The first game of bowl season kicks off from the beautiful backdrop of The Bahamas. Draft Kings has the UAB Blazers as an 11 point favorite heading into Friday’s tilt and it’s easy to see why. **DeWayne McBride **has been excellent for the Blazers all season and while they have mostly underperformed, their second-order win of 7.9 shows that they shouldn’t be overlooked. The Blazers have one appearance in the Bahamas Bowl where they lost to Ohio 41-6 in 2017.

For the Redhawks, they have quarterback Brett Gabbert in the transfer portal but **Aveon Smith **has been more than capable. The rushing game has been the key for this team, as they are 5-1 ML when they rush for 120 or more yards and a paltry UAB rushing defense ranked 94th in the nation is 2-5 when allowing 140 or more rushing yards.

The units will be strength vs strength with the UAB offense and the Miami OH defense being the best two units on the field. This will become the McBride show as he uses this to further stamp his resume as an electric running back for the Blazers.

— Tyler Forness

Typically one of the best defenses in the Group of 5, UAB took a huge step back on that side of the ball in the first season sans program legend Bill Clark. The Blazers fell to 65th in EPA per play and 85th in Success Rate, unthinkable numbers for a program that usually prides itself on shutting down its opponents en route to C-USA dominance. It’s no surprise that they slipped to a 6-6 record, their worst showing since the program rebooted in 2017.

The market was slow to react to the fact that UAB is not on its typical level, as the Blazers were just 4-8 ATS on the season. All four of those covers came at home, while they were a miserable 0-6 ATS on the road.

Miami has struggled mightily offensively this season and that may continue without quarterback Brett Gabbert in the lineup. That being said, this line feels inflated as the market has had entirely too much confidence in UAB all season. Miami’s strength is in stopping the run (11th in EPA per rush, 13th in Line Yards, 10th in Rushing Explosiveness), which should serve them well in this matchup. I fancy this to be a low-scoring battle.

— JD Yonke

There is a real argument to be made that the Roadrunners were the best Group of Five team in college football this season. **Frank Harris **led a dynamic offense that is the most efficient passing offensive in the nation. Zakhari Franklin leads a dynamic group of receivers that understand how to get open on all three levels of the field and can take advantage of opposing defenses with Harris’ dual-threat ability. The only game in which the Roadrunners weren’t competitive was against Texas and they were a two-point conversion away from potentially getting that NY6 bowl game over Tulane.

The Troy Trojans are somewhat of a surprise team. They didn’t come into the season with a lot of hype, but their defense has come through in a big way. They are SP+’s 10th ranked defense and they have carried the team along with the running game. Kimani Vidal has rushed for over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns on the season and will have a tough matchup against a UTSA defense that is incredibly efficient against the run. HItting explosive passes down the field will be key to taking down the Roadrunners.

— Tyler Forness

UTSA has already won the offseason with QB Frank Harris announcing that he will return for his seventh, and final, season. Harris leads one of the top offensive attacks in the entire country as UTSA ranks 12th in scoring offense (38.7) and 9th in total offense (486.5). Harris is averaging 308.6 PASS YPG as he is paired with two of the best WRs in Conference USA, Zakhari Franklin and Joshua Cephus. On the ground, Kevorian Barnes has been a revelation over the last month of the season rushing for at least 100 yards in three of their last five games, including 175 in the Conference USA championship game.

On the other hand, Troy is one of the hottest group of five teams in the country with a top 20 defense. In fact, the Troy defense is top 10 in points allowed (17.5 PPG). However, the only team to hold UTSA below 30 points all year was Texas, so Troy will have to figure out how to put up some points themselves on Friday afternoon. Their offense was led by their passing attack much of the year, averaging 252.8 YPG, but it’s RBs Kimani Vidal and DK Billingley who have been the focal over the last three weeks. VIdal rushed for over 200 yards in two straight games to end the regular season while Billingsley had three rushing TDs versus Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt championship game.

This is one of the top bowl games, and while I could certainly make a case for either team, it’s hard to envision any team slowing down the UTSA offense at this point.

— Josh Chevalier

This rekindled rivalry game got quite a bit more interesting over the past week. After **Luke Fickell **left to take the Wisconsin job, the Bearcats poached Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield. It was a really odd hire as Satterfield has only been a .500 head coach with the Cardinals. His track record recruiting over the past few seasons paired with his track record from Appalachian State give them some hope.

The game itself is one of intrigue on how the players will handle it. The Bearcats will be without five pass catchers, but the Cardinals will be without star quarterback Malik Cunningham, wide receiver Tyler Hudson, and three of their top running backs. This game should be competitive considering how many players each team has opting out, but I’m riding with the Bearcats who will at the very least have their starting quarterback. Things could get really weird at Fenway Park.

— Tyler Forness

A lot to unpack here in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl. It will be fun to see how this old Big East rivalry pans out at Fenway Park. Both of these teams will be without their HC’s as Scott Satterfield will head from Louisville to… Cincinnati. Luke Fickell will leave Cinci for Wisconsin. Besides these two teams missing their coaches, the most notable absence will be Louisville QB **Malik Cunningham. **Cunningham did not have nearly the season he had last year but he one time Heisman candidate will surely be missed, along with his favorite target and teams leading receiver **Tyler Hudson. **

Although Cincinnati did not have a CFB Playoff level team, they still posted another solid year, finishing the season at 9-3. Besides losing to Power 5 Arkansas, their only other losses came to solid teams in Tulane and UCF and were by a combined seven points. The Bearcats will be without a few key pass catchers… Tre Tucker is the team’s second leading receiver and their top two tight ends,** Josh Whyle** and Leonard Taylor will be opting out as well. Although these may be hefty blows to the offense, they were never the key to this team's success. This team thrives off the success of their defense and I think that will be the key here, especially with Louisville being without Cunningham and Hudson. Give me the Bearcats in a low scoring affair.

— Matt Gannon

This game added some more intrigue with it being the last game for Jackson State head coach Deion Sanders. He has accepted the job at Colorado but wanted to finish out the season for Jackson State. He has some unfinished business with the Celebration Bowl, as South Carolina State whalloped them 31-10 last year. They head into the bowl undefeated at 12-0.

NC Central won the MEAC at 9-2 even after an early season loss to South Carolina State. They have been really good on offense this season led by dual-threat quarterback **Davius Richardson **who has over 3,000 yards and 37 total touchdowns on the season. Turnovers could prove to be huge in this game, as Tigers have turned the ball over 20 times this season and the Eagles have been very opportunistic on defense.

— Tyler Forness

NC Central and Jackson State face off in Atlanta for the Super Bowl of HBCU Football. The SWAC Champs, Jackson State come in undefeated looking to avenge last year’s Celebration Bowl loss. The MEAC Champs, NC Central come in with just two losses and are looking to repeat what South Carolina State did to Jackson State last year. It is no secret that Jackson State is the better football team as they are two touchdown favorites and have a roster of talent that could be mistaken for a decent FBS team. Although this is Coach Sanders final game as Jackson State HC and they have a lot to play for, I would expect NC Central to show some competition and keep this within the number. The MEAC schedule is a bit tougher than the SWAC schedule in my opinion. Even though these scores may look one sided on paper, NC Central faced tougher teams in my opinion. Look for Jackson State to take home the Celebration Bowl trophy while NC Central cashes some tickets. For what it’s worth, I will not be betting this game as I prefer not to wager on FCS football but my lean sides with NC Central and the points.

*— Matt Gannon *

This looked like a very fun and juicy matchup. Both teams have passing attacks that can be explosive, but both have major players missing. BYU will be without RB **Lopina Katoa **and likely won’t see quarterback Jaren Hall either. That puts the Cougars in a pickle, as they have struggled mightily on offense without Hall behind center. Puka Nacua and Miles Davis will need to be on their A-games without a starting caliber quarterback on the field.

For the Mustangs, Tanner Mordecai will be playing in the game and that means everything. Sure star wide receiver Rashee Rice decided to opt out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft, but it’s Mordecai that makes **Rhett Lashlee’s **offense run. Mordecai took a slight step back after he lost multiple weapons to the NFL and the transfer portal but in turn he has been smarter with the football and shrunk his interception numbers by 25%. This offense should be able to easily carve up a BYU defense that has struggled in all facets of the game.

— Tyler Forness

When this bowl game was announced, it was expected to be one of the highest scoring games. However, things have slightly changed for both teams evidenced by the line movement. BYU HC KIlane Sitake recently ruled out RB Lopini Katoa and inferred star QB Jaren Hall is doubtful to play in the bowl. On top of that, backup QB Jacob Conover transferred to Arizona State since the transfer portal opened on December 5th. They are currently looking at starting former Boise State QB Cade Fennegan, who quite frankly, isn’t very good and hasn’t seen meaningful game action since 2020 when he played, of all teams, BYU. We have seen the line move down 9 points to a game total of 64.5 points and the spread move 7 points making the Cougars 5.5 point underdogs.

