The goal here is to give you everything of note I have for a given week - in a 5-minute read. If I feel strongly about something good or bad, I’ll address it in the notes section.
New York Jets (1-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Players I like more than usual: Jamison Crowder, Corey Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts
Players I’m neutral on: Mike Davis, Michael Carter, Matt Ryan
Players I like less than usual: None of note.
Longshot Plays: Elijah Moore, Zach Wilson, Hayden Hurst.
Notes: Slot corner Isaiah Oliver is out, which is big for Jamison Crowder, who stepped into a significant role last week with a 26% target share and 7/61/1. I think he has an excellent chance to come through with 5+ catches and 12+ FP. Corey Davis is also looking better than usual with a good matchup. The Falcons allow a league-high 66.6% of WR fantasy points against outside WRs. I wouldn't be surprised if Elijah Moore did something, but he can’t be trusted. But Zach Wilson should have another positive day, at least in terms of fantasy production.
You have to use Cord Patterson, of course, especially with Ridley out. That’s also true for Kyle Pitts, who is 5th at TE in route share (81%), 5th in expected FP per game (13.0), 6th in targets per game (7.0), and 6th in air yards per game (54.0). He’s also extremely due for a TD and Matt Ryan usually excels against the types of coverage the Jets run. Mike Davis isn’t hopeless in this one with the Jets giving up 5 rushing TDs to RBs so far, but Wayne Gallman is now lurking. I’m not using the scrub Falcons WRs.
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-1)
Players I like more than usual: DJ Moore, Sam Darnold, Chubba Hubbard
Players I’m neutral on: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
Players I like less than usual: Robby Anderson
Longshot Plays:
Notes: You have to feel good about the Panthers offense in this one, since the Eagles defense is really bad right now. Players don’t yet know the scheme well, and they are extremely vulnerable in terms of soft spots in their zone, which KC and Tyreek Hill took advantage of. DJ Moore should eat yet again, and Philly’s coverage scheme could prevent a big play to Robby Anderson, who is tough to trust right now. The big issue with Chubba Hubbard is pass protection, which is why Rodney Smith is in the mix. Smith topped Hubbard in routes (20 to 10), targets (5 to 2), catches (5 to 2), and yards (48 to 14), and then was sent back to the practice squad. But then elevated to the active roster this weekend with Christian McCaffrey doubtful. The good news is the Panthers are home favorites, so he may get 15+ carries against an Eagles defense that is giving up the second-most rushing yards per game (127.3) to RBs.
I don’t love the matchup for the Eagles, but Jalen Hurts is a top-10 fantasy QB on a bad day right now. I don’t love DeVonta Smith’s matchup against the speedy Donte Jackson, who limited CeeDee Lamb to a 2/13/0 line last week, but Smith, as predicted, is a high-volume guy and easily lead them with a 23% target share, plus his aDOT sitting at 15.8 yards, so he’s a big play waiting to happen. It’s otherwise an ugly receiver committee with Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Quez Watkins, Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz all in the mix. Ertz had more of everything than Goedert last week in terms of routes, targets, catches, and yards. Not great, but at least for the TEs, the Cowboys guys got them for 7/76/2 receiving.
Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Players I like more than usual: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Davante Adams
Players I’m neutral on: Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers
Players I like less than usual: AJ Dillon, Robert Tonyan
Longshot Plays: Randall Cobb
Notes: Absolutely love this game for fantasy, especially the Bengals passing game with top corner Jaire Alexander out for GB. That’s huge for Joe Burrow, who looks fantastic on tape the last two weeks. He should throw it 35+ times with Joe Mixon very iffy, and Green Bay has given up the fourth-most TD passes per game (2.5) to QBs, and that’s with their star CB Alexander playing. The biggest winner from Alexander being out may be Tyler Boyd, who should see Chandon Sullivan, who is 37th out of 41 qualified slot CBs in yards per coverage snap. Samaje Perine is off the grid if Joe Mixon is active, but worth a shot if 10 points will appease you. He has underrated receiving skills and rookie Chris Evans, while in the mix, can’t be considered a threat just yet.
The Bengals have been playing well on defense, but I just can’t lose any sleep over Davante Adams up against Trae Waynes, Chidobe Awuzie, and Mike Hilton with Aaron Rodgers throwing it to Adams. Robert Tonyan has fewer than 10 receiving yards and fewer than 3.0 FP three times already, and the Bengals have given up only 1 TD to a TE so far this season. I actually like Randall Cobb, who was off the radar just one week ago, but very much on it now, after a huge Week 4. No one else is stepping up in the passing game so far, so it’s probably Cobb time for Rodgers, and I expect a shootout, so Rodgers may have to throw it 40+ times, and the Bengals give up the 11th-most FPG to slot receivers. The Bengals have been tough on the run, bad news for AJ Dillon, but they give up the second-most catches per game (8.0) to RBs, which is good for Aaron Jones.
