The goal here is to give you everything of note I have for a given week - in a 5-minute read. If I feel strongly about something good or bad, I’ll address it in the notes section.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
Players I like more than usual: Tee Higgins, Mark Andrews
Players I’m neutral on: Ja'Marr Chase, Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown
Players I like less than usual: Joe Mixon
Longshot Plays: Devonta Freeman, Rashod Bateman, Tyler Boyd
Notes: We have a lame total of 45 expected in this one, which is not good. We expect the Ravens to match all-world CB Marlon Humphrey on Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins does lead their WR trio in targets in the four games Higgins, Chase, and Tyler Boyd have played together, and he’s due. It’s a good matchup for Boyd in the slot, if desperate. Joe Mixon has just 121/386/1 (3.1 YPC) rushing career vs. Baltimore, so not loving him with Samaje Perine back in the mix. Can’t expect a big game from Joe Burrow, but he’s hardly hopeless. C.J. Uzomah has 3 TDs the last three weeks and the Ravens do five up the second-most FPG (18.7) to TEs, including 4/25/1 receiving to Jared Cook last week.
Latavius Murray is out this week and Devonta Freeman actually looked decent last week, so he’s worth a shot, since Le’Veon Bell looks toast. If Ty’Son Williams is active, that would add to Freeman’s downside, though, so Freeman is still a longshot only. Lamar Jackson is coming off a really bad game and Cincinnati is giving up the sixth-fewest FPG (16.4) to QBs this season, but they are certainly beatable. The TE matchup may be so-so by the numbers, but Mark Andrews is rolling with 5+ catches in five straight with 65+ receiving yards in four straight. T.J. Hockenson posted 8/74 receiving on 11 targets in this matchup last week. Hollywood Brown posted 11/118/3 receiving on 18 targets in two matchups against the Bengals last season, but he might need a single big play to produce, as the Bengals give up the 10th-fewest FPG to outside WRs. They do give up the fifth-most catches per game (15.2) to WRs, which bodes well for Rashod Bateman, who has a chance today with Sammy Watkins out.
Washington Football Team (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)
Players I like more than usual: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, JD McKissic, Ricky Seals-Jones
Players I’m neutral on: Terry McLaurin
Players I like less than usual: Antonio Gibson, Taylor Heinicke
Longshot Plays: AJ Dillon, Dyami Brown, Robert Tonyan
Notes: Aaron Rodgers should obliterate this horrible secondary, one that has allowed 24+ FP in five straight, including 397/2 passing to Patrick Mahomes last week. They are playing a lot of man coverage, Davante Adams and Rodgers can carve up. TFT actually gives up the most FPG to slot receivers, but Randall Cobb is tough to trust. I’d feel a lot better if Marquez Valdes-Scantling was out again. If MVS is in, then I’d consider him a viable longshot reach with this great matchup. If Robert Tonyan is ever going to do something, this is the week, since TFT is weak in the middle of the field and in the secondary and gives up 6/68 to TEs per game the last four weeks. TFT is tougher against the run, but Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are a good bet to total 2 TDs, and TFT has actually given up SIX receiving TDs to RBs the last four weeks. In the second half of games in which the Packers have a lead of two scores or more, Dillon has 18 opportunities (carries + targets) to 5 for Jones.
It’s not looking great for Antonio Gibson, since O-lineman Brandon Scherff and Sam Cosmi are out, and since he’s banged up still and TFT is a good bet to get smoked, making this a JD McKissic game. Looking at last year and last week, when JDM has had a banged up Gibson around, JD has 17.4 FPG with 15.8 touches/game. The Packers are allowing 12.0 pure receiving FPG to RBs (13th-most) this season. It’s still tough to trust Taylor Heinicke, though, since he’s at just 5.4 YPA with 1 TD and 3 INTs the last two weeks. The Packers are giving up the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (223.5) to QBs, but TFT should have to throw a lot, so hope for the best for Terry McLaurin and Ricky Seals-Jones. GB has given up 15+ FP to Darnell Mooney, Ja’Marr Chase, and Diontae Johnson in three straight games and while GB hasn't faced much of a chancellege at TE latey, but they did give up 17+ FP to to the TE in their first three games. Dyami Brown (6 targets last week) is interesting to me right now, and they do need him big time, I would not be shocked if he did something.