SMU has not come out unscathed from opt outs or injuries losing star WR Rashee Rice and top OL Jaylon Thomas. However, QB Tanner Mordecai should be the healthiest he has been all year after getting a few weeks to recover from several injuries including a broken rib. SMU HC Rhett Lashlee said he expects WRs Kelvontay Dixon and Jordan Kerley to step up in Rice’s absence and play significant roles in the passing attack. Another WR who could take advantage of his opportunity is Roderick Daniels. **Tyler Lavine **has led the backfield over the last month of the season and has been effective in wearing down opposing defenses. The BYU defense is one of the worst in the country, ranking 84th in PASS YPG (235.8), 98th in RUSH YPG (174.3), and 100th in PPG (30.0). This is SMU’s game to win and carry a ton of momentum heading into a promising 2023 season for the Mustangs.

— Josh Chevalier

This game is set to be one of the best in bowl season. The Bulldogs of Fresno State won the Mountain West after a 1-4 start to the season. They were also without quarterback Jake Haener for all or most of three of those losses. Having Haener the entire season could have the Bulldogs with 11 wins and only two losses. The offense is really impressive, running an air raid-inspired spread attack with a bevy of weapons including Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Nikko Remigio, and Jordan Mims. They showed how dangerous they can be when they crushed Boise State in the Mountain West title game.

Washington State came out of a year of turmoil with Nick Rolovich and his anti-vax crusade.** Jake Dickert** decided when making his offensive coordinator hire that he wanted to take a pass happy approach, but go in a different direction. He went to the FCS level and hired Incarnate Word head coach Eric Morris who already left to take the North Texas head coaching job. What is left for the Cougars is star quarterback Cam Ward. The offense has been spotty this season but Dickert’s defense is ranked 18th per SP+ and the under is 9-3.

WIth the spread being Washington State -3.5, the matchup is viewed as a close one by Vegas as it should be. The Bulldogs have played well against the best defenses on their schedule and that will continue, especially with the Cougars last time out being a 51-33 bloodbath in the Apple Cup.

— Tyler Forness

The motivation level for a team headed into a bowl game is increasingly becoming the biggest indicator in which team is going to win the game. RIght now, all of the motivation, and momentum, is on the side of Fresno State (and it’s not even close). The Bulldogs are looking to pull off their 9th straight win to close the season and their fourth straight bowl game. All of the key contributors have opted to play in this bowl game including their star offensive players:** Jake Haener, Jordan Mims**, ** Jalen Moreno-Cropper**, and *Nikko Remigio*. Fresno State also has a top 40 defense that will be firing on all cylinders in the bowl game.

On the other side, Washington State is pretty depleted at this point. They will not have both coordinators for this game as they took jobs elsewhere this offseason. QB Cameron Ward will be without his top two targets in the bowl game, De’Zhaun Stribling and Donovan Ollie. While Nakia Watson has been incredible down the stretch, he will not be enough to take down a hot Fresno State team. Defensively, it appears Washington State will be down three LBs and a DB for the game.

I’m struggling to see a path for Washington State to be competitive in this bowl, let alone cover the spread or even win it. I’m all-in on Fresno State in this Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl.

After spending what felt like a decade in the doldrums of college football, Rice makes a bowl game due to being first in APR. They have had some impressive performances, including wins over Louisiana and UAB plus a one score loss to Houston. For a team that hasn’t had the consistency at the quarterback position that you would like, it’s a really impressive performance from the Owls.

For the Golden Eagles, they have had an up and down season, but their most important stat is record against the spread. They are 9-3 ATS and their 75.0 winning percentage sits at fourth in the nation. The spread is currently -6.5 on DraftKings and that isn’t nearly high enough for me to take Rice. Give me the Golden Eagles and their better roster by two touchdowns.

— Tyler Forness

Both of these teams were extremely difficult to handicap all season long so naturally, they got matched up against each other. Looking up and down each schedule, both have some really good wins and some head scratching losses. The most impressive win came in September when Southern Miss went down to New Orleans and defeated Tulane… a team that will be playing for a Cotton Bowl Title in January. The most head scratching loss has to be when Rice hosted Charlotte and not only fell to them but got defeated by a score of 56-23. Charlotte finished the season at 3-9. With no major opt outs listed on these rosters, what you see is what you get and I believe the Golden Eagles have the more complete roster and resume.

— Matt Gannon

This has the potential to end up like the 2020 Sugar Bowl where Oklahoma boatraced the Florida Gators due to a ton of opt outs. The Gators come into this game having a ton of them headlined by star quarterback Anthony Richardson, wide receiver Justin Shorter, and guard O’Cyrus Torrence along with linebacker Ventrell Miller. Their best success has come on the ground with **Montrell Johnson **and **Trevor Etienne **shouldering the load. Ohio State transfer **Jack Miller **will get his first extensive playing time and an opportunity to put his claim in for the starting job next year. The defense is a mess and, while the Beavers struggle throwing the football, they can’t stop the run barely ranking top 100 in efficiency and 123rd in success rate.

Oregon State showed that they don’t need to throw the football to beat a really good team, rallying from 21 down to beat rival Oregon 38-34. **Jonathan Smith **has turned the Beavers into one of the more consistent teams in the country. They are incredibly consistent in the running game and **Jack Colletto **will be able to have some fun as well.

The Gators rushing attack and ability to stay with every team they have faced could allow them to keep this close, especially if they end up having something in Miller. The Beavers 10-2 record ATS this season gives me major cause for concern. I’m taking the Beavers to cover.

— Tyler Forness

Oregon State has a significant advantage in this spot due to the fact that they’ll be relatively full-strength for this matchup while Florida enters severely short-handed. Other than star cornerback Rejzohn Wright (first team All-Pac-12 Defense), there aren’t any impact losses as **Chance Nolan **already lost his quarterback job and tight end Luke Musgrave hasn’t played since getting injured in the second game of the season. The Gators, meanwhile, will be without many impact contributors including their top two quarterbacks (Anthony Richardson is headed to the NFL, while Jalen Kitna is headed to a courtroom, at best), star interior lineman (O’Cyrus Torrence), third-leading tackler (Ventrell Miller), and second-leading receiver (Justin Shorter).

I believe Jonathan Smith is one of the most underrated coaches in America, and naturally I’m selecting his Beavers team to grab a victory in this spot by victimizing a Gators defense that ranks 93rd in EPA per play and 102nd in Success Rate. The Beavers should own the trenches on offense as they rank 15th in Line Yards and 17th in Havoc allowed by the front seven, whereas Florida ranks 102nd in EPA per rush and 95th in Rushing Success rate on defense. This Oregon State offense works best when it can run, and it should be able to with relative ease in this spot.

I still tend to lean toward Florida against the spread, however, as the market is offering no discount on the Beavers by establishing them as a large favorite. This is still the Pac-12 vs. the SEC, after all, and we saw Florida take down the Pac-12 champs (Utah) to open the season. While this matchup is not an apples to apples comparison (and more importantly, won’t take place in the Swamp), Billy Napier is 17-3-1 ATS in his last 21 games as an underdog and the offense should still be able to run the ball.

— JD Yonke

The Mean Green made the surprise fire of the year by sending head coach Seth Litrell packing after an appearance in the Conference USA title game. He had a .500 record as the head coach over his seven seasons but they had taken a nice step this year, including a 6-2 record in conference. They hired Washington State offensive coordinator Eric Morris to be their next head coach, but this season isn’t the Air Raid, but rather a multi-faceted rushing attack that wears you down.

The Broncos started out the season 2-2 and after a brutal home loss to UTEP 27-10, **Hank Bachmeier **entered the transfer portal and **Taylen Green **led this team back to end the regular season at 9-3. The defense is this team’s calling card and they will have a tough test against a Mean Green offense that is number one in marginal explosiveness. It won’t be the easiest matchup, but one that they should be able to handle.

— Tyler Forness

Fun matchup here in Frisco… glorified home game for the Mean Green but they will have to hold off Boise State and that stout defense coming from up north as double digit favorites. This is the final showcase for North Texas quarterback Austin Anne as he attempts an NFL career. The 29 year old senior with an entire family has passed for 7,086 yards and 55 touchdowns in his UNT career. North Texas will be without head coach Seth Littrell who was fired after seven years.

Boise State comes in losing in the Mountain West finals to Fresno State but had a successful 9-3 regular season. Quarterback Taylen Green took over for **Hank Bachmeier **and was extremely successful as he turned around the Broncos’ season. Although he was awesome for them on the offensive side of the ball, this team is led by its defense as they rank 11th in the country in opponent yards per play.

On the other end, North Texas has a top 15 offense in that same category. Although Boise is the better team and plays a tougher schedule, I am expecting the Mean Green offense to keep them within the number. Boise will look to pound the rock and control the clock, the more time goes by, the better chance North Texas will have to cover. Combine all of that with this game being 30 minutes away from North Texas’ campus and I think they will show up ready to play.

— Matt Gannon

After **Rasheen Ali **left the team due to personal reasons right before the start of the season, the Thundering Herd was left reeling, but **Khalan Laborn **stepped up in a major way by running for over 1,400 yards. Ali did return after 10 games and helped contribute to one of the better rushing attacks in the nation. They face a UConn defense that is atrocious in both efficiency and allowing explosive plays.

UConn making a bowl in head coach **Jim Mora Jr.’s **first season is nothing but impressive. What’s more impressive is that the Huskies have averaged less than 20 points per game on offense along with a mediocre defense. In due time, Mora Jr. is going to have this program continue on the upswing but this is not going to be pretty. Marshall should roll and easily cover.

