Well, that’s three gruesome weeks in a row now for DFS purposes. It’s not me; it’s them.
Scoring is down in the NFL and offenses are struggling a little, and more players are involved in the production than ever. And it sucks.
I didn’t list many guys at QB, which may have been a good thing, since they all flopped. Whether they were pricey like Josh Allen (QB20), dirt cheap like Jordan Love (QB19) and Tyrod Taylor (QB19), or in between like Joe Burrow (QB23) and Derek Carr (QB18), it was brutal. It’s really not that bad, though. I was basically made to look bad for not listing Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert because most of the top-15 for the week were weird. To that point, Stafford, Tannehill, Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and Carr were all out of the top-15. Brutal.
I didn’t feature many RBs, which was probably also good. Cordarrelle Patterson (RB7) did his thing, but Ezekiel Elliott (RB22) got dinged up, as did Zach Moss (RB50), who left early with a concussion. Damien Harris (RB31) was also concussed. So injuries were the story.
I listed a bunch of WRs, and the results were better, but mixed. Marquise Brown (WR5) and
Cooper Kupp (WR7) were good, and Stefon Diggs (WR18), Justin Jefferson (WR14), Jerry Jeudy (WR21), and Brandin Cooks (WR23) were okay. But Jarvis Landry (WR70), Bryan Edwards (WR99), and Kadarius Toney (WR89) were brutal. In my defense, there were a ton of superstars who didn’t crack the top-30 at WR in Week 9.
The TE position wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t good with mostly cheap options Tyler Conklin (TE15), Dallas Goedert (TE22), Mike Gesicki (TE19), and Albert Okwuegbunam (TE25) not really moving the needle.
Not much I can do but keep firing my shots, so here’s who stands out to me this week based on player, matchup, and cost.
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Justin Herbert (LAC, vs. Min — $8000 DK, $7300 FD) —Oddly enough, he’s the top value on FD but only the 11th-best value on DK. With an expected total of 53, this is a great spot for Herbert. The Vikings have lost their top pass rusher in Danielle Hunter, they won’t have LB Anthony Barr, and they are also down top run-stuffer in DT Michael Pierce. Oh, and they are also down their top DBs with Harrison Smith (COVID) and Patrick Peterson (hamstring, IR) out. Herbert should destroy their weak corners in whatever way they allow him to destroy them. He can get big chunk plays, or he can nickel and dime them to death, Either way, production is coming.
Dak Prescott (Dal, vs. Atl — $6900 DK, $8100 FD) — He’s a top-5 value on both sites. We have a nice expected total of 53.5 points, and I think Matt Ryan will have success against the cover 1 heavy defense that will not have key pass rusher Randy Gregory. Dak was off last week and won’t have LT Tyron Smith, which is a concern. But this is a major bounce-back spot against a Falcons’ defense that’s giving up the fourth-most FPG (21.4) to QBs, and the fourth-most FPG to outside WRs. Dak will also get Michael Gallup back and Ezekiel Elliott is nursing a sore knee.
Carson Wentz (Ind, vs. Jax — $5900 DK, $7500 FD) —The top value on DK, he’s a top-5 value on both sites. CB Xavier Rhodes is out, which should help the Jags on offense, which should in turn help Wentz’ chances. But the Colts look like a team that will throw it no matter what, and Wentz continues to play well on film. The Jags defense showed up last week, but they’re very beatable on the back end and Wentz has accounted for multiple TD passes in six straight games with 20+ FP in four of his last five games.
Teddy Bridgewater (Den, vs. Phi — $5500 DK) — DK only, where he is the #3 value on the board this week. There’s downside behind a depleted OL and the Eagle DL is capable of dominating. But Teddy can also get rid of the ball quickly and nickel and dime them to death. The matchups for Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant are too good to ignore.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
None of note.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Ind, vs. Jax — $8100 DK, $9400 FD) — He’s a top-3 value on both sites, despite his high price tag. He’s basically the new Derrick Henry and if you don’t use him, it could really hurt you in cash games. The Jags are actually tough to run on, but they did give up a high number of RB carries per game, and Taylor averaged 7.1 YPC in this matchup last year with 171 yards a game and 26.6 FPG, which is absurd. Taylor has 19+ FP in six straight with 9 TDs in that span. He’s finally been at a 65% snap share or better in four straight games, so the dum-dum coaches here have finally figured out that he’s a superstar and he commands snaps and the ball.
Austin Eckler (LAC, vs. Min — $7600 DK, $8600 FD) — He’s a top-6 value on both sites. Ekeler came up small for the second time in his last three games last week, but he did see 20+ touches for just the second time this season, and scrubs Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell combined for 24/127 rushing in this matchup last week, and they’re giving up 4.6 YPC to RBs this season. They won’t have key defenders in LB Anthony Barr and their top run-stuffer in DT Michael Pierce, so Eckler’s looking good.
