The goal here is to give you everything of note I have for a given week - in a 5-minute read. If I feel strongly about something good or bad, I’ll address it in the notes section.
Washington Football Team (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Players I like more than usual: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Taylor Heinicke, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts
Players I’m neutral on: Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Davis, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic
Players I like less than usual: Curtis Samuel
Longshot Plays: Matt Ryan
Notes: Antonio Gibson is a little banged up, so it might be more passing, and it’s a good matchup overall for Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas, plus Taylor Heinicke. It’s hard to say J.D. McKissic is a good play since he came up small with a perfect game script last week.
I do think the Falcons can have a nice game here, but that’s assuming TFT’s defense stays lame, as they have been. I’d guess they will get Matt Ryan this week, but their rush and secondary has been bad enough that I’m optimistic on Calvin Ridley. TFT is also down CB Benjamin St-Juste, who was starting. The matchup is also quite good for Kyle Pitts, as we saw athletic TE Dawson Knox post 4/49/1 in this matchup last week. It’s not a great matchup for Cordarrelle Patterson on the ground, but he posted season-highs in touches (13), scrimmage yards (102), and snap share (42%) last week, so he’s still desirable and cheap in DFS.
Houston Texans (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Players I like more than usual: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Zack Moss
Players I’m neutral on: Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis, Cole Beasley
Players I like less than usual: Brandin Cooks, Davis Mills, Texans RBs
Longshot Plays: Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary. Anthony Miller
Notes: It’s a start-’em-if-you-got-’em game for the Bills, especially with Josh Allen playing so well last week. Stefon Diggs should crush this zone defense like DJ Moore did last week, and it’s a terrific matchup for TE Dawson Knox, if you’re looking for a TE streamer. His route run percentage has been climbing every week (45%<77%<80%), so he may be coming on and may be a viable TE1 soon. It’s certainly a good beatable matchup for all receivers, and especially for their ground game.
As you know, there’s really only one good fantasy pick on the Texans, but Brandin Cooks may not be much of one this week, since he should see a lot of top corner Tre’Davious White (or the underrated Levi Wallace). Terry McLaurin (4/62 receiving) and Diontae Johnson (5/36/1) have each struggled in this matchup, and the Bills are playing very well overall and rushing the passer. I would not want to try anyone else out on this team, but Anthony Miller surprised with 4/20/1 6 targets with 64% of the snaps last week. Of course, the Bills have been stingy against slot receivers.
Detroit Lions (0-3) at Chicago Bears (1-2)
Players I like more than usual: D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Allen Robinson
Players I’m neutral on: T.J. Hockenson, Jamaal Williams, Jared Goff, Quintez Cephus
Players I like less than usual:
Longshot Plays: Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet
Notes: It’ll be Justin Fields for the Bears, and the matchup, as you know, is very good. It’s really hard to be optimistic after last week’s debacle, but everyone in Chicago has done better when OC Bill Lazor calls plays, which he is expected to do this week. There is an increase in their PPG average of 18.2 with Nagy from 2020-2021 to Lazor, who led them to 27.7 PPG in 2020. At the very least, David Montgomery is more than safe to start and is downright appealing. He had 21 carries and 111/2 scrimmage in this matchup in Week 13 last season. I’m still starting Allen Robinson as, at worst, a WR3, unless I’m loaded. If desperate, it’s a solid spot for Cole Kmet, and Lazor may actually be able to, you know, use him. Darnell Mooney isn’t 100%, which makes him even riskier, but it’s a very beatable matchup, at least.
TJ Hockenson had two good games against the Bears last week, and I’d assume they are preparing for him to be doubled, so I’d expect some adjustments and for TJH to have a solid game, but it’s not a good matchup by the numbers. However, Tyler Higbee got them for 5/40/1 in Week 1. You’re using D’Andre Swift, who is not game script dependent at all. You’d prefer them playing from behind, which is very possible. Jamaal Williams had a season-high 49% snap share last week and has 10+ touches in all three games, so he's locked in solid play when the matchup isn’t scary, which it is not. This doesn’t appear to be a good week to use Jared Goff, since it could be close and lower scoring.
Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Players I like more than usual: Robby Anderson, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb
Players I’m neutral on: Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin, Chuba Hubbard, Sam Darnold, Royce Freeman
Players I like less than usual: D.J. Moore
Longshot Plays: Terrace Marshall, Tommy Tremble
Notes: We should see Trevon Diggs on DJ Moore, so it’ll have to be Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall stepping up, and I like both of their chances. Maybe even Tommy Tremble can make a play with a solid matchup. Chuba Hubbard played 40 snaps with Royce Freeman playing 11, so Chuba is the guy for now with 15+ touches likely. He should produce with volume in the run and pass game. I don’t trust Sam Darnold with a challenging matchup on the road. This may not go well.
Dak Prescott is playing at an elite level to open the season, so I’m not too concerned about his prospects. It’s just a question of whether they run for their TDs. I do think he and CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper will combine for strong stats. The Panthers did just lose #1 pick CB Jaycee Horn. This secondary let Brandin Cooks run wild for 9/112 last week. The Panthers have been tough on the run, but Ezekiel Elliott has a tougher matchup. The Panthers are giving up league-lows in FPG (7.6) and rushing yards per game (31.3) to RBs, but they’ve also only played NYJ, NO, and Hou. They did handle Alvin Kamara, who had only 8/5 rushing in Week 2.
Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)
Players I like more than usual: Zach Pascal
Players I’m neutral on: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Jaylen Waddle
Players I like less than usual: Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman, Jacoby Brissett, DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: The Colts OL is decimated, so this could get ugly against a strong defense. I do like Zach Pascal in the slot, but there is downside if a gimpy Carson Wentz is bad. I’d have to think Michael Pittman will see a lot of Xavien Howard, but even if they play sides I’m concerned about him given the circumstances. Jonathan Taylor isn’t getting the targets, but this one should at least be relatively close, since the Dolphins are coming off a poor showing by Jacoby Brissett. At least Peyton Barber of all people posted 23/111/1 rushing and 3/31 receiving against them last week. Nyhiem Hines will get his, so he’s a decent bet for 10+ points.
I can’t say I’m confident in any Dolphin, but clearly Jalen Waddle is the best option after he saw 12 targets from Brissett last week. The Colts are also down EDGE Kwity Paye and CB Rock Ya-Sin, which helps. Their other players like DaVante Parker, Will Fuller, Mike Gesicki, and Myles Gaskin are more use-them-if-you-need types. Though Brissett seems to look for Gesicki a lot.
Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
Players I like more than usual: Odell Beckham
Players I’m neutral on: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Baker Mayfield, Donovan Peoples-Jones. Rashard Higgins, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Harrison Bryant, Dalvin Cook,
Players I like less than usual: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison, K.J. Osborn
Longshot Plays: Tyler Conklin
Notes: I’m very concerned about the Vikings’ ability to hold up in pass protection after seeing the Browns devour Justin Fields and the Bears. Their fill-in LT has been great the last two weeks, though, and #1 pick Christian Darrisaw is actually expected to play. If they can protect, it’s not that bad of a matchup for Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and CB Greg Newsome, their #1 pick is out. Dalvin Cook should go, but it's a tough matchup against a Browns’ defense that’s giving up just 3.0 YPC to RBs through three weeks.
The Vikings have a million guys on the injury report, but they should be healthier than they’ve been on defense with Anthony Barr back. But I definitely like Odell Beckham’s chances today, the Vikings give up the most FPG to outside receivers so far and they play sides and do not match up, so they can find matchups for OBJ. You really can’t predict anyone else with five other WRs/TEs involved each week. Baker Mayfield is definitely looking better based on the matchup, and it is possible this one turns into a higher-scoring affair. Chris Carson (12/80/1 rushing) and Joe Mixon (29/127/1) each got it done in this matchup this season, so Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are looking fine.