— Tyler Forness

The Myrtle Beach Bowl is UConn’s first appearance in a bowl game since 2015. Ironically, they also played Marshall in their last bowl game. Quite frankly, it’s quite impressive UConn made it to a bowl considering they are very bad offensively and mediocre defensively. The Huskies are one of the worst scoring offenses in the nation, averaging a meager 19.8 PPG. They will be facing a stingy Marshall defense ranked 7th in scoring (16.2). UConn is going to have a tough time scoring points in thor first bowl in seven years.

On the other side, Marshall is one of the best rushing teams in the country averaging 205.6 YPG. They are led by dynamic RB Khalan Laborn who had 281 carries for 1,423 yards and 19 TDs. He replaced stud RB Rashaan Ali who sat out the first 10 games of the season. However, he came back for the last two games to run the ball 32 times for 181 yards. THe UConn defense is ranked 88th in RUSH YPG (166.3) so Marshall should be able to establish the run with ease in this contest.

Marshall is set up to win big and cover the spread in the only bowl game on Monday.

— Josh Chevalier

How about Eastern Michigan? They sit at 8-4 on the year and hold a win over Arizona State that got the Sun Devils coach Herm Edwards fired. They had one of their best seasons to date, but a 24-21 loss to Toledo kept them out of the MAC title game. An offense built more on efficiency than explosiveness, the catalyst is running back Samson Evans who has rushed for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.

The Spartans had a great start to the season, including a close loss 24-16 against Auburn in the second week of the season. Unfortunately, tragedy struck midseason as running back Camden McWright passed away unexpectedly. After a promising start, they struggled down the stretch, including only a seven-point win over Nevada and back-to-back losses to both San Diego State and Utah State. They are among the worst in the country ATS this season and expect that trend to continue.

— Tyler Forness

San Jose State simply hasn’t been the same team since the tragic death of freshman running back Camdan McWright earlier this season. After a promising start to the season, the Spartans went just 3-3 to finish the year and were ultimately left out of the Mountain West championship picture.

That being said, they’re still the better team in this matchup. While playing in the cold may not be ideal for a Bay Area team, the Spartans are stout defensively (42nd in EPA per play, 30th in Success Rate). They’re dominant up front led by seniors Junior Fehoko (career 46.5 TFL, 23 sacks) and Cade Hall (career 42.5 TFL, 25.5 sacks) and should push around an EMU offensive line ranking 101st in Havoc allowed by the front seven. The Under sticks out to me at 54.5.

— JD Yonke

WIll Liberty show up in this game? They certainly didn’t in the last three weeks of the season once rumors started swirling that head coach Hugh Freeze was a candidate for other jobs. They got lambasted by New Mexico State 49-14 in the final regular season game after losing close games to UConn and Virginia Tech. Not a great sign for a team that was 8-1. New head coach Jamey Chadwell is going to have a solid team next year, but this squad is reeling big time.

Things aren't the same way for the Rockets, as they beat a tough Ohio team 17-7 in the MAC title game. Dual-threat quarterback Dequan Finn will be the catalyst for the Rockets. He was oft-injured this season with an ankle injury, but he supposedly will be coming into this game healthy and that will make the biggest difference in the game.

— Tyler Forness

This will be the first sporting event as I attend as a Florida resident as I am moving down to South Florida this week. Any Fantasy Points subscribers down there feel free to message me! Now to the game… What a weird season it was for Liberty. I did not have the highest of expectations for them coming into the season but they looked impressive picking up wins against BYU and Arkansas, only to follow that up with losses to some of the worst teams in the country UConn and New Mexico State. Toledo had an up and down season as well, beating some of the better MAC teams and falling to some of the lower tier MAC teams. A very wonky season of results for both teams should result in a great matchup.

We will see two full rosters for this matchup which is always great to see in bowl season. The only face we will miss is Hugh Freeze as he will be leaving a very successful tenure at Liberty to go back to the SEC and coach at Auburn. Josh Aldridge will step into his place and coach this Flame squad in Boca. Liberty has done well playing up to their competition and playing in meaningful games. They played two ACC schools this season lost by a single point both times, I already noted they beat both BYU and Arkansas. Their most difficult games came to teams like UConn, NM State, and FCS team Gardner Webb. Combine that with playing for a new coach, them being listed as underdogs, and this being a meaningful game and I see this being a great spot for Liberty to get the win.

— Matt Gannon

This game almost lost a little bit of its juice as Hilltoppers quarterback Austin Reed had entered the transfer portal. He has since taken his name out of it and will play in Wednesday’s game. While the offense isn’t quite what it was in 2021 under Bailey Zappe, the Hilltoppers are still dynamic. Reed has thrown for 4.246 yards and 36 touchdowns to lead an aerial attack that is second in the nation. The Hilltoppers live and die with their passing attack and the catalyst is Malachi Corley.

The Jaguars’ have been a remarkably good 10-2 this season with their only losses to an 11 win Troy team 10-6 and a one point loss to UCLA. They are stout on defense and capable on offense. The real matchup in this game will be the Jaguars defense against the Hilltoppers offense. The one area that Reed can exploit is in the deep passing game. They are great at generating explosive plays in the passing game and that is the one area that the Jaguars can be exploited.

— Tyler Forness

The New Orleans Bowl is one of the best Group of 5 matchups this bowl season, featuring a 10-2 South Alabama squad and an 8-5 Western Kentucky team. A closer inspection of both team’s resumes leaves one even more impressed than they were initially, as USA’s two losses came to UCLA by one point by Sun Belt champion Troy by four. WKU on the other hand, lost to two Power 5 schools and three Group of 5 teams that all made it to their respective conference championship games (Troy, UTSA, North Texas).

The big news in this one is the availability of WKU quarterback Austin Reed, the nation’s second-leading passer with 4,249 passing yards to pair with 36 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal for a bit before option to return, so for now we are assuming he’s playing in the bowl game. A first look leads one to believe that the Hilltoppers are catching too many points because they rank top 30 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball. They’ll be severely short-handed, however, without two starting offensive linemen, second-leading receiver, two top tight ends, top cornerback, starting safety, and starting kicker. Winning the trenches was already a huge concern in this spot, and it’s now a huge question mark. Early returns on C-USA during bowl season are very underwhelming, and now their five-loss representative must take on a two-loss Sun Belt representative. USA! USA! USA!

— JD Yonke

Despite being in Fort Worth, Texas, this game is going to be a cold one with the temperature being a projected 19 degrees. That plays right into Air Force’s hands, as their option offense will already give the Baylor defense fits. Fullback **Brad Daniels **and quarterback **Haaziq Daniels **lead a modernized version of the triple option offense that leads the FBS in rushing and is incredibly explosive through the air.

Baylor has played better than their 6-6 record would tell you. They were a couple yards away from knocking off TCU in Waco and a crazy overtime away from beating BYU in Provo. The defense is the calling card for **Dave Aranda’s **squad, but they have taken a step back this season. They rank outside the top 100 in efficiency against both the run and the pass, something that does not bode well against **Troy Calhoun’s **squad. The weather and rushing acumen of the Falcons will give them the upset win as they head to Fort Worth to take out the Bears.

— Tyler Forness

The Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX will have lots of intrigue when Baylor and Air Force kickoff on Thursday. The Air Force Falcons are the top rushing team in the country, averaging 335.3 YPG. The Falcons are led by FB Brad Roberts on the ground who finished third in the country in rushing yards (1,612). Roberts averaged 25 carries per game. When Roberts rushes for 100 yards, the Falcons are 9-1 on the season. The two teams, Wyoming and Boise State, who held Roberts under 100 yards, defeated the Falcons.

The key to victory for Baylor is obvious. Hold Roberts below 100 yards rushing, Baylor wins the game. HC Dave Aranda fired his DC following the conclusion of the 2022 season so he will be calling plays in the bowl. Aranda is an elite defensive playcaller who is excellent at taking away the opponent’s strength. The Baylor defense is ranked 46th in RUSH YPG (137.6) and 47th in RUSH YPC (3.85). However, they did allow 22 TDs on the ground, which put them in the bottom 40 in that category. Air Force has one of the best overall defenses in the nation so they will certainly make it tough on Baylor to score.

Ultimately, this is going to end up being a tough defensive battle. I trust the Aranda and the Baylor defense to slow down the vaunted Air Force rushing attack and win this game. Although I do think Air Force will cover the spread.

— Josh Chevalier

This is a game with two teams that massively under-achieved. The Ragin’ Cajuns lost head coach **Billy Napier **in the offseason and that loss hurt them more than Vegas thought it would. They had the Ragin’ Cajuns with a win total of 8.5 and their second-order wins were only 6.1. The defense has been above average but the offense only gains 367 yards per game which ranks 84th in the nation.

The Cougars had a great start to the season with a 37-35 win in triple overtime over UTSA but the wheels fell off early on as they started 2-3. The offense was explosive but the inconsistency of quarterback **Clayton Tune **ended up being a big reason that they didn’t take the step that a lot of people thought they would after a 12-2 season in 2021.

The best bet on this game is going to be the over as the Cougars are tops in the country in hitting the over and do so by an average of 11.6 PPG. The best unit on the field is the Cougars offense and that is where my bet goes.

