as well. Cole Kmet actually produced in this matchup last week with 6/87. They may try WR Amon-Ra St. Brown outside more this week, but I’m not saying anything positive about him or Kalif Raymond. RB Jamaal Williams is out, so look out for rookie Jermar Jefferson, who has looked good. I’d want him as a Swift handcuff, if possible. Swift flopped with the backfield to himself last time out, and it’s a tough matchup overall, but most can’t and shouldn’t bench him.
Rookie Najee Harris is coming off a bad game for him, but he still hit 16 FP and he has 25+ touches in four straight and a TD in five straight. The Lions are giving up the second-most FPG (30.1) to RBs, and Jordan Howard and Boston Scott combined for 117/4 rushing in Detroit’s last game, so with Harris off the injury report and Ben Roethlisberger and Chase Claypool out, he’s looking good. Diontae Johnson is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season with just 5/56 receiving on six targets, but he should be the top passing target with 10+ looks with Claypool out and the Lions are giving up 2.07 FP per target and a league-high 15.0 aDot to outside WRs and their secondary has been vulnerable to big plays all year. I did take a little production away with Big Ben out. Pat Freiermuth is the man, and he may play a ton still with Eric Ebron out, due to no Claypool. He has 12+ FP and 6+ targets in each of his last three and the Lions have given up 9.6+ FP to individual TEs in three straight games. Even Mason Rudolph has a chance to do something of note with 15+ FP. The Lions are giving up by far the most yards per attempt at 8.8, and they’re allowing the fifth-most passing TDs per game (1.9) to QBs.
New Orleans Saints (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-2)
Players I like more than usual: AJ Brown
Players I’m neutral on: Ryan Tannehill
Players I like less than usual: Marquez Callawy
Longshot Plays: Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, Deonte Harris
Notes: It’s a low expected total of 43, which is lame, and with Alvin Kamara out, the Saints look like a fantasy wasteland against one of the best defensive fronts in this league right now, one that crushed the Rams last week. I am not assuming Mark Ingram will come through in this nasty matchup, but no doubt we’re looking at 20+ touches. I’m really not into getting behind Trevor Siemian against this nasty front, and the Titans have four INTs and have crushed Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes the last two weeks. If digging deep, Deonte Harris has been flirting with my fantasy interest all year and he has now seen 7+ targets in consecutive games with Siemian. Marquez Callawy has 3+ catches in four straight, as well, so he’s not hopeless. Even TE Adam Trautman is showing signs of life with 13 targets since Siemian stepped into the lineup.
It’s an RBBC for the Titans, and Jeremy McNichols led the backfield with a 45% snap share last week. But the Titans are 3-point home favorites against Trevor Siemian, so we could be looking at 15+ carries for Adrian Peterson, who played a promising 33% of the snaps last week. D’Onta Foreman did also look good on his 5/29 rushing and 21% share. It’s actually a bad matchup, anyway, but if Peterson can score again, he should be helpful. Julio Jones has been a lost cause and is now on IR, and I’m not worried about Marshawn Lattimore locking AJ Brown up if they decide to do that, since Brown is much more physical. Brown was rocking a 42% share last week and has 9+ targets in four straight games with a league-best 37% target share in that span. He’s like Derrick Henry now, only in the passing game. Given the thinned receiving corps and tougher matchup, I’m not loving Ryan Tannehill, but he’s usually best against man-to-man, which the Saints run at the third-highest rate in the league. I’m expecting some Tannehill-Brown fireworks, for sure.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) at Washington Football Team (2-6)
Players I like more than usual: Mike Evans, JD McKissic
Players I’m neutral on: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, Taylor Heinicke
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Ricky Seals-Jones, Tyler Johnson
Notes: Tom Brady’s not going to have Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin is hurting (foot), but he does have Mike Evans, who has scored four TDs in his last two games and six TDs in his last four. Washington is giving up the second-most touchdowns per game (1.4) to WRs. TFT has surrendered 24+ FP in 6-of-8 games and Brady put up 381/2 passing against them in the playoffs last year. I’m lowering expectations a tad, though. Godwin is hard to sit, by the way. Washington is giving up the third-most catches per game (15.1) to WRs, and the most FPG out of the slot. That could help push Tyler Johnson to sleeper status, and he’s a viable longshot. Johnson ran 26 routes in their last game, third most on the team and Scotty Miller (toe, IR) will not return. Leonard Fournette got stymied in their last game against the Saints, and this is another tough matchup against a defense giving up just 3.5 YPC to RBs. He did get 19/93/1 rushing and 4/39 rushing against Washington in the Wild Card Round last season, and he should get volume with the Bucs 10-point road favorites. Also, DE Montez Sweat out helps the run and the pass games for the Bucs.