Atlanta Falcons (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-5)
Players I like more than usual: Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki
Players I’m neutral on: Kyle Pitts, Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin,
Players I like less than usual: Davante Parker
Longshot Plays: Russell Gage
Notes: We do have some rain in the forecast, so check that on Sunday, but this is a really good spot. Ryan’s topped 21+ FP in each of his last two games as they are going with more vertical routes, and he’s hit 2 TDs or more in four straight. The Dolphins are giving up the third-most passing yards per game (307.5) to QBs. They’re particularly bad out of the slot, and their outside CBs have been banged up and have struggled (CBs Byron Jones and Xavien Howard are still questionable). Russell Gage is back, as well. Miami plays man coverage at the fifth-highest rate, and Calvin Ridley’s aDOT jumped from 9.0 yards to 15.1 in his last game, so Ridley is likely licking his chops. The Dolphins have allowed three perimeter WRs (Marvin Jones, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown) to post 6+ catches, 100+ yards, and 1+ TDs in the last two weeks. And we’re still wondering if CBs Howard and Jones will go, but if Jones plays, he may lock up Kyle Pitts, keep in mind. So I think it’s a Ridley game. Every game is a Cordarrelle Patterson game and there’s nothing scary about the matchup.
I’d feel better about Tua Tagovailoa if Davante Parker can go, and you should check the weather 1-2 hours before kickoff (you can get an updated hourly forecast here). But Miami is all about the pass lately, averaging a whopping 42 passes per game over the last five weeks, due to their non-existent running game and underachieving defense. The Falcons are giving up the eighth-most FPG (22.5) to QBs this season, and it helps that edge rusher Dante Fowler is out for Atlanta. Tua’s a good bet to hit 18-20 FP and Jaylen Waddle is a good play despite the tougher matchup by the numbers in the slot. Mike Gesicki has hit 16+ FP in three of his last four and looked great last week with Tua, putting up 8/115 receiving on nine targets. If Parker is out, even better. I thought Myles Gaskin would be okay last week, but he was not. His snaps dropped to only 35%, but he did still have 6 targets, so he’s not hopeless.
New York Jets (1-4) at New England Patriots (2-4)
Players I like more than usual: Damien Harris
Players I’m neutral on: Michael Carter, Hunter Henry, Mac Jones
Players I like less than usual: Corey Davis, Zach Wilson
Longshot Plays: Rhamondre Stephenson
Notes: None of note
The Pats are 7-point home favorites, and it should be a lopsided win for them against the rookie QB Zach Wilson, who they crushed in Week 2 in NY/NJ. Damien Harris should do better than the 16/62/1 rushing he put up in that first meeting, as the Jets are giving up the most FPG (33.2) to RBs. Brandon Bolden is banged, so it’s looking good for Rhamondre Stevenson to get more work. The rookie played 33% of the snaps with a promising 3/39 receiving on three targets. It looks like a low-volume game for Mac Jones, who had just 186 yards against the Jets in Week 2 with 0 TDs. Jakobi Meyers had only 4/38 receiving on six targets in that game, not great. Hunter Henry may be lucky to get 5 targets, but he has scored in three straight, so he’s a TE1.
The best play for the Jets is probably RB Michael Carter, who has hit 10+ FP in three of his last four with career-highs in rushing yards (59) and receiving yards (29) against the Patriots in Week 2. Houston RBs combined for 111 scrimmage yards against the Patriots two weeks ago.The Pats won’t have CB Jonathan Jones, which helps, but Zach Wilson had 4 INTS and a 6.4 YPA average in this matchup a month ago. Corey Davis is viable, and the Pats are struggling against the pass, but he had just 2/8 with 5 targets in this matchup back in Week 2. He’s the only WR you can seriously consider, with Jamison Crowder (24 routes last game), Keelan Cole (18) and Elijah Moore (16) all on the field running routes and canceling each other out.
Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New York Giants (1-5)
Players I like more than usual: DJ Moore, Chubba Hubbard, Sam Darnold,
Players I’m neutral on: Sterling Shepard (injury-related)
Players I like less than usual: Daniel Jones
Longshot Plays: Robby Anderson, Devontae Booker
Notes: I don’t truly trust Sam Darnold, but I do trust the Giants defense stinks. They have given up multiple touchdowns to the position in every game, including 7 TD passes to Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford the last two weeks. The secondary has been brutal, giving up the second-most FPG to outside WRs and the most yards per game (108). CeeDee Lamb got 4/84/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and Cooper Kupp dropped 9/130/2 last week, so I like DJ Moore’s chances. Robby Anderson may score again and/or make a big play, and now Terrace Marshall may help him get more looks again. Chubba Hubbard’s been 65% of the snaps the last two weeks but that number could climb as they look to take the ball out of Darnold’s hands. The Giants got hit with 24/107/2 scrimmage by Darrell Hnderson last week and now give up the seventh-most FPG (27.8) to RBs, so he’s looking good.