— Tyler Forness

I’m a noted critic of Dana Holgorsen’s tactics. His teams haven’t found much success in bowl season, going 2-7 ATS, and it seems as though he simply doesn’t care about having success in postseason games. That being said, I don’t believe Houston will need to be amped up in this contest to prove the superior side. At the time of this writing, it (surprisingly) appears as though stars **Tank Dell **and Clayton Tune will play in the bowl games, providing a little more confidence that the Cougars are taking this game somewhat seriously … famous last words.

Louisiana will be without its starting quarterback, Ben Woolridge, due to an ACL injury. Leading receiver **Michael Jefferson **and leading sack artist Andre Jones will skip the bowl game for the NFL Draft, leaving the Ragin’ Cajuns significantly short-handed. Houston is the better team anyway, and will have the upper hand both when they have the ball and when Louisiana is trying to maneuver down the field. Louisiana needed a win over Texas State to even reach bowl eligible, which is a pretty sad sentence, and the program took a huge, and immediate, step back sans Billy Napier

— JD Yonke

This is one of the better bowl matchups on the calendar. The Demon Deacons were waiting on the decision of **Sam Hartman **as it was rumored that he might either enter the transfer portal or enter the NFL draft. He will play in this game and that will make things interesting for a really good Missouri defense. The duo of Hartman and **A.T. Perry **will be key for the success of the Demon Deacons who are extremely efficient running that slow mesh RPO passing offense.

The Tigers are starting to load up on offense, but in this game not having **Dominic Lovett **could prove to be a bridge too far. He led the Tigers in receiving this year but **Luther Burden **is primed to step up. He has developed a rapport with quarterback Brady Cook and they can take advantage of a Wake Forest defense that is incredibly inefficient at defending the pass.

Overall, this is a tight matchup between two battle tested teams. In these situations, give me the better quarterback and that is far and away Hartman.

— Tyler Forness

Power 5 affair down in Tampa as high powered Demon Deacons of Wake Forest meet the frisky Tigers of Memphis. The biggest question coming into this game was the status of Wake Forest QB **Sam Hartman. **It was unsure if he would test the waters of the NFL draft or stay to play this bowl game. Thankfully, he is playing and it looks like he is coming back to Winston-Salem for another year as Wake Forest’s QB. Hartman is one of the most prolific passers in college football as he ranks inside the top 15 in passing touchdowns, passing yards, and QBR. His main target AT Perry and the teams leading rusher Justice Ellison will also be playing in this contest.

On the other side of the ball, Missouri will be a little short handed as they will be without leading receiver Dominic Lovett, who has over double the amount of yards as the next leading pass catcher. Starting hybrid safety Martez Manuel, and two of their leading pass rushers will also be missing this game. Missouri left it all on the field in their final game against Arkansas just to get to this point so you know they will have some passion on the field, but these missing pieces just could be the difference.

On paper, these teams match up fairly well as Wake has a slightly better record but Missouri plays a tougher schedule. It is no surprise that the line is so tight as I would expect a close battle but I would not bet against Sam Hartman in the final five minutes of the game to lead his team to a game winning drive.

— Matt Gannon

One of the interesting things with this game is that neither offense is a juggernaut. This game is used to seeing at least one dynamic offense. In 2019, we saw a tremendous game with BYU and Hawaii throwing offensive haymakers with **Cole McDonald **out dueling **Zach Wilson **in an extremely fun game. If the Blue Raiders come out firing like they did when they went down to Coral Gables and had three touchdowns of 60+ yards, this could be a really fun game.

The catch is that the Aztecs are a team that is historically great on defense and while this unit isn’t as good as others have been in the past, they are still really solid throughout. They will be the best unit on the field, which could play a big factor, but it will come down to dual-threat quarterback **Jalen Madden **getting the paltry Aztecs offense to move the ball, something that has proven to be a real struggle at times.

This game is about whether you want to take the best unit with the Aztecs or the more balanced team which I am doing with the Blue Raiders.

— Tyler Forness

If there is any bowl I would want to participate it would be the Bahamas Bowl, but the Hawai’i Bowl would be a very close second. Middle Tennessee will have participated in both over the last two years. If that isn’t a recruiting pitch to future Blue Raider recruits I don't know what is. This is much more than a vacation for Middle Tennessee as they are winners of four out of their last five games. Honestly, the Blue Raiders are exceptional at only thing, causing turnovers on defense. They rank 5th in the nation in turnovers per game (2.1) and 10th in turnover differential (+9). This is something that the Blue Raiders take pride in, and have practiced religiously over the last two seasons. It has paid off huge dividends. Middle Tennessee is a decent passing team as well as they are ranked 31st in the country in PASS YPG (267.2).

On the other side, San Diego State has come alive as** Jalen Mayden** has stepped up at QB, and become a spark plug, helping this team win five of their last seven games. Mayden is a dual-threat QB who has made this offense a bit more dynamic since taking over as the starter. This game will ultimately come down to whether Mayden can move the ball down the field through the air as Middle Tennessee is one of the worst pass defenses in the country (291.3). If they can do that, and win the turnover battle, then the Aztecs have a great shot to win this game and cover the spread.

— Josh Chevalier

Seeing New Mexico State join UConn as a bowl eligible team warms my heart. Jerry Kill has done a tremendous job with this Aggies team, including a 38-point route of Liberty to get to bowl eligibility. Kill has the defense rocking and rolling with their strength being limiting explosive plays. The interesting dichotomy of this game is that Bowling Green’s one real strength is creating explosive plays. It helped them win a few games, including beating MAC champion Toledo in the snow 42-35.

This should be a fun game, but Bowling Green looks outmatched on both sides of the football. Plus, they just don’t stack up well against a better Aggies team. Jerry Kill will take advantage and bring the Aggies their first winning season in ages.

— Tyler Forness

New Mexico State experienced a sudden revival under first year head coach Jerry Kill. While a 6-6 record may not seem like much to most programs, it was the Aggies’ winningest season since 2017. A win in the Quick Lane Bowl would mark just their second winning season since 2022 — think this game means a lot to this program?

The health of quarterback Diego Pavia is a question mark as his status is in doubt for the bowl game as of the time of this writing. That being said, the strength of this team is in a defense that allowed just 24.3 PPG while ranking 52nd in EPA per play. Bowling Green was a fun team to follow this season, but they just aren’t very good. They thrive offensively off creating big plays (38th in Explosiveness), but those will be hard to come by against an Aggies defense that specializes in eliminating those opportunities, ranking 11th in Explosiveness. New Mexico State had a positive yards per play differential (5.7 offensively, 4.9 defensively) and finished on a roll, winning five of its last six games. Bowling Green, meanwhile, had a negative differential (5.0 yards per play offensively, 5.8 defensively) and lost two of its last three games despite being in the MAC title race.

— JD Yonke

Montgomery, AL is home to one of the most underrated bowl games of the season as Georgia Southern takes on Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl. Seeing the Eagles as bowl eligible in the first season with **Clay Helton **at the helm. The transition to the air raid has been much easier than anticipated as the Eagles quarterback **Kyle Vantrease **has led a dynamic passing attack that is one of the most explosive in the nation at 327 yards per game. The Eagles have scored less than 30 points only four times this season and could become an issue for a Bulls defense that is really efficient but lacks explosiveness.

The Bulls have been a very hot and cold team this year. Their first 11 games were a five-game win streak sandwiched in between two three-game losing streaks. They won their final game against Akron by a single point to become bowl eligible. The offense does not have a real advantage against the Eagles defense and that will spell disaster for the Bulls.

— Tyler Forness

Buffalo Bulls travel to the deep south to take on the Georgia Southern Eagles at the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. The Eagles are led by first-year HC, and former USC HC, Clay Helton as he took on the unenviable task of trying to transition the traditional option offense to full on air raid in 2022. The last HC who tried to do that was Tyson Summers in 2016. Let’s just say it didn’t start or end well as Summers was fired midway through his second year in 2017. However, Helton got off to a much better start to his transition as former Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease led Georgia Southern to the fourth-best passing attack in the country (327.4). On the year, Vantrease completed 342 of 558 passes for 3,896 yards and 25 TDs. The only downside was that Vantrease also threw 15 INTs. While the passing attack was excellent, the Eagles defense was one of the worst in the country ranking 129th in total yards (498.6) and 112th in points allowed (32.3).

While Georgia Southern was excellent offensively and horrible defensively, Buffalo was simply average to below average at everything. They ranked 77th in total yards both on offense and defense. Like Georgia Southern, Buffalo is coming into this bowl having lost 3 of 4 games while also going 0-4 against the spread. If Ron Cook Jr. and Al-Jay Henderson can return to full strength, then Buffalo might have a shot in this game.

For now, my money is on Georgia Southern winning this game and covering the spread.

— Josh Chevalier

The First Responder Bowl is a battle of two teams that honestly underperformed this season in the Memphis Tigers and Utah State Aggies. Head coach Ryan Silverfield has struggled over the last few seasons and this season is no different. The Tigers’ second-order wins are over a win higher at 7.2, as they have lost three of their six games by a total of six points. Quarterback **Seth Henigan **has not taken the step that they had hoped he would take this season and the loss of **Calvin Austin **to the NFL draft has really hurt them.

The Aggies are on their third-string quarterback in **Cooper Legas **and they have played well with him under center. This team isn’t the same as the Mountain West championship squad from last year but they are able to play good football.

The touchdown spread is too much for me. These teams are relatively balanced and with Memphis having played in those close games, I think they get the win but don’t cover the spread.