Taylor Heinicke has really fallen off, and the Bucs defense has been quite stingy lately, giving up the sixth-fewest YPA (6.4). The Bucs are facing the third-most pass attempts per game (40.2), however, and Heinicke did get 306/1 passing and 46/1 rushing in this matchup in the Wild Card Round last season. As 10-point home dogs, we should see a lot of passing, especially since it’s a tough spot for Antonio Gibson, who hasn’t played more than 42% of the snaps in his last three games. Gibson may be better coming out of the bye, but Tampa’s is giving up the second-fewest rushing yards (55.9). They give up third-most receptions per game (7.3) to RBs this season, so it clearly looks like a J.D. McKissic game. Terry McLaurin should be busy, and he has a nice 29% target share with Heinicke. TE Logan Thomas is not going to play this week, but the Bucs are giving up the second-most catches per game (6.6) to TEs and 6.3 their last four games. I’d be willing to roll with Ricky Seals-Jones if I needed a TE this week.
Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
Players I like more than usual: Justin Herbert, Austin Eckler, Mike Williams, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Conklin
Players I’m neutral on: Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, Kirk Cousins
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays:
Notes: With an expected total of 53, this is a great spot for Justin Herbert. The Vikings have lost their top pass rusher in Danielle Hunter, they won’t have LB Anthony Barr, and they are also down top run-stuffer in DT Michael Pierce. They are also down their top DBs with Harrison Smith (COVID) and Patrick Peterson (hamstring, IR) out. Herbert should destroy their weak corners in whatever way they allow him to destroy them. He can get big chunk plays, or he can nickel and dime them to death, Either way, production is coming. Mike Williams has finished with exactly five targets and two catches in three straight games, which has prompted people to wonder if his knee is a problem. But he practiced fully all last week and he’s not even on the injury report this week, plus our Greg Cosell thought he looked fine on tape last week. The Vikings have given up massive performances to perimeter WRs Marquise Brown (9/116 receiving), CeeDee Lamb (6/112), and Amari Cooper (8/122/1) with Patrick Peterson out of the lineup the last two weeks, and I love Williams to blow up and burn CB Breshad Breeland this week. Keenan Allen’s matchup is certainly beatable, as well. Allen was added to the injury report with one this week, but it doesn’t appear much to worry about. I would not want to invest in a Charger TE with three guys doing something of note. That’s not ideal. Austin Eckler came up small for the second time in his last three games last week, but he did see 20+ touches for just the second time this season, and scrubs Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell combined for 24/127 rushing in this matchup last week. The Vikes are giving up 4.6 YPC to RBs this season and won’t have key defenders like S Smith, LB Barr, and top run-stuffer at DT in Pierce, so Eckler’s looking good.