New York Giants (0-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Players I like more than usual:
Players I’m neutral on: Alvin Kamara, Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, Deonte Harris, Adam Trautman, Juwan Johnson, Kenny Stills, Chris Hogan
Players I like less than usual: Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay
Longshot Plays: Marquez Callaway, Kadarius Toney, Evan Engram
Notes: Obviously the Saints need Alvin Kamara, but it’s a wasteland otherwise. The Giants defense just lost LB Blake Martinez for the season and they’re giving up 165.6 scrimmage yards per game to RBs so far, so Kamara is looking good. Marquez Calloway at least showed signs of life last week, and the matchup is decent if you need a reach.
I can’t say I love the Giants, either. It’s a tough matchup for Saquon Barkley, so I’d lower expectations. It’s not easy to trust Daniel Jones after last week, not all his fault with WRs Shepard and Slayton going down and out this week. We’ll likely see Kadarius Toney play, and maybe play a lot, and in the slot. He ran the most routes among Giants’ WRs last week with 31 and Slot WR Jakobi Meyers posted 9/94 receiving in this matchup last week. Evan Engram should also be active, if you’re that desperate.
Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New York Jets (0-3)
Players I like more than usual: Derrick Henry, Corey Davis
Players I’m neutral on: Jamison Crowder, Michael Carter
Players I like less than usual: Ryan Tannehill, Chester Rogers, Josh Reynolds, Marcus Johnson
Longshot Plays: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Zach Wilson
Notes: It’s Derrick Henry and that’s it for the Titans. If you want more details, check out our Week 4 Game Hub for Ten at NYJ.
I do like Corey Davis in a “revenge game” but more importantly with a good matchup. Davis saw 10 targets (30% share) last week, and Elijah Moore is out. QB Zach Wilson has been under pressure on 46.7% of his dropbacks (2nd-most), but the Titans rank 6th-worst in PFF pass rush grade, and EDGE Bud Dupree (knee) is out this week. Tennessee has surrendered the 3rd-most FPG to opposing WRs (50.1), including four performances of 21.0 fantasy points or more, so Wilson may actually do something. It’s a WRBC otherwise, though, and Jamison Crowder is likely back. Rookie Michael Carter hasn’t done crap, but he’s the only Jets RB you can even consider.
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) Players I like more than usual: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts
Players I’m neutral on: Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, DeVonta Smith, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Jalen Reagor
Notes: I think Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will torch the Eagles, who don’t have a pass rush and who play the highest percentage of zone in the league. That means KC will know exactly what to expect. Philly is giving up the eight-highest completion percentage in the league and probably won’t have an answer for Travis Kelce. Our Greg Cosell noted in his film study this week that the KC line was great blocking up the run last week, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was pretty damn good himself. His lack of targets continues to be a problem, but I think KC will hold a nice lead here the whole game, and the Eagles defense invites opponents to run the ball. Another 100+ yards and a TD should be in order.
Jalen Hurts right now is Mr. Disconnect between fantasy and reality, since he’s been good for fantasy and not good in reality. But he should be good this week, since the Chiefs are dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary and give up the second-most overall FPG to QBs (25.3), and the most rushing FPG (8.33). They play more man-to-man than most, and that leads to running QBs to run. DE Frank Clark and starting CB Charvarius Ward have already been ruled out, which is nice for Hurts. I do like Miles Sanders in this one, but I can’t call the plays, so start at your own risk because this coaching staff seems fairly clueless so far. It’s hard to feel good about any of their
Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)
Players I like more than usual: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk, Chase Edmonds
Players I’m neutral on: Kyler Murray, Rondale Moore, Robert Woods, DeSean Jackson, Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee
Players I like less than usual: DeAndre Hopkins, James Conner, Darrell Henderson
Longshot Plays: A.J. Green, Sony Michel
Notes: The Cards are vulnerable inside, giving up the seventh-most FP out of the slot, and the Rams are great inside with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. We have a high expected total of 54, and while Arizona has been solid against the pass, Kirk Cousins got these guys for 244/3 passing on 32 attempts (7.7 YPA) in Week 2. You can’t use Darrell Henderson with any confidence, assuming he’s active, and if Henderson is active as expected, you can’t expect production from Sony Michel, but he’s a viable longshot if you need him no matter what, and if Henderson pops up on the inactive list, then Sony is a mid-range RB2.