The Panthers have allowed 23+ FP to QBs in three straight games (Cousins, Hurts, Dak), but Daniel Jones is working with a skeleton crew at receiver. I’d feel a lot better if Sterling Shepard is active today. I sure as heck don’t want to have to try out Darius Slayton, John Ross, or Dante Pettis. Or Evan Engram. Devontae Booker has a chance to help you, at least, thanks to 4/28 receiving on a 72% snap share last week. The Panthers are giving up a generous 4.6 YPC to RBs, as well.
Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-2)
Players I like more than usual: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill
Players I’m neutral on: Travis Kelce
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Mecole Hardman, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Notes: Tennessee’s pass rush has been strong lately, but if KC can protect, Patrick Mahomes should destroy their depleted secondary. They will be forced to play a lot of zone, so it should be a lot of easy pitch and catch to Tyreek Hill, similar to the Eagles game two weeks ago. KC last week devoted resources to help pass protect, and it worked. Demarcus Robinson emerged from the dead last week and he did run more routes (39 to 37) with more FP (13.6 to 9.8) than Hardman last week, but Hardman’s role and flow within the offense has improved lately, as Hardman has put up his two best receiving totals the last two weeks for a combined 13/138 receiving, and the matchup is fantastic against a depleted secondary. As we saw last week with Emmanuel Sanders (5/91 receiving) and Cole Beasley (7/88/1) in this matchup, there’s a ton of upside. Over the past two weeks (minus CEH), Darrel “One L” Williams has handled 26 of 30 carries and 9 of 13 targets out of the backfield with 15.6 carries, 5.5 targets and 19.2 fantasy points per four quarters (RB6). There’s nothing particularly scary about the matchup, as the Titans are giving up 4.9 YPC to RBs and 5/34 receiving the last four weeks. With an insanely high expected total of 57.5, he’s once again a good bet to score. Travis Kelce has been dealing with a neck injury and the Titans have been very good against TEs, so I’m lowering expectations for Kelce this week.
It’s actually looking okay for Julio Jones, which is huge. AJ Brown said he was good to go on Friday. Ryan Tannehill’s TD rate is just 3.0%, so he’s due for some regression and KC has given up 28+ FP in four straight games before Taylor Heinicke last week. With an insanely high expected total of 57.5, I’m expecting good things from Tannehill and at least Brown. I do think Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a viable reach play, if desperate. Last week he ran the most routes (17) after Brown, and OC Todd Downing was singing his praises this week. The Chiefs haven’t been run on much lately, but that’s about to change, and another 1-2 TDs and 100+ yards is also coming from Derrick Henry.
Detroit Lions (0-6) at Los Angeles Rams (5-1)
Players I like more than usual: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Darrell Handerson, D’Andre Swift
Players I’m neutral on: TJ Hockenson, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Players I like less than usual: Jamaal Williams
Longshot Plays: Desean Jackson, Sony Michel
Notes: The biggest concern is the 16-point spread, so Matthew Stafford may not have to throw it much, though it is a double revenge game for him and Jared Goff. The Lions secondary is brutal, giving up 263 passing yards a game on only 28 attempts (9.4 YPA), so Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee all have good matchups. Detroit hands out big plays in the passing game, with the highest aDot allowed to outside WRs, so this could easily be a spot for Desean Jackson to make a big play. The best matchup is for Darrell Henderson, who is coming off a season-best 23 touches with 82% of the snaps against the bad Giants last week. Joe Mixon crushed an even worse Lions D last week for 23/153/1 scrimmage last week, and Detroit has now allowed 22+ FP to RBs in three straight games (Mixon, Mattison, Montgomery). Given the likely gamescript, we could easily get some Sony Michel production off the bench.
