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Week 11 ThriveFantasy Picks


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Week 11 ThriveFantasy Picks

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Thursday Night Football

The NFL gave us a rematch up Super Bowl LI when the Patriots rallied from a 28-3 deficit to beat the Falcons in stunning fashion. These teams look nothing like those teams from just five seasons ago, with Matt Ryan and Bill Belichick as the last remaining major artifacts from that contest. The Patriots are still prominently featuring their slot WR every week, and I’m taking Jakobi Meyers (NE) over 3.5 receptions (75 pts). He has 4+ catches in nine of his 10 games this season, and rookie slot CB Avery Williams is allowing a 75% completion percentage in his direction. I’m fading Kyle Pitts (Atl) under 55.5 receiving yards (120 pts) for my second prop. The Falcons could be down to just Pitts at the skill positions if Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is unable to play, and Belichick will be determined to wipe Pitts out this week. The Patriots are giving up just 2.9/29.5 receiving per game to TEs this season. Good luck! — Tom Brolley

Thrive gives the option for Brandon Bolden to be over/under 45.5 total yards (rushing + receiving). Interestingly enough, Bolden has almost split the over/under for this in the nine games he has played with four above and five under. Back-to-back weeks have been above but seeing both rookie Rhamondre Stevenson go off on the ground as well as catch four passes last week without Damien Harris, I am thinking the rookie earned himself a role. I expect the split in the backfield this game to feature Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson for work, leaving small scraps to Bolden. I am selecting Brandon Bolden under 45.5 total yards (85 pts). Keep your eye on his status as well as he is dealing with a hip issue this week (which may even further add to this). My second pick will be rookie QB Mac Jones under 240.5 passing yards (105 pts). Although Mac is coming off a great game, that outing vs. Cleveland proved that he can be an efficient passer in the TD (three last game) and completion % (82.6% last game) categories without needing to air it out for results. I expect New England to establish the run and be efficient with their passing game, which I project to result in Mac Jones throwing for under 240.5 in this one.

  • Nick Skrip

Sunday Football

Looking to keep my Thrive Fantasy picks stream alive here, with my first selection to be Darren Waller over 5.5 total receptions (95 pts). Waller has only hit this mark twice this year, and the Bengals have actually been good against the TE position this year, but I have faith due to seeing 18 targets across the last two games. Week 9 Waller had seven catches, so I am hoping for something similar this week. Seeing that TD get taken away from him last week may add some fire for both him and his team to push for him to have a good day as well. My other Thrive selection involves Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. The rookie has struggled the last three games in a row with his completion percentage, with all of those games being under 60%. Lawrence also has back-to-back games of zero passing TD’s, with his season on totalling one game where he threw for over one TD. Unfortunately I believe the TD limitations continue vs. SF, and I am picking Trevor Lawrence under 1.5 total passing TD’s (90 pts).

  • Nick Skrip

It’s almost time to stuff ourselves with turkey and football on Thanksgiving Day, but we have one more Sunday of game before we get there. I’m looking for A.J. Brown (Ten) to go over 77.5 receiving yards and bounce back this week. He’s in an ideal spot to get right against a Texans’ secondary that’s allowing 14.0 YPR, and he’s ripped Houston in each of his last four matchups against them. I’m taking Cam Newton (Car) under 199.5 passing yards for my second prop. He’s set to make his first start of the 2021 season, and he’s coming off of a 2020 campaign in which he threw for eight TDs and 10 INTs while averaging just 177.1 passing yards per game. There’s also talk that the Panthers could rotate P.J. Walker at quarterback since Cam has had just a week to learn the offense. For my final prop, I’m going with my boy Deebo Samuel (SF) over 75.5 receiving yards. He gets a pristine matchup against rookie Tyson Campbell and a Jaguars’ secondary that’s giving up the seventh-most receiving yards per game (182.2), and Deebo has hung 90+ yards in six of his nine games this season. Good luck! — Tom Brolley

Monday Night Football

The Buccaneers haven’t won a game in nearly a month (Oct. 24 vs Chicago), and they’ve lost consecutive games for the first time since the end of last November, which was right before they went on an eight-game winning streak to capture the Lombardi Trophy. They’ll look to contain a healthy Giants’ offense this week, but I’m still taking Kadarius Toney (NYG) over 40.5 receiving yards (100 pts). He’s managed just 8/71 receiving in his last three games since exploding for 16/267 receiving in Weeks 4-5, but he’s finally off the injury report this week and he’ll get a favorable matchup out of the slot with Sterling Shepard (quad) out of the lineup. I’m also selecting Evan Engram (NYG) under 50.5 receiving yards (75 pts) with the Giants’ skill players as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season. He’s averaging by far a career-low 8.6 YPR, which is nearly two yards below his previous career low of 10.4 yards from last season, and he’s fallen below 50 receiving yards in all but one of his seven games. Good luck! — Tom Brolley

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