It’s not the easiest of matchups for Kyler Murray, and he’s had his struggles against the Rams. We’re expecting Jalen Ramsey to travel more this week against his arch rival DeAndre Hopkins, but Ramsey has played a ton of slot, so we can’t rule out him being on Christian Kirk a lot. That makes it tough to handicap both players, but we’re giving Kirk the edge in terms of not seeing a ton of Ramsey. But it’s lower expectations all around for the Cardinals. Chase Edmunds should be in good shape, though, and the Rams give up 6+ catches per game to RBs.
Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
Players I like more than usual: D.K. Metcalf, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk
Players I’m neutral on: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, George Kittle, Elijah Mitchell, Kyle Juszczyk
Players I like less than usual: None of note
Longshot Plays: Trey Sermon, Freddie Swain, Will Dissly
Notes: With the 49ers running game in shambles, I like Jimmy Garoppolo and the passing game, even if George Kittle isn’t active. Seattle’s defense is pretty bad right now and there have been huge voids in their zone coverage. HC Kyle Shanahan specializes in finding holes in the defense and getting his receivers wide open. I love WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to do major damage. In the backfield, you’re hoping Eli Mitchell is inactive, and that is expected to be the case, so you can feel okay about using Trey Sermon. Sermon’s a good bet for 10-12 points if Mitchell is out.
For Seattle, use your key guys, and I do like DK Metcalf quite a bit. Tyler Lockett’s presumably good to go, as he practiced fully on Friday. No Gerald Everrett, so Will Dissly is in play, but so is Freddie Swain as a deep sleeper. He looked good on tape last week. Chris Carson got dinged up last week, but he is fine and used to dealing with this tough 49er front. He got 13/83 scrimmage in his only game against the 49ers last season.
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)
Players I like more than usual: Mark Andrews, Noah Fant
Players I’m neutral on: Lamar Jackson, Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton
Players I like less than usual: Marquise Brown, Melvin Gordon, Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, Sammy Watkins, Rashod Bateman
Longshot Plays: Teddy Bridgewater, Tim Patrick
Notes: Lamar Jackson is banged up and dealing with a back issue, which is a little shaky, and it is a concern here. The Broncos haven’t really been challenged, but The Broncos are allowing a league-low 11.9 FPG and Lamar is still without LT Ronnie Stanley. I’m lowering expectations for him and Marquise Brown, at least. Mark Andrews seems like the safest play. I do not want to deal with their backfield today, especially since Le’Veon Bell may be up. It’s really bad for fantasy.
The Ravens have a ton of guys who didn’t practice late in the week, yet they could play. But check on the status of DT Brandon Williams, who was activated off the covid list. If he’s in, that helps their run defense. Melvin Gordon isn’t a lock to be active, though. If he’s out, that’s obviously big for Javonte Williams. We have no idea what the Ravens defense is right now, but we know they have given up the third-most passing yards per game (331.7) to QBs through three weeks, even though they did shut Jared Goff down last week and held him to 9.1 FPG. Teddy Bridgewater is viable, and Tim Patrick usually does something of note. The Ravens did get smoked by TEs Travis Kelce and Darren Waller in Weeks 1-2, so Noah Fant is a top-12 guy.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Players I like more than usual: Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Players I’m neutral on: Najee Harris, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan
Players I like less than usual: Eric Ebron
Longshot Plays: Pat Freiermuth, Allen Lazard
Notes: The Steelers are a mess, but at least Ben Roethlisberger will likely throw it 40+ times with dump offs to Najee Harris and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and he will feed the rock to Diontae Johnson, especially with Chase Claypool out. These guys may not rack up many yards, but they should combine for 15-20 catches. Starting CB Kevin King is doubtful for the Packers, which helps.
