DSTs just can’t get no respect on the weekly waiver wire hot-lists. At least, not as much as they deserve. All you hear about it is Elijah Mitchell and Chuba Hubbard as managers frantically empty their pocketbooks with grand hopes of finding the next 2020 James Robinson or Mike Davis. Meanwhile, DST – the position with the most predictable success – is a bit of a FAAB afterthought. Well, I’m here to change your frame of thinking and advise you set aside a formidable stash in the FAAB account to hire these skilled weekly DST mercenaries for your squad.
The value of popular waiver wire DSTs can be seen by looking at 2020 roster percentage data from ESPN. High-profile waiver adds are identified by tracking ESPN league ownership percentage increase from the prior week. The idea here is that players with larger ownership bumps are more sought after and command higher bids for either single-week streaming or rest of season services. Results are below for each position with a blue FPG trend line as a function of ownership increase, and a horizontal dashed line to showing the average FPG for league-starters at the position.
DST clearly stands out as the most dependable position managers could count on in 2020 for a popular one-week streamer. Not only did they score more points as a function of increased ownership, but DSTs with about 20% or more increase in ownership outperformed the average top-12 started DSTs on a weekly basis (dashed line). No other position comes close to this – not even QB.
So, what’s the secret to successful DST streaming? Nothing you probably don’t already know – but it always helps to see data back up the theory. It’s all about the offenses being faced and less about the DST itself. This follows suit with contemporary NFL analytics research suggesting that defensive success has less to do with their skill and more to with the skill level of the offenses they face.
The chart below tallies teams in which DSTs increased fantasy ownership by at least 5% in 2020 along with the average points scored by DSTs facing them.
There really was nothing like playing “insert DST here” vs “insert New York based team here” in 2020. And if they weren’t available in your league, Drew Lock was more than a suitable alternative to pit a DST against. Managers could count on these teams to remain putrid on offense and allow the DST facing them to score around two points more than the average top-12 DST (7.9 PPG) on a weekly basis. Two points a week might not seem like a lot – but if you were to look at the final results after years end, you might have picked up an extra win or two with that help.
These Aren’t Your Grandfather’s QBs
Meanwhile, the idea that QB is a readily streamable option in public leagues just might be a thing of the past. As indicated by the positional graphs above, single-week QB streaming targets in 2020 were underwhelming to say the least and nowhere near as productive as the average top-12. You were better off drafting a QB than grinding it out on the weekly waivers. The list below sorted by highest percent added shows the top-ten pick-ups of 2020 by weekly ownership increase. Only three performances outperformed the top-12 QB average in 2020 (21.4 PPG).
| Season | QB | Week | PPR | Week % Added |
| 2020 | Taysom Hill | 11 | 24.2 | 78.8 |
| 2020 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 16.0 | 39.0 |
| 2020 | Gardner Minshew | 3 | 9.2 | 36.9 |
| 2020 | Teddy Bridgewater | 5 | 20.8 | 29.3 |
| 2020 | Jared Goff | 10 | 10.5 | 25.5 |
| 2020 | Andy Dalton | 6 | 11.0 | 24.2 |
| 2020 | Jalen Hurts | 15 | 37.8 | 24.1 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert | 7 | 38.5 | 22.6 |
| 2020 | Carson Wentz | 8 | 8.6 | 22.5 |
| 2020 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 21.3 | 22.4 |
It was completely plausible to think 2020 was a fluke year for QB. But so far in 2021, there’s not much reason to believe 2021 will be much different. Top-added QBs from the waiver wire left about five points off the table for fantasy teams regardless of how popular the QB was.
Zero-RB Gambit Gamble
The waiver wire invites much more than just looking for one week stands with guys that strutted their moves the week before. The idea of capturing a mainstay plug for the rest of the season attracts many to allocate serious FAAB over. James Robinson and, to a lesser extent, Mike Davis provided such reward to those willing to dish out the most cash in 2020. But just beware that you can never be too sure who will smash and who will be Devontae Booker, Malcolm Brown, Benny Snell, etc.
2021 DST Plan
It’s been a mixed bag so far for top-desired DSTs in 2021. While the Cardinals brought up the overall average considerably in Week 3, they are the only DST added in 10% of leagues or more to produce above the average top-12 started DSTs.
Cincinnati failed last Thursday night as well, with about a 50% increase. But, then again, it’s still early in the year and we don’t exactly know which teams will be the 2020 New York Jets this year – well, aside from the New York Jets – of course. It might take another couple of weeks to know who the surefire dumpsters of offense will truly be.
With all this said, I advise saving a solid chunk of FAAB to focus on streaming DST in today’s public platform seasonal leagues. How much depends on what managers in your league tend to pay for top DSTs but the data from 2020 point towards DST being the most reliable position when it comes to streaming.
Play smarter, not harder. Let the putrid NFL offenses reveal themselves in earning the disrespect they deserve. Don’t forget about DST on your Tuesday night claims.
