General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Tom Brady possesses zero mobility so there is really only one way he gets to the captain spot in this game and that’s by spreading the football around for multiple touchdowns to multiple players. If you’re rostering him in the captain spot, you have to roster him in 4-2 or 5–1 builds with multiple pass-catchers
Chris Godwin has been an animal without Antonio Brown in the lineup. He owns a 26% air yard share and 28% target share since Brown went down. He dominates the intermediate part of the field where Brady likes to target so heavily. He’s going to be popular so you have to have a dart in your lineup with a Brady/Godwin stack.
Mike Evans is the opposite of Godwin in that timeframe, he only has 15% of the targets but leads the team with 30% of the air yards. It’s obvious from those stats he’s getting the deep shots. His 15 yard aDOT makes him a volatile play on this slate. It often puts him in the Tyler Lockett bucket of captain or bust. Meaning if he reels in his targets he usually puts together the best fantasy day on the slate.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Daniel Jones turns the ball over a few times, but the Buccaneers are a supreme pass funnel, it’s not even worth trying to establish a ground game because they are so adept at stopping the run. Jones may get there on scrambles and volume passing. He’s cheap enough that it’s worth a captain dart, but also a staple in the flex.
Kadarius Toney worries me a tad because the Giants took him off the field a lot in their previous games in lieu of multiple tight ends to protect Daniel Jones. There was much made of the fact he wasn’t on the field a lot and only had one target, so I think this is a classic spot to get him involved if they can protect Jones.
Flex
Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard, and Ronald Jones haven't been difficult to handicap over the last few weeks, but I do think this game will be different. Arians remarked that Bernard and Jones didn’t play much last game because the Buccaneers only ran 48 plays. It seemed to me that he was inferring that Bernard and Jones will be involved more as long as the pace is picked up a bit. I like working all three of these guys into your player pool. Fournette obviously works as a core play since he’ll get the majority of the work. However I like adding Bernard with Brady captains in hopes he can catch one of Tom’s touchdowns. Jones as a complete pivot from the rest of the offense in hopes he somehow falls into the end zone once or twice is viable in limited lineups
Tyler Johnson works in the same area as Godwin, so I think it’s smart to limit how much exposure you have to each of them in the same lineup. Johnson will be on the field a ton, it’s just a matter if there is enough volume to go around. You can definitely pair Godwin and Johnson together in the flex, but if Godwin is your captain, it’s likely Johnson got left out of the action.
Cameron Brate and OJ Howard are the end zone threats outside of Evans and Godwin. They make sense in Brady lineups because if he needs to hit a bunch of passing touchdowns to be the optimal captain, the odds are that a tight end will get in on the action. Brate has been more active than Howard in the passing game, nearly double him up in target share.
Saquon Barkley and Devontae Booker both come into the night with questionable tags so we’ll have to monitor the situation. I don’t love either back in this matchup. If either is out the other is an okay play getting the bulk of the action, but you’ll have to hop for a 5-50 type receiving line plus a touchdown because not much is going to happen on the ground for these backs
Kenny Golladay has only played one of the last three games for the Giants, but in that game he saw 53% of the air yards. No matter your opinion of Golladay’s talent or failure to convert that talent into fantasy points recently, he is going to get the opportunity on this one-game slate that makes him impossible to ignore. Context matters in that I wouldn’t play Golladay on a full slate on Sunday most likely, but I can’t let that drive roster building in showdown. I think he’s a solid play at his price point.
Darius Slayton is also in play with an aDOT of 12.3 over the lat month. He tends to disappear from game to game, but can also have a splash play that immediately vaults him into the optimal lineup.
Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph will be staples in my Daniel Jones captain lineups. Pretty much the only way Engram or Rudolph get there is by scoring a receiving touchdown. Engram has a bit more PPR upside, but he also costs a good bit more as well.
"Rob Gronkowski will be active tonight. I’m not too excited about him at his current salary as he also may be eased back into the offense. He makes sense in Brady captain lineups. It’s a bit of a downgrade to Brate and Howard as well."
Lineup Starters
Captain: Tom Brady
Flex: Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, Kadarius Toney
Captain: Mike Evans
Flex: Tom Brady, Daniel Jones, Kyle Rudolph
Captain: Chris Godwin
Flex: Bucs DST, Leonard Fournette, Kenny Golladay
Captain: Daniel Jones
Flex: Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, Mike Evans
Captain: Kadarius Toney
Flex: Chris Godwin, Tom Brady, Tyler Johnson