— Tyler Forness

The second battle of .500 teams to start the day after Christmas. These two teams match up fairly well on paper and have both had their ups and downs. Besides a few injuries, what you have seen on the field is what you will get in the bowl game. Utah State has had QB issues all season but preseason 3rd string Cooper Legas has done a good enough job playing his role and leading the team in passing. The difference maker is Calvin Tyler Jr. Utah State running back who will be the best player on the field. He is a sure NFL prospect but it looks like he is going to suit up and play his final college game in his home state.

Memphis has played a lot of close games this season and that is what I am expecting here. Look for this game to be tight throughout but Memphis to take it home in the end, I will buy the TD and the hook with the Aggies.

— Matt Gannon

This game could have been a lot of fun isf the Chanticleers had quarterback **Grayson McCall **playing, but he decided to enter the transfer portal after head coach **Jamey Chadwell **left for Liberty just a couple of weeks ago. The Chanticleers have been rough at best without McCall and not having him here against a really solid Pirates team will spell disaster.

East Carolina is led by quarterback Holton Ahlers who feels like he’s been on campus for 20 years. He isn’t the most dynamic quarterback but he makes great decisions and moves the offense with ease. He won’t have star tight end **Ryan Jones **who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft but with **Keaton Mitchell **in the backfield and **C.J. Johnson **on the outside, the Pirates should have themselves an easy game.

— Tyler Forness

Coastal Carolina had a terrific run, but it’s over. The Chanticleers came out of nowhere to take the Sun Belt by storm, accumulating a 31-6 record across the last three seasons in a terrific display of alternative-style football led by a modified option offense. The problem with too much success at the Power 5 level is that the vultures begin to circle. Head coach **Jamey Chadwell **was poached by the Liberty Flames after Hugh Freeze departed for the SEC. While **Grayson McCall **has entered his name into the transfer portal, he will be pissing teal one last time after stating that he will play in the Birmingham Bowl regardless. He’s set a new bar for efficiency in the college football world with his unparalleled play these last three seasons, and he’ll be one of the top transfer portal targets in the country in this cycle.

The issue is that McCall hasn’t been healthy for much of the season, and he clearly was still hobbled in the Sun Belt Championship game — a blowout loss to Troy. With Chadwell’s mind elsewhere and health concerns at quarterback, the Chanticleers struggled mightily to end the year, losing by a combined score of 92 to 33 in their last two games. They have one of the worst defenses of any bowl team, ranking a ghastly 127th in EPA per play, 100th in Success Rate, and 125th in Explosiveness. East Carolina quarterback Holton Ahlers deserves a strong showing to end his protracted career, and he should find that here in a good matchup. Coastal Carolina’s descent may be as swift and precipitous as the rise was not long ago.

— JD Yonke

The Guaranteed Rate Bowl feels like it should be renamed the Opt Out Bowl, as both teams are missing plenty of players, including both quarterbacks as **Graham Mertz **and **Spencer Sanders **have both entered the transfer portal. The Cowboys are used to playing without Sanders, as they have done so multiple times this season. Looking at the opt outs for both sides, the losses for the Badgers are significantly more than the Cowboys and that will be the difference, as missing Keeanu Benton will help the Cowboys rushing attack massively.

One thing to watch for is Wisconsin running back Braelon Allen, as rumors have been swirling long before **Luke Fickell **and **Phil Longo **came to Madison as the new leadership for the Badgers. Don’t be surprised if he opts out late and without both him and Isaac Guerendo, the Badgers offense would be in a really bad way.

— Tyler Forness

Where do we start with this one! As Tyler said above, this game has the most significant opt outs we have seen thus far. If you have followed my work this season, you know how high I have been on Oklahoma State this season and that was looking amazing to start. They were 6-1 and the only loss was an OT game to playoff team TCU… a game they blew late! Enough about the past because both of these teams will look completely different than they have all year. Wisco and OK State will both be without their leading passers and rushers. Defensively, they will both be without key pieces as well.

So what do we make of all this? Clearly, Oklahoma State was the better team this season and both of these teams will be down a significant majority of production. Do I think Wisconsin’s backups are willing to be 3.5 point favorites against OK States backups… No. Also, Wisconsin will be without their HC as Luke Fickell is in line to take over those duties next year and OK State HC Mike Gundy has a great bowl game resume.

— Matt Gannon

The Golden Knights of UCF will go as far as quarterback **John Rhys Plumlee **will take them. He was limited towards the end with a hamstring injury and that limited mobility ended up dooming them in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane. He wins with his running ability and when that is somewhat taken away, he doesn’t have the arm talent to overcome it. It doesn’t help that his top weapon Ryan O’Keefe has entered the portal and his backup **Mikey Keene **has already committed to Fresno State. With Plumlee having time to get healed, he should be okay.

The better team on the field is the Blue Devils. Hats off to head coach **Mike Elko **who led the Blue Devils to eight wins this season with an aggressive defense and an offense that thrives on explosive plays. Their four losses this season came by a combined 16 points and they enter the Military Bowl as the better team. Elko jumpstarts the 2023 season with a win on Wednesday.

– Tyler Forness

Mike Elko deserves some hipsterish Coach of the Year nominations. Truly, his first season in Durham was a resounding success. Elko led an instant program revival that led to an 8-4 record, and a win in the Military Bowl would result in the program’s best record since 2014. The Blue Devils are sound on both sides of the ball, but the star of the show has been quarterback Riley Leonard, who amassed 2,794 yards and 20 touchdowns passing to pair with just six interceptions while adding 636 yards and 11 scores on the ground.

UCF was one of the better teams in the American this season, but they’ve been ravished by both injuries and the trasnfer portal. Star dual-threat quarterback** John Rhys Plumlee** was severely limited by a hamstring injury in the championship game and while the time off may allow him to heal, the rest of the roster around him has been left dangerously thin. Leading receiver Ryan O’Keefe hit the portal along with starting linebacker** Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste** and starting corner Davonte Brown. Duke has been riding high this season, will be closer to full strength, and is arguably the better team anyway.

– JD Yonke

This game should be known as the game that Missouri bailed on and chose to lose to Wake Forest instead. We could have had Missouri take on Kansas but they had no interest in losing to the Jayhawks. They enter this game firing on all cyllinders with head coach **Lance Leipold **having this squad believing in themselves and playing good football. **Jalon Daniels **is healthy and the multiple style triple option attack that they have the ability to be very multiple.

The Razorbacks have quite a few opt outs which will massively impact the game. Wide receiver Jadon Haselwood, center Ricky Stromberg and linebacker Drew Sanders all chose to not play in the game and that could end up being a problem against Kansas. **K.J. Jefferson **and Raheim Sanders are enough to carry the team to a victory, but neither defense can stop their opponents. With the amount of opt outs for the Razorbacks, ride the Jayhawks and smash the over as they should easily surpass it.

— Tyler Forness

Arkansas and Kansas faceoff in the Autozone Liberty Bowl in Memphis in a potential shootout if the weather cooperates. These are two teams with excellent rushing attacks paired with defenses who struggle to stop the run. The Arkansas offense is led by two powerful runners in QB KJ Jefferson and RB Raheim Sanders, who ran for 1,426 yards and 10 TDs on the year. In fact, the Razorbacks were a top 10 rushing team in the entire country averaging 224.9 YPG. The Kansas defense is ranked 115th in rushing (193.8) and 120th in points allowed (33.8). Arkansas should be able to impose their will versus this Kansas defense.

The Kansas offense is no slouch themselves on the ground. HC **Lance Leipold **has implemented his style of offense as the Jayhawks average 194.0 YPG on the ground led by QB Jalon Daniels and RB Devin Neal. The Arkansas defense has struggled all year to stop opposing rushing attacks allowing 180.3 YPG. Kansas lost six of their last seven games. However, five of those games were played without Daniels. Before his injury, the Jayhawks were 5-0. If Daniels is fully healthy, then Kansas might be able to pull off the upset.

At this point, I simply trust what I have seen from KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders to win this game and cover the spread.

— Josh Chevalier

One of the best matchups of bowl season used to be the Holiday Bowl when it was the Big 12 versus the Pac 12. The ACC replaced the Big 12 here but it’s still one of the premier non-New Years Six bowl games. Some of the star power has been minimized with both North Carolina’s **Josh Downs **and Oregon’s **Christian Gonzalez **opting out and declaring for the NFL draft, but the main matchup to watch will be the quarterbacks.

**Drake Maye **and **Bo Nix **have both played excellent football to the point that both should be top candidates for the Heisman Trophy at one point during the season. Whoever plays better will likely be the winner of this game and I think that will be the Ducks, especially with **Bucky Irving **in the backfield. Maye will keep things interesting and cover the spread but won’t pull out the win.