New England Patriots (1-3) at Houston Texans (1-3)
Players I like more than usual: Damien Harris,
Players I’m neutral on: Brandin Cooks, Jakobi Meyers, Mac Jones
Players I like less than usual: Nelson Agholor
Longshot Plays: David Johnson, Patriots TEs
Notes: Given how pathetic the Texans are, it’s hard for me to back Mac Jones and the Patriots passing game. Jakobi Meyers has been great, but the last two weeks he’s getting volume, and he may not get that in this one, plus the Texans have given up the ninth-fewest PPG in the slot. Meyers was outside a lot last week, but it’s still a low-volume game for him, most likely. It is a good matchup for the TEs, but Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith both scored last week and are more reach plays than solid ones with Henry the better choice given his edge in routes, targets, and production. Clearly, this one should be all about Damien Harris. Harris ran a backfield-high 17 routes with 2/30 receiving, both career-bests, and he had the second-highest snap share of his career (61%) in his first game without James White. The Texans are giving up the sixth-most rushing yards per game (114.0) to RBs so far.
Brandin Cooks had 54% of Houston’s passing yards last week and 33% of their targets, so he should be in decent shape as a WR3, but it’s still a tougher matchup against a deep secondary. David Johnson led the Texans’ backfield in snap share (57%), touches (8), and scrimmage yards (48) last week, and now looks like the only Texan player other than Cooks who can be considered. Danny Amendola may do something in a revenge game, but he’s impossible to trust.
Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Players I like more than usual: Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault
Players I’m neutral on: James Robinson, AJ Brown
Players I like less than usual: Dan Arnold
Longshot Plays: Chester Rodgers
Notes: AJ Brown looks set to return to the lineup, which is great news but a little surprising, which does concern me a tad. But we can only assume he’s in solid shape if he’s active, and the Jaguars give up the third-most receiving yards per game (223.0) to WRs and they’re averaging 14.4 YPR. You can’t trust any other Titans receiver, as Nick Westbrook-Ikhine truthers learned last week. Derrick Henry ran for 300 yards against the Jaguars last year. That’s good, right? Ryan Tannehill isn’t very exciting, but he did complete 77% of his passes in this matchup last year with 6 TD passes. That’s also good, right? Chester Rodgers is a deep sleeper because the Jags defense allows the seventh-most FPG out of the slot.
It’s not an amazing matchup by the numbers, but the game should be close, and James Robinson looks great the last 2-3 weeks. He also averaged a solid 16.6 FPG in this matchup last year with 6.0 YPC on the ground (14/84.5) and he caught 7 balls. I like Marvin Jones against a Titans secondary and pass defense that is brutal right now and gives up 51 FPG to WRs, and no more DJ Chark means he’ll see targets galore. The Titans are especially bad covering the slot, giving up the most PPG to inside receivers, per SIS. Laviska Shenault’s role is expanding with Chark out, so he looks good heading into this one. You could do worse at QB this week than Trevor Lawrence, who might be starting to add to his game with his legs.
Detroit Lions (0-4) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
Players I like more than usual: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson
Players I’m neutral on: Adam Thielen, TJ Hockenson (knee)
Players I like less than usual: Dalvin Cook (ankle), Jared Goff
Longshot Plays: Alexander Mattison, Tyler Conklin
Notes: Detroit is giving up a league-high in YPA (10.7) and the second-most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.668) and teams are crushing them in the passing game, particularly down the field. Kirk Cousins should crush it. Adam Thielen may score 2-3 TDs, but this is a smash spot for Justin Jefferson, since he’s better than Thielen against zone and Detroit plays a lot of zone. I thought Dalvin Cook looked okay last week, but he’s clearly limited and playing through pain, so he’s a tough one. The Lions give up 4.7 YPC to RBs and were just ripped by David Montgomery (23/106/2 rushing) and Damien Williams (10/70/1 scrimmage) last week, so the matchup is great. Alexander Mattison looks like he’ll be worth starting if you need him. TE Tyler Conklin has more big-play potential this week, but he’s a shaky play in general.