Najee Harris (Pit, at Det — $7900 DK, $9400 FD) — He’s a top-6 option on both sites. He’s off the injury report and the Steelers won’t have Chase Claypool, so we’ll see more 2-TE sets and a lot of Harris, who has 25+ touches in four straight and a TD in five straight. The Lions are giving up the second-most FPG (30.1) to RBs, and Jordan Howard and Boston Scott combined for 117/4 rushing in Detroit’s last game, so, uh, yeah.
James Conner (Ari, vs. Car — $6300 DK, $7000 FD) — Kyler Murray’s status is sketchy leading up to Sunday, but regardless, Conner’s getting 20+ touches with Chase Edmunds out. His OL is a little beat up, but Patriots RBs combined for 33/146/1 rushing and 5/74 receiving against the Panthers last week.
D’Ernest Johnson (Clel, at NE — $4700 DK, $5400 FD) — He’s easily the top values on both sites due to the massive role forthcoming but also his competitiveness and productivity. Johnson stepped into a bell-cow role and produced 22/146/1 rushing and 2/22 receiving on three targets in a Week 7 victory over the Broncos. He’s back in that role this week and the Patriots are giving up the 11th-most rushing yards per game (94.7) and 4.3 YPC to RBs this season. Unless he gets hurt, he’s a mortal lock to hit 13 FP in PPR, that’s for sure, and 15+ are likely.
Mark Ingram (NO, a Ten — $4500 DK, $5500 FD) — I am hardly assuming Ingram will come through in this nasty matchup, but he doesn’t have to do too much to come through. Basically, if he scores, he’ll come through, and we’re looking at 20+ touches.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Dalvin Cook (Min, at LAC — $8000 DK, $8500 FD) — Honestly, this one is sneaky due to Cook’s off-field issues right now, but this is also the type of situation where a guy like Cook could blow up. Cook ran for 100+ yards for the third time in six games last week, and the Chargers are allowing the most rushing yards per game (130.0) and a generous 4.9 YPC to RBs this season. The only chance the Vikings have in this game is to feed Cook 25+ touches, and that’s what they will try to do. 100+ yards and a TD would not be a surprise at all, as RBs are seeing 30+ carries against the Chargers the last four weeks.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans (TB, at Was — $6900 DK, $7400 FD) — He’s a top-2 value on both sites. It looks like Chris Godwin will play, but he’s been dealing with his foot injury since before the bye and Evans is the only healthy receiver coming out of their bye. He’s scored four TDs in his last two games and six TDs in his last four, and Washington is giving up the second-most touchdowns per game (1.4) to WRs. They are also down starting CB Benjamin St-Juste (although we kinda hoped he would play because he’s beatable).
AJ Brown (Ten, vs. NO — $7800 DK, $7600 FD) — He’s a top-12 value on both sites, but the #2 value on FD. Julio Jones has been a lost cause and is now on IR, and I’m not worried about Marshawn Lattimore locking him up if they decide to do that, since Brown is much more physical. Brown was rocking a 42% share last week and has 9+ targets in four straight games with a league-best 37% target share in that span. He’s like Derrick Henry now, only in the passing game. Mike Evans (2/48/1) and D.K. Metcalf (2/96/1) have come through with solid games against Lattimore and company in the last three weeks.
Jerry Jeudy (Den, vs. Phi — $5300 DK, $6200 FD) — He’s the #4 value on both sites. I know CB Avonte Maddox has been solid, but he does have a knee issue, and Jeudy looked incredible last week. Jeudy’s role last week and he ran a route on 78% of Teddy B’s dropbacks and he was back to leading the Broncos in target share (33%). The Eagles’ defense concedes short targets, as we saw last week with Keenan Allen racking 12/104 receiving out of the slot last week. Jeudy is a lot more explosive than Allen, so he could take one to the house.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Mike Williams (LAC, vs. Min — $6600 DK, $6900 FD) — He is very pricey on DK, but a top-6 value on FD. Williams has finished with exactly five targets and two catches in three straight games, which has prompted people to wonder if his knee is a problem. But he practiced fully all last week and he’s not even on the injury report this week, plus our Greg Cosell thought he looked fine on tape last week. The Vikings have given up massive performances to perimeter WRs Marquise Brown (9/116 receiving), CeeDee Lamb (6/112), and Amari Cooper (8/122/1) with Patrick Peterson out of the lineup the last two weeks, and I love Williams to blow up and burn CB Breshad Breeland this week.
Diontae Johnson (Pit, at Det — $6800 DK, $7400 FD) —Johnson is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season with just 5/56 receiving on six targets, but he should be the top passing target with 10+ looks with Chase Claypool (toe) out. The Lions are facing the third-fewest targets per game (16.5) from WRs, but they’re giving up 2.07 FP per target and their secondary has been vulnerable to big plays all year.