— Tyler Forness

Power 5 matchup here in San Diego. This would be a very intriguing matchup if we saw that these two were matched up in a bowl game pre season. We may not have thought it would be the Holiday Bowl but here we are. These two teams are a combined 1-5 in their final 3 contests of the season so neither of them are exactly lighting the world on fire. I was looking forward to the **Josh Downs **(WR-UNC) v **Christian Gonzales *(CB-Oregon) matchup but both have opted out to move on with their career’s. Speaking of secondaries… damn near the entire UNC secondary will be out of this game which is massive to say the least. UNC does not have a great defense by any means so look for Bo Nix to get what he wants in this contest. On the other side of the ball, we will see UNC QB and 2023 Heisman candidate* Drake Maye** to sling it around. He was rumored to be transferring but has decided to return to Chapel Hill. Maye is UNC’s do it all guy as he leads the team in not only passing, but rushing as well. This will be one of the better defense’s UNC will face all season. Oregon will be able to score drive after drive so it will come down to UNC being able to keep pace. Although the 14.5 seems like a tasty line on a high powered team, I think Oregon will come up with enough stops to win and cover this line. The loss of Josh Downs is huge so I will be siding with the Ducks, the backdoor is a bit scary I will admit that.

— Matt Gannon

This matchup is one that includes diverse offenses as the RPO attack of Ole Miss takes on the **Zach Kittley **Air Raid attack. This matchup looks to be a fun one but will the Rebels be able to recapture their early season success? After starting out 8-1, they lost their last three games, including a 42-27 loss to Arkansas that was 42-6 going into the fourth quarter. When the Rebels have gotten behind this season, quarterback **Jaxson Dart **doesn’t have the arm and vision to make things happen.

For the Red Raiders, they have been dealing with the quarterback gauntlet. All season, they have rotated between three quarterbacks Tyler Shough, **Behren Morton, **and Donovan Smith. Unfortunately, Smith entered the transfer portal which leaves them with Shough and Morton. They enter the game with a three-game winning streak and have played some good football, including being number one in pace of play at 84.0 plays per game.

The key here will be the Rebels establishing the running game early and limiting the Red Raiders explosive plays through the air, something the defense is really good at. Give me the Rebels to snap their losing streak.

— Tyler Forness

This line is drawing me toward Texas Tech, so that’s where I’ll be placing my wager for the Texas Bowl. I’ve been on the "Ole Miss is overrated" train all season, so allow me to explain. They’ll pop up initially as the superior team in this matchup because they have a +1.1 yards per play differential (6.4 offensively, 5.3 defensively) while Texas Tech is actually rocking a -0.3 differential (5.5 offensively, 5.8 defensively). A closer inspection reveals this doesn’t hold much weight, however, Ole Miss piled on the stats in early-season routs of lowly Central Arkansas (59-3) and Georgia Tech (42-0) while failing to look impressive from then on out. The opening win against Troy is probably the Rebels’ best win all season.

Ole Miss hails from the mighty SEC, so naturally they’re the better team, right? Not necessarily. The SEC was very watered down this season and it’s hard to tell where the middle ends and the bottom begins. Texas A&M? Arkansas? Kentucky? Auburn? There were down seasons across the board in this conference, which could lead to an overvaluation of mid-tier SEC squads during bowl season. The Big 12 was one of the most competitive conferences around and the Red Raiders are battle tested. Wins over Houston, Texas, and Kansas arguably topple anything Ole Miss has done all season, so I wouldn’t let the yardage differential fool you considering Texas Tech had few breaks in the schedule this season after an easy opener against Murray State.

— JD Yonke

This matchup presents an interesting matchup offensively, as both teams utilize a rushing offense out of the shotgun. The Golden Gophers are much better at it, especially with **Mohamed Ibrahim **and **Trey Potts **manning the backfield. The return for Ibrahim has been nothing short of impressive. This season, he rushed for 100 yards or more in his first 11 games of the season and rushed for 70 in the season finale. He is the engine that runs the Gophers offense. Redshirt freshman **Athan Kaliakmanis **will be in line to start this game if redshirt senior Tanner Morgan isn’t cleared in time

A huge chunk of the Syracuse offense won’t be playing in this game, as star running back **Sean Tucker **opted out to pursue the NFL draft. They still have a (hopefully) healthy **Garrett Shrader **and **Oronde Gadsden Jr. **will be the catalyst to the offense. Unfortunately, they go up against a **Joe Rossi **defense that is one of the best in the nation. The Golden Gophers will take this game with relative ease.

— Tyler Forness

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will take on the Syracuse Orange in Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium. This game would have been a fun one had both teams been at full strength. However, Syracuse will be without both coordinators, star RB** Sean Tucker, and several key defensive players in this matchup. The Orange already had a tough out in stopping this tough, physical 11th-ranked rushing attack (218.4) of the Golden Gophers. Now it seems near impossible for them to slow down their opponent or score points on a defense ranked 5th overall in total yards (279.5) with new OC Jason Beck** calling plays for the first time.

**Mo Ibrahim **had nothing short of a miraculous comeback from a torn achilles this offseason to carry the ball 304 times for 1,594 yards and 19 TDs. He is the heart and soul of this team so I expect Minnesota to feed him 25-30 carries as they look to end his career and their season on a high note. I expect the Golden Gophers to win this game convincingly and cover the spread.

— Josh Chevalier

Anyone remember the Cotton Bowl after the 2020 season when Oklahoma slaughtered the Florida Gators 55-20? This game is setting up to be just that but the Sooners are on the wrong side of it. The list of opt outs for the Sooners is long but the biggest miss will be **Eric Gray **who was basically the engine that made the offense run. **Dillon Gabriel **is a quarterback that has his most success with running an offense with heavy structure and a solid running game behind him. He won’t have that here.

For the Seminoles, hats off to Mike Norvell. After losing Travis Hunter on signing day sparked the legendary Twitter spaces where they wanted him fired, he led the Seminoles to a 9-3 record and quarterback Jordan Travis has been the catalyst for their success. 2023 looks like it could be a tremendous year with their success in the transfer portal, but they are hands down the better team and will steamroll the Sooners.

— Tyler Forness

Florida State and Oklahoma being matched up in the Cheez-It Bowl is legitimately hilarious but it is most definitely a super fun matchup. When this season started, you would not expect the Noles to be near double digit favorites against the Sooners in the bowl game but that is how the cookie crumbles. One side has a few blatant pieces missing for this game and the other side will be near full strength.

Oklahoma will have virtually no run game with leading rusher and one of the nations best RB’s Eric Gray opting out. Combine that with their two starting tackles opting out as well and it could be a long day for QB Dillon Gabirel who will have to make plays happen himself.

Florida State finished the season winning 5 straight and have a lot of momentum heading into bowl season and next fall as well with QB Jordan Travis announcing he will return.

I will not be shocked if the Sooners hop out to an early lead as they have the ability to strike quick but the fact that they are so one-dimensional offensively and Florida State being the stronger team, I will be backing the Noles to win and cover here.

— Matt Gannon

This game is loaded with intrigue and a lot of fun. The Longhorns were consistently a top 5-7 team per SP+ all season but couldn’t quite get over the proverbial hump. A lot of that was centered around the quarterback position. Despite all the talent, **Quinn Ewers **struggled with consistency. The wow factor is definitely there, but he hasn’t been consistent in the slightest. It won’t help that the top two running backs **Bijan Robinson **and Roschon Johnson opted out to prepare for the NFL draft so Ewers will need to carry the team with receivers **Xavier Worthy **and Jordan Whittington.

The Huskies got a gift with starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returning to school next season after leading the Huskies to the most-prolific passing offense in the country. **Kalen DeBoer **has made this offense a juggernaut after a disastrous tenure under Jimmy Lake. They played well against the best teams and, if they didn’t fall to an Arizona State team that was in flux, they would have had a real chance to make the playoff.

The matchup is going to be a high flying one but I just don’t trust Ewers one bit to be consistent in throwing the football. Give me Washington to win by at least two scores.

— Tyler Forness

The Texas Longhorns travel down I-35 South 80 miles to San Antonio to face the Washington Huskies in the Valero Alamo Bowl in the Alamodome. I personally think this could be one of the better bowls with a game total of 67.5 and two offenses that can score points in bunches. Beloved Texas RBs, Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, have already announced their intention to sit out the bowl game. While these are big losses, many Longhorn fans are excited to see what** Jonathon Brooks** can do with more touches. Brooks averaged 7.5 YPC on 24 rushes for 179 yards including 5.79 YCO/A (yards after contact per attempt). To put that 5.79 YCO/A in perspective, Brooks ranks 2nd among all RBs with at least 20 rushing attempts in that category. YCO/A is a really good predictive statistic to project how good a RB can be. Brooks also will be motivated to ball out, because this is his first audition for the RB1 role in 2023 with uber talented true freshman RB **Cedric Baxter *coming in the spring and 2022 blue chip recruit* Jaydon Blue** vying for more carries. Ultimately, whether the Longhorns will be able to win this game or not will fall on QB Quinn Ewers’ shoulders. There is positive buzz coming out of bowl practices that Ewers has used this time to clean up his footwork and improve his accuracy. He will need to have a big showing to quiet the fans and pundits who think 2023 QB Arch Manning should start right away.

On the other side, the Washington Huskies have everyone playing, including star QB Michael Penix Jr., who will be playing in his first ever bowl game. The Huskies’ offense ranked 2nd in total yards (521.7) and 1st in passing (376.7) in the entire country while the Longhorns ranked 88th in passing defense (239.0). There are lots of fun and appealing storylines in this game, but ultimately I think Washington is the better team at this point considering the opt outs for Texas. I expect the Huskies to not only cover the spread, but to win this game outright as well.