If the Lions do not have OT Penei Sewell today, they will be without their three best lineman, which hurts Jamaal Williams more than D’Andre Swift. Williams saw season-highs in carries (14) and rushing yards (66) last week, but season-lows in snap share (30%) and targets (0). The Vikings are giving up a healthy 155.3 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, but they should have a lead, which should help Swift, who saw a season-high 73% snap share last week with 4/33 receiving on six targets. The Vikes are adding 8 PPG to RB totals in the passing game. We really like the matchup for TJ Hockenson, but their OL issues are a concern, and they elevated a TE off the practice squad Sunday, which could be a bad sign for the banged up TJH (knee), but he’s expected to go. If he goes, the Vikings are giving up the eighth-most receiving yards per game (63.3) to the position. I can’t back Jared Goff this week, given all their OL issues, but he could certainly get some garbage time production in this one.
Denver Broncos (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)
Players I like more than usual: Diontae Johnson
Players I’m neutral on: Noah Fant
Players I like less than usual: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ben Roethlisberger, Courtland Sutton, Teddy Bridgewater, Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon
Longshot Plays: Tim Patrick
Notes: This one could be all Diontae Johnson in the passing game, since JuJu Smith-Schuster has a tough matchup in the slot against Bryce Callahan, and since Chase Claypool is still banged up with his hamstring and he is hamstrung by Ben Roethlisberger, added a hip injury to his list of issues this week and who is throwing the ball in an average of 2.33 seconds this year, lowest in the league. That’s not great for Claypool, but James Washington is at least out. Johnson leads all receivers in targets per game (11.7) and Denver got hit by Sterling Shepard (24.3 FP), Marvin Jones (17.5) and Marquise Brown (19.1) recently. It’s a really tough matchup for Najee Harris, as Denver gives up just 3.3 YPC and only 2.5 RB receptions per game, so use him and hope for the best.
It’s good that Teddy Bridgewater is in line to start, but I do not like the matchup for him at all, as our Wes Huber pointed out, he struggles against the coverages Pittsburgh runs. Courtland Sutton has gone under 10 FP in three of four games this season, and his one good game was against the lowly Jags. He was also added to the injury report on Friday with an ankle problem, but this could help the steady Tim Patrick. It’s not a great matchup for Noah Fant, but he’s reached 12+ FP three times in four games, and Albert Okwuegbunam out should mean 1-2 more targets for Fant. It’s a bad matchup to split production evenly between two RBs, so if you have Javonte Williams, you’re rooting for an injury setback for Melvin Gordon (lower leg). The Steelers have yet to allow an individual RB to reach 12+ FP in a game this season, and they’re giving up the fifth-fewest FPG (16.1) to RBs this season.
Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
Players I like more than usual: Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, Mike Gesicki
Players I’m neutral on: Mike Evans, DaVante Parker
Players I like less than usual: Ron Jones, Myles Gaskin
Longshot Plays: Jacoby Brissett, Jaylen Waddle, Malcolm Brown
Notes: The Dolphins play more man coverage than only one other team in the NFL, so Tom Brady will know what to expect and will simply have to use his progression-reading skills to isolate the open man, which will likely be Antonio Brown for big plays. We should see top corner Xavien Howard on Mike Evans, so AB could make 1-2 big plays on a guy like Byron Jones, who has not been good. AB will look to atone for dropping a longer TD pass last week. I do like Leonard Fournette again this week, and he’s a good bet to get some volume with them being home favorites.
The Dolphins are in bad shape right now, but I can’t help but think Jacoby Brissett could do something of note this week. They are 7.5 point home dogs, and the Bucs are getting absolutely slayed by opposing passing games, plus their top-2 corners are out. DaVante Parker has a hammy issue, but he’s a good bet to produce if healthy. The Bucs are allowing the second-most FPG to slot receivers, so I like Jaylen Waddle to produce. Mike Gesicki has 16+ FP in Brissett’s first two starts, and the Bucs are giving up the third-most FPG (17.5) to TEs this season, so I do like Gesicki’s chances. You can’t use Myles Gaskin unless you’re desperate, and Malcolm Brown is viable if you’re very desperate.
New Orleans Saints (2-2) at Washington Football Team (2-2)
Players I like more than usual: None of note
Players I’m neutral on: Terry McLaurin, Alvin Kamara, Marquez Calloway
Players I like less than usual: Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic, Taylor Heinicke
Longshot Plays: Curtis Samuel
Notes: Not great for the FT with Antonio Gibson dealing with a shin issue that could be serious, plus a shoulder injury. At least the game should be close in DC with the lame Saints offense in town, which makes JD McKissic look weak on paper in this one. Terry McLaurin may see a lot of Marshon Lattimore, and he will be a marked man. TFT has a lot of injuries at WR and Logan Thomas is out, so it’s not looking good for Taylor Heinicke this week. Curtis Samuel is hardly a brilliant play, but if he goes and you need him, they should certainly need him, so he has a chance.