I worry about Kirk Cousins in a matchup against a zone-heavy team like the Chargers, but it does help that CBs Ryan Smith and Michael Davis aren’t going to play. Since the Chargers are a zone-based team, it’s a Justin Jefferson game over an Adam Thielen game. Therein could always score, but this simple formula has worked dating back to last year. TE Tyler Conkin has seven targets and five catches in each of his last two games, and the Chargers have been quite bad against TEs, giving up the second-highest FP/T in the league to TEs, and the highest EPA per attempt on the season. Over the last four weeks, they have given up 77 yards a game with a 16.2 YPA. The Vikings should eventually be forced to the air in this one, but not if Dalvin Cook has anything to say about it. Cook ran for 100+ yards for the third time in six games last week, and the Chargers are allowing the most rushing yards per game (130.0) and a generous 4.9 YPC to RBs this season. The only chance the Vikings have in this game is to feed Cook 25+ touches, and that’s what they will try to do. 100+ yards and a TD would not be a surprise at all, as RBs are seeing 30+ carries against the Chargers the last four weeks.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Denver Broncos (5-4)
Players I like more than usual: Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant
Players I’m neutral on: Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith
Players I like less than usual: Dallas Goedert
Longshot Plays: Teddy Bridgewater, Tim Patrick
Notes: There’s downside behind a depleted OL and the Eagle DL is capable of dominating, the Broncos might not have play caller Pat Shurmur (COVID) this week, but Teddy Bridgewater is a savvy pro who can get rid of the ball quickly and nickel and dime them to death. Slot CB Avonte Maddox has been solid, but he does have a knee issue, and Jerry Jeudy looked incredible last week. Jeudy’s role last week and he ran a route on 78% of Teddy B’s dropbacks and he was back to leading the Broncos in target share (33%). The Eagles’ defense concedes short targets, as we saw last week with Keenan Allen (12/104 out of the slot last week). Jeudy is a lot more explosive than Allen, and he should be active with Darius Slay a good bet to shut Courtland Sutton down on the outside, which could always mean another Tim Patrick score/play, of course. Albert Okwuegbunam (knee) is no lock to play, and if he’s out, that’s huge for Noah Fant. Chargers TEs combined for 11/126/2 receiving against the Eagles last week and they currently give up a whopping 9/87/1 per game to TEs the last four weeks. The middle of the field is typically wide open. The Broncos held the ball for 41 minutes against the Cowboys, and they will look to do the same with their ground game, and the Eagles have been run on this year. The Bronco OL is banged up, though, and Philly has limited Austin Ekeler and D’Andre Swift lately, so I’m not expecting a huge game. Javonte Williams or Melvin Gordon, but both are obviously viable if you need them with a speck of upside in a low-scoring run-heavy game.
Jalen Hurts has been handing the ball off way too much lately, as he’s attempted just 31 passes their last two games. But it’s working, and he’s playing better, but it does hurt his upside. The Broncos are down slot ace Bryce Callahan, but it looks like Pat Surtain will play. The Broncos limited Dak Prescott to season-lows in completion percentage (48.7%) and YPA (5.8), so I’m worried about DeVonta Smith against a Bronco secondary that hasn't allowed an individual WR to top 51 receiving yards in the last three weeks. You can’t even consider any other Eagles receiver other than Dallas Goedert, who is being hurt by Hurts’ lack of attempts and his poor ball location, as he was overthrown for a potential 45-yard score last week. He’s in the mix to make plays, but the Broncos have yet to give up 12+ FP and a TD to a tight end this season. The Broncos are middle of the pack against the run, giving 4.2 YPC and 84.4 rushing yards per game, but the game should be close, at least. That’s better news for Jordan Howard and Boston Scott, but who knows?
Carolina Panthers (4-5) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)
Players I like more than usual: James Conner
Players I’m neutral on: Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, AJ Green, Christian Kirk
Players I like less than usual: DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler Murray
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: The Panthers are pretty easy to deal with right now, unfortunately. You start Christian McCaffrey, who is off the injury report and was productive last week with just a 49% snap share. Aaron Jones posted 15/59/1 rushing and 7/51 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago. P.J. Walker is a poor man’s Tyrod Taylor, but I feel a tiny bit better about DJ Moore with Sam Darnold gone. Of course, the OL is a mess with C Matt Paradis tearing his ACL and LT Cam Erving landing on the IR, plus the Cardinals are giving up the fifth-fewest FPG (16.2) to QBs. Not good. But again, Moore was able to post 7/127 receiving on 11 targets against the lowly Lions in Walker’s lone start last season, so he’s not hopeless. Our guy Wes Huber does think Robby Anderson has more big play potential in this matchup, if you’re very desperate for upside.