It’s still a tougher matchup for Aaron Rodgers, who won’t likely have his best offensive lineman in Elgton Jenkins, who is doubtful. The Steelers will have TJ Watt back this week. The Steelers have allowed five WRs TDs so far, and Ja’Marr Chase posted 4/65/2 receiving in this matchup last week, so Davante Adams should be fine. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is out, which gives Allen Lazard a chance to do something of note. TE Robert Tonyan might need to stay in and help block a bit, but the Steelers did give up 7/99/1 receiving to Darren Waller and Foster Moreau in Week 2. Aaron Jones should dominate the touches, at least, since AJ Dillon is not ready to break out right now.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Players I like more than usual: Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, Jakobi Meyers
Players I’m neutral on: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith
Players I like less than usual: Damien Harris, J.J. Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson
Longshot Plays: Mac Jones, Nelson Agholor, Cameron Brate, Brandon Bolden
Notes: Tha Pats are near the top in terms of most defensive stats against the pass, but they’ve also faced Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, and Jameis Winston. If they can, Tom Brady and the Bucs should keep their foot on the gas even if they’re winning big, and I bet they will. I’d guess the Pats will dare the Bucs to run on them, and with Gio Bernard out and Ron Jones having hands of stone, Fournette is looking promising. Rob Gronkowski is out, so it should be about the WRs in this one. I like Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Mike Evans in that order.
I think the Pats have to come out throwing and stay with the pass the whole day, since their running game can’t be counted on against this run D. Tampa is giving up the most passing yards per game so far, and the fourth-highest completion rate at 72.22%. Due to volume alone, Mac Jones should easily get 15+ FP. Starting CB Jamel Dean is out, and so is DE Jason Pierre-Paul, which is big. Jakobi Meyers is looking at 8-10 targets in this one, and it could easily be 12+ as they come out throwing and stay throwing the whole game. Meyers last week, with James White knocked out in the second quarter, led the Patriots with 9/94 receiving on 14 targets, and he’s seen at least a 20% target share or better every week. Teams are picking on slot CB Ross Cockrell, who has given up a healthy 1.46 yards per slot coverage snap as Sean Murphy-Bunting’s replacement. Mac will also have N'Keal Harry as an option, along with the steady Kendrick Bourne. Brandon Bolden is probably the White replacement, but it’s a bad situation with JJ Taylor well in the mix. It doesn’t look like Damien Harris will be asked to pick up much of the slack for White, and it’s a brutal matchup on the ground.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)
Players I like more than usual: Darren Waller, Derek Carr, Austin Ekeler
Players I’m neutral on: Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen
Players I like less than usual: Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Jared Cook
Longshot Plays: Peyton Barber, Hunter Renfrow
Notes: Derek Carr has 380+ yards with 2 TDs in every game this season and 315+ yards and 2+ TDs in his last seven full games. The Charges have been good against the pass overall, but Patrick Mahomes got them for 260/3 passing last week, and they give up a 69.57% completion rate, the 13th highest in the league. Las Vegas is also first in plays per game with 78.3 and he’s putting the ball up 43+ times a game already this year, so I like all his receivers, including Hunter Renfrow with a good matchup in the slot. I would not expect Josh Jacobs to play, and if he’s out it’s going to be Peyton Barber carrying the load. Kenyan Drake is not someone they are loving right now, and he’s mainly the receiving guy. They just don't want to run him. Adam Gase was right.
The Raiders defense is respectable, but Justin Herbert has been brilliant the last two weeks, and Mike Williams is unstoppable. Austin Eckler has been used well, and he’s been extremely productive, which should continue. Basically, it’s those three guys and Keenan Allen, all must-starts with a beatable matchup, and that’s it.