At least the FT’s offense will be undermanned and likely contained, so Alvin Kamara should be afforded plenty of touches and carries in a tougher matchup. I don’t trust a single Saint receiver and I certainly don’t trust Jameis Winston with Taysom Hill lurking. We need to see more from Deonte Harris before we can trust him, and the same is true for Marquez Calloway.
Cleveland Browns (3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)
Players I like more than usual: Keenan Allen
Players I’m neutral on: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Mike
Players I like less than usual: Justin Herbert, Austin Eckler, Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham
Longshot Plays:
Notes: This one looks like a tough one for fantasy, and for the Browns, you’re surely not using Baker Mayfield with any confidence at this point. Odell Beckham should have done well last week, but Baker missed him for a sure TD, among other misses. The Chargers are giving up the second-fewest FPG (26.3) to WRs this season, including just 5/56 receiving to Tyreek Hill in Week 3. The Chargers are giving up 5.0 YPC and the fifth-most rushing yards per game (114.3) to RBs, so it’s all Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
It’s a tough matchup on the ground for Austin Eckler, and the Browns have given up just one touchdown in four weeks, and they’re allowing just 3/26 receiving per game to RBs. The Browns shut down the Vikings last week, and they pressured him on week-high 53.7% of his dropbacks. Rookie LT Rashawn Slater up against DE Myles Garrett, and Justin Herbert is happy to have him in this tough matchup. I’d lower expectations for Herbert and his receivers. Justin Jefferson posted 6/84/1 receiving in this matchup last week, which could be good news for Mike Williams. The Browns have been fairly stingy covering the slot, so it’s not a great spot for Keenan Allen on paper.
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)
Players I like more than usual: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Damien Williams, Hunter Renfrow
Players I’m neutral on: Josh Jacobs, Derek Carr,
Players I like less than usual:
Longshot Plays: Justin Fields
Notes: The Raiders are down two of their top three outside CBs, and they can be had for big plays, so I like Justin Fields to have a nice day. Damien Williams is looking at bellcow usage in the running and passing game and it’s a good matchup. Khalil Herbert is intriguing as hell, and he will be a factor, but we’re not yet worrying about his presence. I like Allen Robinson’s chances with two of the Raiders’ top-3 CBs out this week. He’s in the slot about 40% of the time to avoid Casey Hayward, so a blowup game could be forthcoming. Darnell Mooney should see a fair amount of Hayward, but Mooney is also in the slot a fair amount, and he’s already shown off his great chemistry with Fields, so he’s still looking good going into this one.
The Bears haven’t allowed an opposing QB to get to 19+ FP since the season opener, but it’s a solid matchup for Derek Carr if you need him. Hunter Renfrow will see a favorable matchup against CB Duke Shelley, and they give up the eight-most FPG to slot WRs. Carr should be in solid shape, so Henry Ruggs has a chance. You can’t use Bryan Edwards with any confidence right now. The Bears limited T.J. Hockenson to 4/42 receiving on eight targets last week, but you’re using Darren Waller, obviously.
San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-0)
Players I like more than usual: Deebo Samuel, Trey Lance, Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins
Players I’m neutral on: Ross Dwelley, Trey Sermon, Elijah Mitchell, Christian Kirk
Players I like less than usual: Brandon Aiyuk
Longshot Plays: AJ Green
Notes: The Cardinals are down their top corner in Byron Murphy, and I’m not sold on their defense being as good as it’s shown thus far, so I have confidence in Trey Lance, who will definitely run a ton and make 1-2 big plays to offset his inevitable growing pains. The Cards play man coverage more than two-thirds of the league, which leaves them open to giving up rushing production. Deebo Samuel should eat again, but you can’t trust any other 49er receiver, including Bradon Aiyuk at this point. The Cardinals have given up 85+ rushing yards to individual backs the last three weeks and they’re allowing 5.2 YPC to RBs, but Elijah Mitchell is off the injury report, so it’s him and Trey Sermon splitting the duties, making both more desperation plays.
