My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
Example: My top-rated team, the Packers (7), would be 15.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Texans (-8.5). Using a typical three-point adjustment for home-field advantage, the Packers would be 18.5-point favorites over the Texans at home and 12.5-point favorites over the Texans on the road.
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl LVI Odds |
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 7 | 8-2 (9-1) | +.5 | +850 |
| 2. | Buffalo Bills | 6.5 | 6-3 (5-3-1) | +.5 | +600 |
| 3. | Dallas Cowboys | 6.5 | 7-2 (8-1) | +.5 | +800 |
| 4. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | 6-3 (3-6) | -.5 | +650 |
| 5. | Arizona Cardinals | 6 | 8-2 (7-3) | — | +1100 |
| 6. | Los Angeles Rams | 6 | 7-3 (4-6) | -1 | +800 |
| 7. | Baltimore Ravens | 4.5 | 6-3 (3-6) | -.5 | +1400 |
| 8. | Tennessee Titans | 4 | 8-2 (7-3) | — | +1200 |
| 9. | Kansas City Chiefs | 3.5 | 6-4 (3-7) | +1 | +1100 |
| 10. | New England Patriots | 3.5 | 6-4 (6-4) | +1 | +2500 |
| 11. | Los Angeles Chargers | 2.5 | 5-4 (5-4) | -.5 | +2500 |
| 12. | New Orleans Saints | 2 | 5-4 (4-5) | — | +6000 |
| 13. | Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 5-5 (6-4) | — | +6000 |
| 14. | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 4-5 (3-6) | +1 | +8000 |
| 15. | Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 3-6 (5-4) | -1 | +8000 |
| 16. | Cleveland Browns | 1.5 | 5-5 (5-5) | -.5 | +4000 |
| 17. | Minnesota Vikings | 1.5 | 4-5 (5-4) | +.5 | +8000 |
| 18. | Cincinnati Bengals | 1 | 5-4 (4-5) | — | +5000 |
| 19. | Philadelphia Eagles | .5 | 4-6 (5-5) | +1 | +10000 |
| 20. | Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 5-4 (4-5) | -1 | +6000 |
| 21. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 5-3-1 (3-6) | -1 | +8000 |
| 22. | Denver Broncos | -.5 | 5-5 (5-5) | — | +10000 |
| 23. | Carolina Panthers | -1 | 5-5 (5-5) | +1 | +15000 |
| 24. | New York Giants | -1.5 | 3-6 (5-4) | — | +50000 |
| 25. | Atlanta Falcons | -2 | 4-5 (4-5) | -1 | +50000 |
| 26. | Chicago Bears | -2 | 3-6 (4-5) | — | +50000 |
| 27. | Washington | -2.5 | 3-6 (3-7) | +.5 | +30000 |
| 28. | Miami Dolphins | -2.5 | 3-7 (4-5-1) | +.5 | +50000 |
| 29. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -4 | 2-7 (4-5) | +.5 | +50000 |
| 30. | Detroit Lions | -5 | 0-8-1 (5-4) | +.5 | +100000 |
| 31. | New York Jets | -5.5 | 2-7 (2-7) | — | +100000 |
| 32. | Houston Texans | -8.5 | 1-8 (3-6) | — | +100000 |
Week 11 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 10.
Green Bay Packers (6.5 to 7) — If you want an idea of how crazy this season has been, the Packers became the fifth different team to reach the top of the power ratings. The Packers extended their NFL-best ATS winning streak to nine straight covers, with their only failed cover coming against the Saints in their bizarre season-opening loss. Aaron Rodgers and the offense get all the publicity for the Packers, but their defense is coming off a shutout of the Seahawks after limiting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 13 points the week prior.
Buffalo Bills (6 to 6.5) — The Bills responded to their humiliating loss to the Jaguars with a thorough beatdown of the Jets on both sides of the ball. Five members of the Bills’ secondary recorded takeaways while Josh Allen averaged a whopping 13.1 YPA as the offense averaged 9.1 yards per play in the victory.
Dallas Cowboys (6 to 6.5) — The Cowboys had an impressive bounce-back victory with their third game with 40+ points this season after scoring 43 points against the Falcons. Dallas’ 33-point lead (36-3) after 30 minutes against Atlanta was the franchise’s biggest halftime lead in 50 years. Dallas has a three-game stretch in 12 days in Weeks 11-13 against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Saints in Weeks 11-13 that will decide if they’re legit contenders for homefield advantage in the NFC.
Kansas City Chiefs (2.5 to 3.5) — The Chiefs’ offense finally got going last week, notching 41 points against the Raiders after totaling 36 points in their three previous games against the Packers, Giants, and Titans. Patrick Mahomes carved up the Raiders for 406/5 passing while averaging 8.1 YPA, and Travis Kelce had a vintage performance with 8/119 receiving after falling below 70 receiving yards in five of his last six games.
New England Patriots (2.5 to 3.5) — The Patriots are one of the hottest teams in the NFL with outright wins and ATS covers in four straight contests. New England is covering in style too, with a pair of covers by 30+ points in that span and they own an average cover margin of 22.5 points in their four-game streak. Mac Jones led touchdown drives on five of his seven series against the Browns, and he led scoring drives on six of his seven chances.
San Francisco 49ers (1 to 2) — San Francisco’s best performances are better than a majority of the league’s best efforts, but they just haven’t played to their potential nearly enough this season. They had a ceiling performance in a 31-10 victory against the Rams last week, which was their first home victory since the last time they played the Rams at Levi’s Stadium on Oct. 18, 2020
Minnesota Vikings (1 to 1.5) — The Vikings have covered in three of their last four games after knocking off the Chargers as three-point road underdogs, despite dealing with multiple distractions last week. Justin Jefferson feasted last week with 9/143 receiving on 11 targets just a few days after OC Klint Kubiak said his star second-year receiver deserved more targets.