— Josh Chevalier

This game is setting up to be a real sicko game, as there aren’t many great players in this game. Maryland quarterback **Taulia Tagovailoa **will play, but not having any of his top three receivers in **Rakim Jarrett, Dontay Demus Jr., **and **Jacob Copeland **will be an issue. The offense is much better than that of the Wolfpack, but their effectiveness will be limited without the top three receivers.

For the Wolfpack, they finished an impressive 8-4 starting multiple quarterbacks after **Devin Leary **injured his pectoral muscle. The offense started struggling even more as they entered the quarterback gauntlet. Head coach Dave Doeren did his best coaching this season with a very porous offense but a great defense.

This game features two teams that honestly underperformed this season and it could be a really ugly game with NC State having a great defense and atrocious offense. Go with the best unit on the field and that is the Wolfpack.

-Tyler Fornes

Both teams will enter the Duke’s Mayo Bowl severely short-handed. While Maryland is expected to have quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa active, he’ll be without three of his top receivers after **Rakim Jarrett, Dontay Demus, *and* Jacob Copeland** all declared for the NFL Draft. NC State will likely be on its fourth-string quarterback as **Devin Leary **is both injured and in the portal, freshman breakout MJ Morris is injured, and third string Jack Chambers was woefully ineffective when given a chance — likely leaving **Ben Finley **(6.3 YPA on 75 attempts) as the guy.

This was a disappointing season for NC State, so I have to question the team’s motivation for this spot. Head coach Dave Doeren’s name has been brought up more for coaching searches than it has been for piloting this program, and the Wolfpack’s 8-4 record can be considered a disappointment given the preseason hype for this veteran, experienced, talented team. Maryland is the better team on paper, with the better offense (54th in EPA per play to NC State’s 91st) and even, statistically at least, the better defense (28th in EPA per play to NC State’s 30th). The Terps had a +0.7 yards per play differential compared to the Wolfpack’s -0.2. While the loss of three receivers to the NFL hurts, this roster still has a lot of talent and none of those receivers eclipsed 475 yards this season, so how much will they really be missed?

— JD Yonke

Another bowl game, another start for backup quarterback **Nick Patti **as he get the start for a departed Kedon Slovis. The Panthers will have **Phil Jurkovec **starting next season as he committed to Pitt in the transfer portal. While he isn’t a world beater, Patti will give the Panthers a level of steadiness and professionalism under center. The offense will be missing stud running back **Israel Abanikanda **who was responsible for most of the success that the Panthers offense had this season.

The Bruins come into this game playing some really good football. **Dorian Thompson-Robinson **has played his best football this season. His dynamic playmaking ability has always been there, but he didn’t quite have the accuracy or composure in the pocket to be a great quarterback. He has make himself some money as a now likely draft pick. Running back **Zach Charbonnet **has a chance to have a huge game against a Pitt defense that allows a lot of explosive plays on the ground. Watch for UCLA to take advantage of an average Pitt team.

— Tyler Forness

With starting quarterback Kedon Slovis headed to BYU after hitting the portal, backup **Nick Patti **will be tabbed with effectively running this Panthers offense. Although no world-beater, Patti has been in the program for five seasons, which has to count for something. He sat behind Kenny Pickett for four years and then Slovis this season and now gets a chance to lead an upset against a moribund UCLA defense that ranks 106th in EPA per play and 120th in Success Rate. Still, Patti will be playing without star running back Israel Abanikanda and two starting offensive linemen. The defense is in even worse shape without its four leaders in tackles for loss.

The Pac-12 wasn’t a bad conference this season, but they’re on my list of conferences that may be overrated heading into bowl season. Nearly the entire conference struggled to play defense, and that will hurt them in bowl games — perhaps even against back-up quarterbacks! After all, this Bruins team was so good that they actually lost 34-28 to Arizona in the third-to-last game of the season. UCLA has a dangerous offense led by dual-threat Dorian Thompson-Robinson and star running back Zach Chabonnet, who are expected to play as of the time of this writing but workload may be a question mark. Pitt is too short handed for me to ignore in this spot, so give me the Bruins.

— JD Yonke

It hasn’t happened often this season where **Spencer Rattler **has been the best quarterback on the field but he will be on Friday when the Gamecocks take on the Fighting Irish. He will be going into the game with a somewhat depleted team as offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield and tight ends **Austin Stogner **and **Jaheim Bell. **They have already shown struggles in passing the ball this season and don’t have themselves a great matchup with the Fighting Irish having one of the best pass defenses in the nation.

The Fighting Irish potentially will get starting quarterback **Tyler Buchner **back from a broken collar bone that he suffered early in the season. It’s perfect timing as they lost **Drew Pyne **to the transfer portal as he committed to Arizona State. **Michael Mayer **and **Isaiah Foskey **will both be missing the game as they opted out for the NFL draft. With South Carolina’s porous run defense, expect **Audric Estime **and **Logan Diggs **to run right through the Gamecocks and get the win.

— Tyler Forness

The South Carolina Gamecocks look to ride their hot streak to end the season into their matchup with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville. The Gamecocks were one of the hottest teams to end the year going 7-2 in their last 9 games with victories against rival Clemson and Tennessee to end the year. They were double-digit underdogs in both of those games.

Unfortunately, a lot has changed since the season concluded three weeks ago. South Carolina has lost its OC Marcus Satterfield to Nebraska and its top two offensive weapons, Jaheim Bell and Marshawn Lloyd, to the transfer portal. Luckily, the strength of the offense lies in its passing game led by two transfers, former Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler and former JMU WR Antwane Wells Jr. Unfortunately, Notre Dame has one of the top pass defenses in the nation, allowing only 190.6 YPG.

Offensively, the Fighting Irish will miss their QB1 Drew Pyne and stud TE Michael Mayer. However, Tyler Buchner, the QB1 to begin the year, has been practicing in preparation for the bowl game. Also, the strength of this team offensively is the run game led by Audric Estime and** Logan Diggs**. The Gamecocks have struggled to stop the run all year as they rank 113th in rush defense (192.8). Despite the bowl opt outs, I expect Notre Dame to win this game and cover the spread.

— Josh Chevalier

This game is not going to be a barnburner. The Bobcats lost star quarterback **Kurtis Rourke **a month ago to a torn ACL and meniscus, which was the reason that they lost the MAC Championship Game against the Toledo Rockets. They don’t have an offense that can put up points or a defense that can stop teams regularly.

The Cowboys will have to rely on head coach Craig Bohl and his excellent bowl record because the offense is decimated. They are missing their top two quarterbacks along with their top three running backs, including Titus Swen arguably the best player on the roster. Bohl’s expertise is one that will end up being

*— *Tyler Forness

Wyoming is a team that loves to run the football. It should be considered a red flag, then, that the Cowboys will be without their top four running backs for the Arizona Bowl. Craig Bohl is an old school football coach who does things his way or be damned, and that’s caused a mass exodus via the transfer portal given the clashes with the younger generation. Wyoming has fielded winning teams repeatedly for what seems like a while now, but this program feels like it may be at a crossroads given the ever-evolving landscape of college football.

Ohio coaching legend Frank Solich abruptly retired prior to the 2021 season due to health reasons, and the Bobcats proceeded to post their first losing season since 2008. Coincidence? Of course not. They responded well in 2022 with a 9-4 record and surprise appearance in the MAC Championship game, and given that the program is now in the hands of Solich’s former offensive coordinator Tim Albin, the team resembles its old self. The loss of quarterback Kurtis Rourke is huge in this matchup, but Ohio still has the much better offense (47th in EPA per play compared to Wyoming’s 105th ranking). The Bobcats are stout along the defensive front, ranking 26th in line yards and 12th in stuff rate, so I like their chances to perform well defensively in this spot against a bad, shorthanded Wyoming offense. Give me Ohio.

— JD Yonke

The first of the New Year’s Six bowl games is quite an interesting one as the Tennessee Volunteers take on the Clemson Tigers. Neither team will be starting their opening day starting quarterback, as** Hendon Hooker **tore his ACL and **D.J. Uiagalalei **entered the transfer portal and committed to Oregon State. That leaves the matchup as **Joe Milton **versus *Cade Klubnik*.

The game itself will be fascinating, as some of the top players have opted out with the biggest ones being on the Tennessee offense. Both **Jalin Hyatt **and **Cedric Tillman **both opted out after declaring for the NFL draft. That will put a lot of stress on Milton who is an inaccurate thrower and running back Jabari Small.

The Tigers finally hand the reins over to five-star recruit Cade Klubnik as head coach **Dabo Swinney **finally did what we all thought he should have done in October. He still has struggles throwing the football but the RPO and run game with Will Shipley will make a difference and be the key to this game. Clemson by a touchdown.

— Tyler Forness

I will be in attendance for the "Orangest" Orange Bowl ever. This is an amazing matchup on paper and should be extremely fun. We will see the class of 2022’s number one QB and the future of Clemson football Cole Klubnik get the nod here as **DJ Uiagalelei *struggled this season and has entered the transfer portal. We will see Tennessee’s backup as well,* Joe Milton. **These two teams have some of the better backup QB’s in the entire nation as Milton has plenty of power 5 experience/ success and Klubnik is an amazing talent and potential NFL name. I personally thought we would see some more opt outs in this one but the lists are pleasantly shorter than expected. Tennessee WR *Jaylin Hyatt* and Clemson DE Myles Murphy are going to be the biggest names missed in this contest who will be preparing for the NFL draft.