The 16-point spread bodes extremely well for D’Andre Swift, who seems like a lock for 6+ catches, but 16-point road underdogs is a recipe for disaster for Jamaal Williams, who got pinched last week with just 4/11 rushing. He could catch some balls for sure, but the guy has only 3/6 receiving on four targets over the last three games. I’m concerned that TJ Hockenson will have to produce with Jalen Ramsey either lurking or right on him. TJH is in the slot about half the time, so I’d lower expectations. Jared Goff has been so bad and their receiving corps is so weak, that it’s hard to endorse anyone but Swift. But the attention TJH commands could help Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-2)
Players I like more than usual: Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, Darren Waller (if healthy)
Players I’m neutral on: Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Derek Carr
Players I like less than usual: Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow
Longshot Plays: Jalen Reagor/Quez Watkins
Notes: With Jalen Hurts, it usually comes down to the coverage he’s facing in terms of whether or not he’ll move the ball via the forward pass. Some weeks, he’s hopeless, and some weeks he’s good. Per our Wes Huber, Hurts is best against cover-3, which Greg Cosell cosigned this week. And that is what the Raiders run at the league’s highest rate. So I expect passing success, which bodes well for DeVonta Smith and I always expect rushing success. If Hurts stays consistent with his history against cover-3, then either Jalen Reagor or Quez Watkins will have chances. Courtland Sutton did go for 8/94/1 against LV last week, albeit mostly in garbage time. Dallas Goedert averages 4.2/53 on 6.6 targets per game without Zach Ertz, and I’d expect 4+ catches and 50+ yards here. Noah Fant got 9/97/1 receiving against the Raiders last week. At least Miles Sanders has seen 75% or more of the snaps the last two weeks, and more touches are likely coming. Four different RBs have run for 50+ yards against the Raiders in the last two weeks, and the Raiders are giving up 4.5 YPC and the ninth-most rushing yards per game (103.2) to RBs, so I like Sanders’ chances.
The Eagles do a good job of limiting big plays in the passing game, and they are stingy against outside and slot receivers, which is not good for Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow. Obviously, those guys won’t get shut out, but the Eagles can be had in the middle of the field, so I think it’s a Darren Waller game. He is questionable and ill, but if he goes and is okay, I see a big upside. The Eagles have given up multiple TD three of their last four games, but they’re giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (223.8) to QBs, so I don’t love Derek Carr. The matchup is good for the Raiders ground game, but one issue is the freakin’ Drake is back. HC Jon Gruden quickly soured on him (he was an idiot for signing him), but he’s back in business with Gruden being an idiot and all and gone because of that. Thankfully, Josh Jacobs’ snap share (64%) didn’t change much last week, so we can lock him in for at least a lot of carries. The Eagles have been lit up for 18+ FP and 110+ scrimmage yards by individual RBs in four straight games.
Houston Texans (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (6-0)
Players I like more than usual: James Conner
Players I’m neutral on: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmunds, Brandin Cooks
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: The Cardinals are kind of a nightmare now for fantasy. It’s extremely hard to predict which of their receivers will do well, and Kyler Murray isn’t running! Oh and James Conner is vulturing TDs! And now Zach Ertz is here! They are 17.5 home favorites, so Kyler won’t likely have to throw or run much, but Conner should get a very good chance to go off. It is a revenge game for DeAndre Hopkins, so he may get an extra look or two. Rondale Moore saw a season-high 56% of the snaps with Maxx Williams out last week, but now we have Ertz in the mix. Chase Edmunds was pulled off the injury report, which is good, and the matchup is nice, but he may not be needed to catch more than 2-3 balls.
The Cardinals have given up fewer than 16 FP to QBs in three of their last four games, which is not good for Houston. Brandin Cooks bounced back last week, as I expected, and he can at least get some garbage time production in this one. He’s seen 7+ targets and 5+ catches in 5-of-6 games, and Odell Beckham posted a solid 5/79 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week. Nico Collins would be the other WR to consider after he put up 4/44 receiving on six targets with the third-most routes on the team. The Cardinals are giving up the seventh-fewest FPG (19.6) to RBs this season, but David Johnson may get you 10 FP if desperate as the third-down back. They are giving up 6/41 receiving to RBs the last four weeks.
Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)
Players I like more than usual: Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson
Players I’m neutral on: Damien Williams, Mike Evans, OJ Howard
Players I like less than usual: Khalil Herbert
Longshot Plays: Justin Fields, Cole Kmet, Tyler Johnson
Notes: The Bucs do still have a ton of injuries, with LB Lavonte David and CB Richard Sherman out, and DE Jason Pierre-Paul likely out. Top CBs Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting are also still on IR. At the end of the day, to have any chance of winning, Justin Fields has to either throw it 35+ times or run it 10+ times, or both. They will not be able to run the ball with their RBs, so the game has to be in Fields’ hands. I wouldn’t actually watch the game because it could look ugly, but the man is coming out of this one with 16+ FP, which qualifies as a win. Damien Williams has been activated from the Covid list, so Khalil Herbert could get pinched. Williams may get you 5+ catches as they throw a lot. The depleted Bucs secondary has allowed the fifth-most FPG (41.4) to WRs this season, so Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson’s outlooks appear to be better than usual. Cole Kmet has shown signs of life lately and it’s a good matchup for him with Zach Ertz posting 4/29/1 against the Bucs last week (and it should have been more).
