General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
*Note: This week has the most viable captains that I can remember. Despite the fact I listed all the viable captains in this section, I don’t recommend using that many captains in an MME player pool unless you are entering the max 150
Cooper Kupp can’t see many more targets than he is already getting, but the absence of Woods coupled with Odell not being 100% familiar with the offense makes me believe he’ll once again rack up 12-15 targets in this game. He currently has a 33% market share of targets and air yards. He’s also Stafford’s favorite end zone target. It’s tough to fade Kupp all together, even if you don’t captain him.
Matthew Stafford can spread the ball enough that he would make it into the captain slot. I do think that if you roster Stafford as a captain, you’re betting on Kupp not being part of the lineup. Kupp needs a big day to land as the optimal captain, so it’s unlikely Stafford is the optimal captain if Kupp also smashes. The way Stafford lands as the captain is if he throws three touchdowns to the ancillary pieces like Jefferson and Higbee
Darrell Henderson is a direct pivot off a massive Rams passing attack onslaught. Henderson often got sniped by Robert Woods on end arounds and other gadget plays, so I think the absence of Woods helps Henderson a decent bit. He’s a leverage captain as he will be relatively low-rostered compared to some other Rams teammates.
Elijah Mitchell is a homerun hitter. He can really hit a crease, turn up field and be gone, so it makes sense to have some captain exposure to Mitchell. He’s been involved in the passing game during certain game scripts, like last week going 5-43. Mitchell really eats into the rest of his teammates ceiling, so if he’s the optimal captain, I’d default to a 4-2 Rams build.
Deebo Samuel possesses the big play ability to land in the captain spot in any given week, though I think it may be a suboptimal play in this particular contest. At his salary, I think he’s much akin to Tyler Lockett where he either explodes and you need him as the captain, or you completely leave him off your build. He’s extremely volatile. In the games he’s played he’s earned 35% of targets and 33% of air yards. I’ll probably take a captain or bust approach with Deebo
Brandon Aiyuk and Van Jefferson are my favorite cheap captains that allow you to get a bit more even across the board. Aiyuk lit it up last week and it could have been a turning point for his season. He looked athletic, fast, and sure-handed. Jefferson looked like he was doomed with the Beckham signing, but with the injury to Woods, I think he assumes his role and Beckham kicks outside. With Beckham probably not ready for a full time role, I could see this being Jefferson’s best game of the season.
George Kittle is another viable captain as he made his return last week and immediately smashed for 25 DraftKings points. Though there are several viable captains on this slate, I wouldn’t spread myself thin at the 1.5x spot. Lock in on three or four and build around your favorite.
Flex
Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid flex play, but there just aren’t many paths to statue quarterbacks being the optimal captain. They absolutely have to throw 3-4 touchdowns without throwing two to the same player basically. Lock in Jimmy G with any 49ers pass-catching captain .
JaMychal Hasty and Kyle Juscyzk can be used in Jimmy G captain lineups as they may be used at the goal line in some play action misdirection. I would not roster either together or with Eli Mitchelll.
Odell Beckham Jr. will definitely get some looks in this game, but he’s priced up to a point that I don’t love being too overweight on him. He’ll probably have a few designed plays, but his lack of chemistry and Rams’ offensive familiarity caps his ceiling a bit.
Tyler Higbee may see the field a bit more with the Rams’ short-handed at wide receiver. I think he’s a lock in lineups that captain Matthew Stafford. He probably takes away from Henderson’s ceiling because they’ll both need multiple touchdowns to end up as captain.
Ben Skowronek is a really dart throw. He’s a former Northwestern and Notre Dame big bodied receiver. They used ot throw the ball up to him in college and he’d snag it out of the air over a smaller defensive back. That’s easier said than done in the NFL, but he’s worth a flier since a touchdown lands him in the optimal lineup and touchdowns are his specialty
Lineup Starters
Captain: Cooper Kupp
Flex: Matthew Stafford, Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers K
Captain: Matthew Stafford
Flex: Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, George Kittle
Captain: Van Jefferson
Flex: Matthew Stafford, Odell Beckham, Deebo Samuel
Captain: Darrell Henderson
Flex: Van Jefferson, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle
Captain: Elijah Mitchell
Flex: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Ben Skowronek
Captain: Deebo Samuel
Flex: Matthew Stafford, Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee
Captain: George Kittle
Flex: Jimmy Garoppolo, Van Jefferson, Darrell Henderson