Kyler Murray’s status is very sketchy as of Sunday morning, and DeAndre Hopkins is not expected to play. Regardless of what happens with Murray, James Conner’s getting 20+ touches with Chase Edmunds out. His OL is a little beat up, but Patriots RBs combined for 33/146/1 rushing and 5/74 receiving against the Panthers last week. Eno Benjamin will also factor into this backfield, but he’ll probably max out at 30% of the snaps/touches. Murray has a much better chance of being active this week, but as of Saturday night he was still a GTD, and it’s a late game. Keep in mind he has only 38 yards rushing and 0 TDs his last four games. The Panthers have only allowed 3-of-9 passers to reach 200+ passing yards, so it’s hard to like anyone here. If Hopkins is out, AJ Green and Christian Kirk are decent WR3, but keep in mind the Panthers are giving up the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game (131.8) and just 11.8 YPR to WRs. Rondale Moore played a season-high 81% of the snaps last week with both Hopkins and Green out, and he got only 5/25 receiving, so he can’t be used. Zach Ertz posted his best snap share (80%) last week but he’s a shaky reach given the QB situation and the Panthers have kept Hunter Henry (2/19/1 receiving) and Kyle Pitts (2/13) in check the last two weeks.
Seattle Seahawks (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-2)
Players I like more than usual: DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones
Players I’m neutral on: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Aaron Rodgers, AJ Dillon
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: Russell Wilson is back and right back as a QB1, albeit a lower-end one. The Packers have limited both Kyler Murray (274/0 passing) and Patrick Mahomes (166/1) to a combined 21.5 FP over the last two weeks, but DK Metcalf could give this secondary problems, especially CB Kevin King. DK has averaged 9.3 targets per game in his last three full contests with Wilson. Tyler Lockett did explode with Geno Smith in their last game, and he’s had a 25% target share in Wilson’s four full games this season. The Packers did contain Tyreek Hill to 4/37 receiving on 11 targets last week, though. Seattle won’t have Chris Carson, so it’s a backfield to avoid. Alex Collins averaged 16.3 touches without Carson in the lineup, but now Rashaad Penny is also back in the mix, so it could be an ugly RBBC.
The Packers will get Aaron Rodgers back, and Rodgers has thrown for multiple TDs in seven straight games. The Seahawks have limited five straight QBs to fewer than 18 FP with just one passing TD, but they don’t have a corner to hang with Davante Adams, who has had some big games in this matchup in recent history. You can’t truly consider one of the other Packers WRs unless you’re talking bottom of the barrel deep leagues. Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling essentially cancel each other out. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon might be busy in this one against the improved Seahawk pass defense. Seattle has been hit for 176.4 scrimmage yards per game by RBs this season, including Alvin Kamara’s performance in Week 8 with 179/1 scrimmage.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)
Players I like more than usual: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, David Carr, Hunter Renfrow
Players I’m neutral on: Tyreek Hill, Bryan Edwards, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Darrel Williams
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: Not much else to say about Patrick Mahomes, who continues to struggle. I (and we) have been on this since Week 1, and it’s not getting better, and the Raiders are giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (220.8) to QBs. Mahomes at least averaged 344/2 in this matchup last year. Tyreek Hill is averaging 12.5 targets per game over his last six, but he turned 11 looks last week into only 4/37 receiving, and he will see a lot of top corner Casey Hayward. That makes Travis Kelce a better bet to bounce back. Kelce bounced back last week, in fact, and he destroyed the Raiders for 16/235/2 receiving in two games last season. For good measure, note the Raiders are giving up the third-most FPG (17.1) to the position this season. I’m not even considering any of the Chiefs secondary targets, since there are 3-4 of them and none of them do crap. Obviously, Darrel Williams’ fantasy value hangs in the balance depending on Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s status. Williams has 3+ catches in five straight and would be a solid RB2 again if CEH is out, which is more likely than not. The Raiders are giving up 4.6 YPC to RBs, and Giants’ backup RB Devontae Booker managed 21/99 rushing and 3/23 receiving in this matchup last week.