The matchup is solid for Kyler Murray, as the 49ers are still depleted at CB, and mobile QB Russell Wilson (4/26/1 rushing) and Jalen Hurts (10/82/1) have given the 49ers issues this season. I like DeAndre Hopkins to bounce back with a solid matchup. Hopkins posted a healthy 22/199 receiving on 28 targets in two games in this matchup last season and D.K. Metcalf posted 4/65/1 receiving against the 49ers last week. I don’t know how you trust Christian Kirk, but it’s a good matchup, and he posted 7/76 receiving in Week 16 against the 49ers last season. But AJ Green looks like a safer play right now. Green has scored 13+ FP in three straight games and he has exactly six targets in every game. The 49ers have given up three rushing TDs and 6.5/50.0 receiving per game to RBs to open the season, so it’s not a terrible spot for James Conner and Chase Edmunds. Edmunds, though, is banged up heading into this one and may technically be a GTD
New York Giants (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
Players I like more than usual: Daniel Jones, CeeDee Lamb
Players I’m neutral on: Saquon Barkley, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper,
Players I like less than usual: Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram
Longshot Plays: Kadarius Toney, Dalton Schultz
Notes: The Cowboys play man coverage at the eight-highest percentage in this league, and I always like Daniel Jones ’ ability to produce on the ground vs. man. To that point, they are giving up over 5 FPG to QBs in terms of rushing. Trevon Diggs is great, but he can only cover one man (Kenny Golladay) and Kadarious Toney looked awesome last week, as did John Ross. I love Toney’s chances this week with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton out again. Saquon Barkley looked great last week, so his prospects look strong.
The Giants have been suspect on defense this year, especially in the passing game, so Dak Prescott is looking fine heading into this one. The Giants have given up 20+ FP to quarterbacks in three of their first four games and James Bradberry and the secondary have given up big plays this year, so I’m expecting multiple deep shots to CeeDee Lamb this week. Dalton Schultz has produced 6+ targets and 10+ FP in three straight games, and the Giants have given up a league-high four TDs to the position so far. The Giants are giving up a generous 158.8 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, and Zeke Elliott totaled 166/3 scrimmage against the Giants last season, so he’s also looking fine.
Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
Players I like more than usual: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce
Players I’m neutral on: Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Emmanuel Sanders
Players I like less than usual: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Longshot Plays: Devin Singletart, Zack Moss, Dawson Knox
Notes: The Chiefs defense hasn’t been very good, and while Josh Allen has been a little up-and-down, I think he’ll be up for this big game. Stefon Diggs posted 10/123/1 receiving on 19 targets in two games against the Chiefs last season, and he could crush it. The Chiefs have been good covering the slot, but Cole Beasley is always in the mix. However, Dawson Knox may be a thing. He’s clearly earned Allen’s trust, and Knox ran a route on 82% of Buffalo’s dropbacks last week. He has now scored in eight of his last 13 games with nine TDs total in that span. (postseason included), including 6/42/1 receiving against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. KC is giving up 6.8/87 per game to TEs so far, which is a lot. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-most FPG (29.7) to RBs this season, including 4.9 YPC to the position, so RBs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss certainly have a chance. Singletary is the back of choice if they are behind in the second half.
The Bills haven’t faced many good passing game, but they are still extremely stingy against the pass and are giving up league-lows in FPG (10.5) and passing yards per game (167.3), so it’s a tough matchup for Patrick Mahomes, who is matchup-proof. Terry McLaurin had only 4/62 in this matchup two weeks ago, but Tyreek Hill dropped 9/172 on the Bills in the AFC title game last season. Still, he’s looking worse than usual. I think you hit this Bills defense with the TE, even if LB Matt Milano goes, so I think it’s a Travis Kelce game all day long. The Bills are giving up the fourth fewest rushing yards per game (51.3) and just 3.3 YPC to RBs this season, so I’d lower expectations for Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Players I like more than usual: Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Nyheim Hines
Players I’m neutral on: Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, Zach Pascal, Latavius Murray
Players I like less than usual: Carson Wentz
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: I’m not feeling warm and fuzzy about Carson Wentz and the Colts offense, but Wentz is hanging in there, and he should have to throw it a lot as road underdogs. But the Ravens will blitz him, so he’s tough to trust. He’s feeding it to Michael Pittman, and Mo Allie-Cox had a season-high 69% snap share last week and a big game. The Ravens have given up the most FPG (20.7) to TEs this season, so MAC has a chance. Zach Pascal is always a threat to score and he almost did on a carry last week. The Colts enter this week as touchdown road underdogs, which could mean a bigger role for Nyheim Hines, so Jonathan Taylor may need a TD to come through.
The Colts have given up multiple TD passes in every game and 11 passing scores overall to quarterbacks and they are down edge rusher Kwity Paye and starting CB Rock Ya Sin, so Lamar Jackson should be fine here. The Colts are giving up a generous 15.0 YPR to WRs this season, and I like Marqise Brown in this one. Mike Gesicki went for 5/57/1 receiving in this matchup last week, which bodes well for Mark Andrews, who is due to score. You can only use Latavius Murray if desperate, since he’s guaranteed nothing each week.