It’s a guess, but the Bears last week had top corner Jaylen Johnson travel with Davante Adams, and that worked, so they may do the same with Mike Evans. Even if they don’t, Godwin will likely see less of Johnson than Evans, and whenever he’s in the slot, Godwin has a good matchup, as the Bears have given up the 11th-most FPG to slot receivers. Tyler Johnson will get some of that, but Antonio Brown is out and Godwin is due. The Bucs should be in control in this one, so Leonard Fournette is looking good for volume carries in the game. The Bears are pretty darn good on defense, and Tom Brady won’t have his boys Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, so if Johnson can limit Evans, Brady could have a so-so game (for him). O.J. Howard shocked with 6/49/1 last week, but the Bears haven’t allowed a TE to reach double-digit FP since Tyler Higbee did it in Week 1.
Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
Players I like more than usual: Jonathan Taylor
Players I’m neutral on: Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Bradon Aiyuk, Elijah Mitchell, Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, Mo Alie-Cox
Players I like less than usual:
Longshot Plays: Ross Dwelley
Notes: There’s RAIN in the forecast for the whole game (and all of Sunday), so things are not looking good. The winds may not be that bad, at least, by kickoff. It’s a good matchup for Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, and Bradon Aiyuk (who had a good week of practice coming out of the bye), as the Colts had given up multiple TD passes in each of their first three games before running into Davis Mills last week, and they are giving up a league-high 1.7 receiving touchdowns per game to WRs. But the rain and wind means we have to lower expectations. The 49ers won’t also have LT Trent Williams, which stinks. Digging deep at TE,
Ross Dwelley played by far a season-high 91% snap share last week and he ran the third-most routes on the team (26). He’ll have a better chance to do something with Jimmy G this week, and the Colts have given up four TDs to TEs so far. Elijah Mitchell was back as the lead guy last week, but he can’t be used unless desperate, since he did little despite a healthy 68% snap share. JaMycal Hasty is now in the mix, as well, and FB Kyle Juszczyk has been used as the team’s passing back. The Colts have allowed just one rushing TD and 82.3 rushing yards per game to RBs so far this season.
All the same weather problems for the 49ers obviously also relate to the Colts. But Indy has a star RB in Jonathan Taylor, so perhaps dum-dum HC Frank Reich will actually commit to giving him carries in the first half. It’s not a good matchup, but I could see Taylor going off in the slop. TY Hilton won’t play, so Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, and Mo Alie-Cox are looking slightly better than usual. MAC definitely needs more targets and routes, though, as he’s been TD-or bust.
New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4)
Players I like more than usual: Alvin Kamara
Players I’m neutral on: Tyler Lockett
Players I like less than usual: DK Metcalf, Seahawk RBs
Longshot Plays: Jameis Winston
Notes: This game looks awful. The Seahawks are an absolute mess on defense and their offense won’t likely do much with injuries at RB and Geno Smith playing QB. Najee Harris finished with 24/81 rushing and 6/46/1 receiving against the Seahawks last week, so expect plenty of volume for Alvin Kamara, coming off the bye, against a defense giving up 27 RB carries a game the last four weeks. I do like Jameis Winston’s chances against a very beatable defense, but Seattle has changed some things up and have actually held opposing QBs to fewer than 18 FP with one TD pass in three straight games, so Jameis is only an okay reach. You gotta like Marquez Callaway’s chances, even if Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris are out there. Seattle is giving up the eighth-most FPG (40.7) to WRs this season.
Geno Smith seems to prefer throwing the ball to DK Metcalf, which is understandable, but DK will likely see a lot of Marshawn Lattimore, who helped hold DK to only two catches back in 2019 (he did get 67 yards). Kenny Golladay did post 6/116 receiving in this matchup in Week 4, but he’s the only WR to top 100+ yards against the Saints. Tyler Lockett is hard to trust right now, since he’s not clicking with Geno and has a bad three catches on 11 targets (27.2% catch rate) for 42 yards. I do think the Metcalf angle can help him, though. It looks like Alex Collins is fine to play, but he’s still banged up and they have a wide assortment of alternatives, like Rashad Penny, DeeJay Dallas, and Travis Homer available, so I’d use Collins in desperation only.