Derek Carr is never easy to predict, and the Chiefs defense has tightened up a bit in recent weeks, holding three of the last four QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 18 FP. Carr threw for a combined 622 yards on just 62 attempts (10.0 YPA) for six TDs and two INTs in two games in this matchup last season, however, so I’m fairly optimistic. Darren Waller is coming off his best game in the season opener, and it should have been a huge performance, but Carr missed him on two end-zone targets. The Chiefs have given up five TDs to TEs since Week 5 and Waller posted a combined 12/136/2 receiving on 14 targets in two games in this matchup last season. Hunter Renfrow has 5+ catches in 7-of-8 games, and he has 8+ targets in 6-of-8, so keep using him because, lord knows, Bryan Edwards apparently can’t do anything. He could emerge any given week, and I do like his chances this week, but he’s a desperation play only. The Raiders signed DeSean Jackson, keep in mind. Josh Jacobs has been good lately, and Kansas City is giving up 4.4 YPC to RBs this season, so he’s a solid RB2. Kenyan Drake has seen his snaps grow in three straight games (21%<39%<45%) and the Chiefs have given up production to A.J. Dillon (4/44 receiving) and Devontae Booker (5/65) through the air in the last two weeks.
Los Angeles Rams (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-5)
Players I like more than usual: Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Cooper Kupp, Van Jeffferson, Matthew Stafford
Players I’m neutral on: Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Darrell Henderson, Elijah Mitchell, Tyler Higbee
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: None of note.
Notes: With Robert Woods out of the mix, it looks like a huge Cooper Kupp game forthcoming against a 49ers defense that, per Greg Cosell, was pretty damn brutal last week. Career backup Colt McCoy averaged 9.6 YPA in a 14-point victory over the 49ers last week, so Matthew Stafford should be in good shape and unless Odell Beckham can figure out the playbook in a few days, Van Jefferson should be a good play. He saw a season-high 96% of the snaps last week with 6+ targets in three straight games. No Woods certainly helps Tyler Higbee, who saw a season-high 10 targets last week. The 49ers are giving up the third-fewest yards per game (34.0) to TEs, though, so he’s only looking slightly better with the Woods news. Darrell Henderson has been a relative non-factor in the passing attack with just six receiving yards in the last two games, but the 49ers’ run defense has been trending in the wrong direction since their Week 6 bye, and they just got shredded by James Conner for 21/96/2 rushing and 5/77/1 receiving, so Henderson is still a solid play, especially with Woods out.
I think we’re looking at Jalen Ramsey spending more time on Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk is just about all the way back with his two highest snap shares (88%, 93%) in their last two games. The Rams are facing the eighth-most targets per game (21.3) at WR, so Aiyuk is looking good. Jimmy Garoppolo is feeling the heat from rookie Trey Lance, or else he should be. He completed 23/33 passes for 268 yards (8.1 YPA) and three TDs in his lone matchup against the Rams last season, so he’s probably looking a little better than usual, as he should have to throw a lot. George Kittle played a healthy 73% of the snaps last week, and the Rams have allowed four different TEs to reach double-digit FP over the last three weeks. Elijah Mitchell continues to run well and even had 5/43 receiving last week, which was huge. It’s not a great matchup on the ground, but you have to use Mitchell if you need him.