On paper, these two teams match up fairly well and I think we will see this game come down to the wire. I am envisioning a back and forth effort that comes down to fifth-year kicker, future NFL name to know, B.T. Potter going out in style and handing Clemson the "Orangest" Orange Bowl trophy. Give me the Tigers by a field goal.

— Matt Gannon

This is one of the lowest-ever totals for a bowl game at 31.5 points and it’s warranted. The Hawkeyes offense is atrocious with most of that being a combination of poor quarterback play and an antiquated scheme that was good in 1995. They don’t use space well at all and the running game has been spotty. What the Hawkeyes have going for them is a tremendous defense that is tops in the nation in limiting explosive plays and is tremendous against the pass.

The Wildcats will struggle to do anything on offense due to missing the majority of their offense. Future first-round pick quarterback **Will Levis **opted out, as well as running backs **Chris Rodriguez **and **Kavosiey Smoke **with only Smoke entering the transfer portal. That leaves the ball in the hands of Destin Wade and that could spell disaster for the Wildcats. With a game this anemic on offense, give me the Hawkeyes, as the defense could easily score points.

— Tyler Forness

This one won’t be pretty, as both offenses have been an eyesore all season long. Things will be even worse than normal, too, as both teams will feature backup quarterbacks. Kentucky will be without super-prospect (yes, I say that tongue-in-cheek) Will Levis due to opt-out while Iowa will be down the third-stringer Joey Labas, who has thrown exactly zero career passes. Iowa was already dangerously thin at the receiver position and now will be without two of their most talented skill position players as pass-catchers Arland Bruce IV and Keagan Johnson wisely hit the portal.

Kentucky will also be without its top two running backs in Chris Rodriguez and Kavosiey Smoke. Losing two rushers isn’t usually a death blow because it’s 2022 and "running backs don’t matter", but the backs do a lot of heavy lifting in this offense considering the awful offensive line play (113th in front seven Havoc) and mediocre-at-best quarterback play (19 TDs, 10 INTs for Levis this season). This will be a low-scoring mess of a game between two teams with top-15 scoring defenses and offenses that rank outside the top 100 in scoring. Iowa is a team that thrives in messy situations and I’m inclined to take the points in this low-scoring muck-up.

— JD Yonke

In today’s college football, you don’t often see top-five caliber picks play in a bowl game that isn’t in the College Football Playoff, but that’s what Alabama has with both **Bryce Young **and **Will Anderson **playing before declaring for the NFL draft. They won’t have a lot of help, especially on the offensive side of the football, as multiple offensive linemen and wide receivers have opted out for this game. We don’t know for sure if **Jahmyr Gibbs **will be playing in this game but he hasn’t officially opted out. LSU’s **Kayshon Boutte **just opted out on Wednesday night so it’s something to keep an eye on.

Kansas State has the mentality of their head coach Chris Kleiman: tough and determined. Even though **Adrian Martinez **might be healthy enough to play in this game, expect **Will Howard **to get the start once again. This game will be determined by the rushing game for the Wildcats and how much **Deuce Vaughn **will impact the game. They will keep it competitive but Young has proven he can carry a team by himself. Give me the Crimson Tide to cover.

— Tyler Forness

The Alabama Crimson Tide will compete against the Kansas State Wildcats in the Sugar Bowl at the Caesar Superdome in New Orleans. It’s crazy to think that for one team (Alabama) this is an incredibly disappointing finish to their 2022 season while this is considered a major program accomplishment for the other team (Kansas State). While QB Bryce Young and EDGE Will Anderson will play in this game, Alabama will be without major pieces in their receiving corps and offensive line. We are still not 100 percent certain that RB Jahmyr Gibbs will play either. This has all the ingredients for a major letdown for the Crimson Tide.

On the other side, Kansas State has zero players who are opting out as the team is playing in it’s first New Year’s Six bowl in 10 years. These players are excited and motivated to play in this game after defeating playoff participant TCU in the Big 12 Championship game. Led by RB** Deuce Vaughn** and QB Will Howard, this is a team who has won four straight games and is a tough out for any team, let alone one who carries very little motivation headed into this game. There is also a good chance dynamic dual-threat QB Adrian Martinez is healthy enough to play, giving the Wildcats another option to get creative with their playcalling. Despite all of these positive for Kansas State, it’s hard to imagine them winning this game straight up if Young and Anderson are playing. However, I do think they can cover the spread and give Alabama a run for their money.

— Josh Chevalier

The first playoff game has the Ohio State Buckeyes backing into the College Football Playoff and getting the top team in the nation in the Georgia Bulldogs. Both teams don’t have any major opt outs, as the only one is Buckeyes wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has only played 62 snaps this season.

The Buckeyes offense is one that could give the Georgia defense fits. They have a solid offensive line that is anchored by star left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. and a quarterback that is prepared to play in big games with C.J. Stroud. It’s one thing to be prepared to play in big games, but Stroud has only won one of those and that was the Rose Bowl against Utah. He is 0-2 against Michigan in his career and struggled against Penn State and Notre Dame this season. How will he handle the big stage in Atlanta with the Bulldogs essentially having a quasi-home game?

While it isn’t familiar territory for this group of Buckeyes, it is for the Bulldogs. They won last year’s National Championship and the catalyst of that team was Stetson Bennett IV. He gets a lot of grief from the media and especially draft analysts for not being great but it hasn’t mattered. He leads this offense with efficiency and plays relatively mistake free football.

This game is going to come down to the Ohio State defense. They brought in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State for big games like this and to not get complacent and play relaxed coverage. His aggressive style and lack of outside receivers could be just what the Buckeyes need to spark the upset. The Bulldogs haven’t faced an offense like theirs this season and they could see their secondary struggle against the multitude of weapons. Give me the Buckeyes to make things interesting like they did in 2014.

— Tyler Forness

Simply cannot wait for this one. My preseason number 1 going against the clear cut number 1. The high powered OSU offense led by future NFL QB CJ Stroud head to head with the nations best defense these last two seasons will be a treat to watch. A lot of people are counting out the Bucks but it seems like recency bias to me. They have been the best offense in the nation all season long outside of one game. With over a month to wash that bad taste out of their mouth and prepare for this game, I am sure the offense will be fine.

I am not saying it will be easy as this Georgia defense is at the top for a reason but they have struggled from time to time. Letting teams like Kent State and Missouri put up points against them was a bit surprising as well as allowing 30 to LSU in the SEC Championship. Offensively, Stetson Bennett and the dawgs do not get enough but they are a legitimate bunch and have been all year.

I think the X-Factor here will be the Buckeyes defense. Year after year… Ohio State has NFL talent after NFL talent on the offense with a slight drop off (but still good defense). They would play great all season, controlling the Big Ten with ease while letting their defensive athletes sit in base cover 2 or cover 3 without much strategy. This year we have seen something different with the Ohio State defense and that is because of Jim Knowles. In his first season in Columbus, he has provided a new wrinkle of strategy and twists to an extremely athletic and talented Ohio State defense. Their issue in the past was that they could not just rely on athleticism and talent when playing big SEC schools who were able to match it on the offensive side. Combine what they have with Jim Knowles defensive mind and I really think Ohio State could have Georgia on upset alert.

— Matt Gannon

The more intriguing game of the College Football Playoff is happening in Glendale, Arizona as the improbable Hypnotoad Horned Frogs of TCU meet up with the Michigan Wolverines.

It’s been a special year for the Horned Frogs. Head coach Sonny Dykes took over for Gary Patterson this year and finished 12-1, earning the three seed. They relied on the magic of Heisman-candidate quarterback Max Duggan and he delivered multiple three-score comebacks, along with the comeback of the year against Baylor with multiple weapons not playing in the game. He will have them all at his disposal against the Wolverines with **Quentin Johnston **and Kendre Miller.

The Wolverines have been quite a renaissance under head coach Jim Harbaugh. After teasing a move to the NFL by interviewing for the Minnesota Vikings head coaching job, he came back and casually went 13-0 and winning in the Horseshoe since the beginning of the Jim Tressel era. They won’t have star running back **Blake Corum **due to a knee injury, but the emergence of Donovan Edwards will ease that fact. The key for them will be the defensive line led by Mazi Smith. They will wreak havoc and their talented corners will play good coverage on the back end to give them the win and the cover.

— Tyler Forness

Jim Harbaugh deserves some damn respect. The Wolverines are a perfect 13-0 this season and while they may have faced a relatively easy schedule, they dominated opponents when they should’ve and came through huge in big games — 41-17 win over Penn State, 45-23 win over rival Ohio State, 43-22 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship. Harbaugh has proven to be one of the best coaches in America despite not getting the goodwill of some of his peers, and Michigan was terribly underrated heading into this season. To my eyes, they’ve been the most impressive team in the country this season and should roll to the National Championship.

TCU’s cinderella story was incredibly fun while it lasted, but the show is over. **Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, **and **Quentin Johnston **are three stars, but this team does not have the star-studded roster required to compete with the big boys come playoff time. The Horned Frogs are simply the worst team on both sides of the ball, and they should be overmatched in this battle. Michigan ranks 18th in EPA per play on offense and 4th on defense, while TCU checks in at 21st on offense and 53rd on defense. The Frogs will be outgunned, outcoached, and out of luck.

— JD Yonke