Justin Jefferson (Min, vs. LAC— $7700 DK, $7500 FD) — He’s a way better value on FD, where he’s the #3 value for the week. I liked Jefferson to stand out over Adam Thielen last week, and he did. Jefferson caught a 50-yard TD, but he did manage only 2/19 receiving on four targets otherwise, prompting the Vikings OC to talk about more targets for Jefferson. The Chargers are giving up the second-fewest FPG (26.2) to WRs this season, but their secondary is beat up heading into this matchup, and they were beat up last week when DeVonta Smith got them for 5/116/1 receiving last week. CBs Ryan Smith and Michael Davis aren’t going to play, and since they are a zone-based team, it’s a Jefferson game over a Thielen game.
CeeDee Lamb (Dal, — $00 DK, $00 FD) — Lamb was frustrating last week, as he just missed on some big plays deep down the field, but I like Wes Huber’s point about Amari Cooper on top CB AJ Terrell, with the other outside corner, Fabian Moreau, being very beatable down the field. There’s only one ball, but Lamb commands it as his 28 targets in their last three games indicates.
Michael Pittman (Ind, vs. Jax — $6300 DK, $7200 FD) — I don’t think anyone in the fantasy biz was higher on Pittman coming out than I was, and part of my analysis was being around the guy multiple times for interviews. So far he’s been exactly as I’d have hoped. He has scored in three straight games and in four of his last five with 11+ FP in seven of his last eight games with 20+ FP in four of those contests. D.K. Metcalf posted 6/43/2 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, as well. They do spread the ball around, which is a concern here, but Pittman has 21 targets in just their last two and they are giving up over 15 WR receptions per game the last four weeks.
Tight Ends
Ricky Seals-Jones (WFT, vs. TB — $3700 DK, $5300 FD) — A top-8 value on both sites, he’s the #2 value on DK with full PPR and at only $3700. Logan Thomas is not going to play and the Bucs are giving up the second-most catches per game (6.6) to TEs and 6.3 their last four games. I’d be willing to roll with RSJ if I went dirt cheap at TE.
Dawson Knox (Buf, at NYJ — $4500 DK, $5800 FD) — I’m legit wondering if part of Josh Allen’s struggles have been because Knox has been out. He’s basically Allen’s checkdown guy. New York’s defense got ravaged for 45 points and 532 yards last week, and they suffered an even bigger loss with S Marcus Maye going down for the year. That’s huge for Knox, who will face a Jets defense that has given up four TDs to TEs in their last four games.
Darren Waller (LV, — $6300 DK, $00 FD) — Waller is coming off his best game in the season opener, and it should have been a huge performance, but Derek Carr missed him on two end-zone targets. The Chiefs have given up five TDs to TEs since Week 5 and Waller posted a combined 12/136/2 receiving on 14 targets in two games in this matchup last season.
Tyler Conklin (Min, at LAC — $3400 DK, $5300 FD) — He’s the #2 value on DK at his very low price, and top-8 value on both sites. Conklin has seven targets and five catches in each of his last two games, and the Chargers have been quite bad against TEs, giving up the second-highest FP/T in the league to TEs, and the highest EPA per attempt on the season. Over the last four weeks, they have given up 77 yards a game with a 16.2 YPA. The Vikings should eventually be forced to the air in this one. .
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Noah Fant (Den, vs. Phi — $4300 DK, $5700 FD) — Considering their debable against the Chargers TEs last week, I have to showcase Fant this week. Albert Okwuegbunam (knee) is no lock to play, and if he’s out, that’s huge for Fant. Chargers TEs combined for 11/126/2 receiving against the Eagles last week and they currently give up a whopping 9/87/1 per game to TEs the last four weeks. The middle of the field is typically wide open.
Primetime Players
Cooper Kupp (LAR, at SF — $7900 DK, $00 FD) — With Robert Woods out of the mix, it looks like a huge Kupp game forthcoming against a 49ers defense that, per Greg Cosell, was pretty damn brutal last week.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF, vs. LAR — $47000 DK, $5800 FD) — A top-5 value on both sites, he is not yet priced appropriately to account for his ceiling, which is back to being high. I think we’re looking at Jalen Ramsey spending more time on Deebo Samuel, and Aiyuk is just about all the way back with his two highest snap shares (88%, 93%) in their last two games. The Rams are facing the eighth-most targets per game (21.3) at WR, so Aiyuk is looking good.
Travis Kelce (KC, at LV — $6900 DK, $7500 FD) — He’s actually the #2 value on FD, but he’s down the value list on DK. Based on how things are going in KC, Kelce has the better chance to produce over Tyreek Hill. Kelce bounced back last week, in fact, and he destroyed the Raiders for 16/235/2 receiving in two games last season. For good measure, note the Raiders are giving up the third-most FPG (17.1) to the position this season.