Philadelphia Eagles (-.5 to .5) — Philadelphia has been road warriors this season with all four of their victories coming away from Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles have rung up their best rushing yard totals in the last three weeks, and they’re averaging 208.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games.
Miami Dolphins (-3 to -2.5) — The Dolphins didn’t score an offensive touchdown until two minutes were left against the Ravens, and they still walked away with a 22-10 victory as eight-point home underdogs. Miami’s defense sacked Lamar Jackson four times and they limited him to a season-low 5.5 YPA in their victory.
Carolina Panthers (-2 to -1) — Cam Newton and P.J. Walker are quarterbacks with pulses, which proved to be significant upgrades for the Panthers in their first game in the post-Sam Darnold era. They throttled the previously one-loss Cardinals 34-10 as seven-point road underdogs, and Christian McCaffrey is back to being a massive difference-maker with 161 scrimmage yards on 23 touches.
Washington Football Team (-3 to -2.5) — Washington is coming off of an impressive victory with a 29-19 win over the Buccaneers as 10-point home underdogs. They used a 19-play, 80-yard scoring drive that took 10:26 of time to put the game on ice in the fourth quarter. However, Washington suffered one of the biggest injuries in Week 10 with second-year DE Chase Young going down for the year with a torn ACL.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5 to -4) — Jacksonville’s passing game is currently broken with Trevor Lawrence averaging a miserable 4.5 YPA and 172.7 passing yards per game in his last three contests. However, the Jaguars are playing some sneaky good defense the last two weeks, limiting Josh Allen and Carson Wentz to 5.5 YPA in Weeks 9-10.
Detroit Lions (-5.5 to -5) — Lions’ HC Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties from OC Anthony Lynn coming out of their bye, and he showed a strong commitment to running the rock and taking the ball out of Jared Goff’s hands. The Lions finished with 39 carries compared to 29 dropbacks in their 16-16 tie against the Steelers in Week 10.
Week 11 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7 to 6.5) — The Buccaneers have lost consecutive games for the first time since the end of last November, which was right before they went on an eight-game winning streak to capture the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay owns a disappointing 3-6 ATS record, and the offense hasn’t been the same without Rob Gronkowski (back) and Antonio Brown (heel). The Bucs also lost big DT Vita Vea to a sprained MCL at the end of their loss to Washington, which is a massive loss for their front four.
Los Angeles Rams (7 to 6) — The Rams are making plenty of headlines with their additions of Odell Beckham and Von Miller in recent weeks, but they’ve dropped four straight games ATS and they’ve been blown out by a combined 33 points in consecutive games against the 49ers and Titans despite entering as a combined 10.5-point favorites in those contests. The Rams suddenly can’t slow down an interior pass rush, and they’ll be without #2 WR Robert Woods (ACL) for the rest of the season.
Baltimore Ravens (5 to 4.5) — Lamar Jackson and OC Greg Roman had no answers for Miami’s blitz-heavy defense in their 10-point performance against the Dolphins. Jackson averaged a season-low 5.5 YPA and he absorbed four sacks, and the Ravens averaged just 4.3 yards per play and converted just 2-of-14 third-down attempts. The Ravens had their 51-game streak with 14+ points snapped last week. Only the Patriots’ 63-game streak from 2009-2013 lasted longer.
Los Angeles Chargers (3 to 2.5) — The Chargers have dropped three of their last four games outright and ATS since Mike Williams turned back into the Big Mike we knew from his first four seasons in the NFL. Herbert has averaged 5.0 YPA or worse while completing less than 59% of his passes in Los Angeles’ three losses in the last four games, and he’s fallen below 225 passing yards in each of those defeats.
Seattle Seahawks (3 to 2) — Russell Wilson’s first game back from finger surgery didn’t go as planned with the Seahawks getting shut out for the first time since 2011, which was the season before the Seahawks drafted Wilson. He completed just half of his passes and he averaged just 4.0 YPA against the Packers, and he’s now fallen below 165 passing yards in three straight games this season.
Cleveland Browns (2.5 to 1.5) — Cleveland’s offense went back to the struggle bus after their 41-point aberration against the Bengals in Week 9, scoring just seven points and averaging 3.7 yards per play against the Patriots. Baker Mayfield continues to labor through his left shoulder injury and a knee injury knocked him out against the Patriots, and CB Troy Hill suffered a scary neck injury.
Las Vegas Raiders (1 to 0) — The Raiders could be headed toward another mid-season swoon for the third straight season after a disappointing loss to the Giants in Week 9 and a humiliating loss to the Chiefs in Week 10. The Raiders dropped four straight games late in 2019 to fall out of playoff contention after a 6-4 start, and they lost 5-of-6 games after a 6-3 start in 2020.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1 to 0) — The Steelers gave up 229 rushing yards to the Lions last week, which was just the ninth time Pittsburgh has allowed 200+ rushing yards in the last 51 years. Pittsburgh has a MASH unit right now as they could be without the likes of OLB T.J. Watt (knee/hip), QB Ben Roethlisberger (COVID), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (COVID), and WR Chase Claypool (toe) this week against the Chargers.
Atlanta Falcons (-1 to -2) — The Falcons are down to Kyle Pitts at the skill positions and that’s about it after Cordarrelle Patterson went down with a high-ankle sprain. Matt Ryan completed just 9/21 passes (42.9%) for 117 yards (5.6 YPA) with the Falcons mustering just three points and just 4.0 yards per play against the Cowboys.
